What a week it was last week. Trump made up s*** about how he's the best President at calling the families of those killed in combat - something that was demonstrably and demonstrated to be false - in order to avoid answering the question that he has continued to avoid for about three weeks now: what the f*** happened in Niger?

He then had to play catch up on his consoling duties, so he called the widow of Sgt. La David Johnson while she was riding with family and close friends - including Rep. Frederica Wilson - to collect her husband's remains, and told her that her husband "knew what he signed up for." Rep. Wilson jumped all over this appallingly tone deaf comment, at which point the s*** got turned up to 11...thousand...with Trump calling everyone a liar and sending out General Kelly to deflect attention by using his own personal tragedy of losing his son in combat as a shield and then flat-out lying about Rep. Wilson to make her look bad. Trump insulted Wilson by saying that her attire is ridiculous while confusing her with Rep. Maxine Walters. Later reports stated that Trump seemed to be struggling to remember the name of Sgt. Johnson on the original call, something that gained credence when he could not remember Myeisha Johnson's name when insulting her in the press - referring to her as "the wife" and "the widow" but not by name. Myeisha Johnson is currently pregnant with the couple's third child; she and La David had been childhood sweethearts.

Remember; this all started because Trump does not want to talk about Niger.

What we know about Niger is that a squad of Green Berets got ambushed by a significantly larger force of ISIS-friendly combatants - perhaps a 4-1 advantage - and 4 US soldiers were killed, including Sgt. Johnson, whose remains were not recovered until 48 hours after the fight. I have seen claims that he put up a beacon after everyone else had been evacuated - suggesting they left him out there still alive - and also that his remains were heavily mutilated, but I have not seen any confirmation of this. At best, this is as bad a f*** up as Benghazi...at best!

Those troops were sent into harm's way without air cover and without back-up, save some French forces who were under orders not to open fire. They were in pick-up trucks, not armored Humvees. Reports now state that they were lured into a meeting in a village known to be host to hostile forces and duped into staying longer than safety allowed. This allowed the militant forces to set up not only the main ambush, but a secondary ambush site on their escape route. When the Green Berets retreated from the initial ambush, they ran smack bang into the secondary force. Sgt. Johnson appears to have been left at the original combat site and so was not evacuated when help finally arrived, some hours later.

So about that help and support. Chad, a neighboring country to Niger's east - has been the most competent and cooperative ally in the fight against ISIS and al Qaeda-inspired groups in the region - including Boko Haram. Most (if not all) the international operations combating these militant forces are based in Chad for this very reason, including that of the US. Chad was very active in Niger...until very recently.

In September, the Trump administration added Chad to the list of countries on the latest iteration of the Muslim ban. The decision shocked and confused almost everyone, the decision to ban Chad being described as "puzzling" and "inexplicable". It turns out that it was due to them not supplying a fresh sample of a passport for review by the administration - because they were awaiting new supplies of the special paper used for passports - so on the banned list they went. Venezuela was added too, presumably so that the banned list looks a lot less Muslimy.

Within days of hitting the banned list, Chad began withdrawing its troops from Niger - an action that coincided with a steadily increasing rate of attacks by militant forces in that country. Chad had completely exited Niger about a week before the attack on the Green Berets. So, we still have massive gaps in knowledge about what the f*** happened in Niger. But we do have some strong indications as to why Trump doesn't want to talk about it: his domestic political bulls*** may have lead directly to the deaths of US troops in combat.

The Russia scandal is way worse than Watergate, and now this is shaping up to be way worse than Benghazi.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Next round of elections is November 2018, where the entire House of Representatives and 1/3rd of the Senate is up for re-election. Congress typically returns about 96% of incumbents each election, so it's going to be hard for the Democrats to take the House, especially, due to the extreme gerrymandering of districts, but the Senate too as a pure quirk of timing has more Democrats up for re-lection in the Senate than Republicans.

Having said that, Democratic majorities in both houses were washed away by a Republican tsunami in 2010 - the first mid-term of Obama's presidency - so there is that. It is actually typical for the party of the President to get a right spanking in the first mid-term, usually because no one gets done what they said they would do on the campaign trail, and people are oddly surprised by this.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

The best precedent here remains Watergate. It was something like 18 months between the break-in and Nixon's resignation, during which time he looked more and more guilty and more and more irrational in his defense of himself. He finally went, though, when Congressional Republicans - in fear of getting shellacked in the now looming mid-term elections because they were saddled with the all-but dead carcass of a deeply unpopular president - went to the White House and told Nixon that they'd impeach him unless he quit. This was in August before the November elections.

I can see this exact same scenario playing out here. Trump has historic negatives in poll after poll. The healthcare reform plan was a horror story, his tax plan is worse. By the time the next election comes around, Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents will have them on record as having voted with Trump on both issues. They'll hang Trump around every Republican neck, and hope to beat them that way (the same way Republicans beat with Democrats with their votes for the then hated but now highly popular Obamacare).

What remains to be seen is whether the current crop of Republicans has the same strong instinct for self-preservation as their 1970s predecessors. Ryan for sure does not, but he may not be Speaker by then, while McConnell has shown that he will do whatever it takes to protect himself or, in this case, his Senate majority.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Its worth remembering that Flake is no wishy washy liberal leaning republican. He's pretty right wing, and his statements are very damning.

Problem is, he's standing down, because he knows pretty much for certain, that the Republican base don't want him - and that's a problem, because we have here a traditional right wing, albeit libertarian, Republican traditionalist, for whom the party and house have become intolerable, and the voting base of republicans in Arizona are more or less aligned with Trump's rhetoric.

America is proper f**ked.

"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

A lot of this is down to gerrymandering, because district representatives no longer fear an opponent from the other side, they fear an opponent from their outside. As only each party's base typically turns out for the primaries, candidates have to tack to the extreme edges in order to stand out and secure their position amongst the party faithful. This is why the House of Representatives is such a s*** show, because it's full of ideologues who would be crucified in the next primary if they're seen having dinner, let alone making policy, with the "enemy" from the other side.

While Senate seats are statewide, and thus theoretically immune to gerrymandering, the ideological purity demanded of district representatives gets applied to Senate candidates too, because they're on the same primary ballot in front of the same limited segment of voters as their House counterparts.

So, yes, Flake was almost certain to face a primary challenge next year, and was almost certain to lose. However, while he is going out in a blaze of glory, it's not like he's been particularly difficult - he even voted for TrumpCare...twice...despite it being clear that his constituents would be among the hardest hit by the legislation.

Nevada has offered up a Tea Party candidate before - they put Sharron Angle up against "dead man walking" Harry Reid in 2010, because Reid had made the political calculation that it was better to help pass ObamaCare - and lose his seat - than to cave to the likes of the Tea Party. So the Tea Party put up their preferred candidate who was sure to walk into Reid's seat...and she lost.

Nevada is a weird state. Flake stepping down paves the way for an extreme right wing candidate in next year's mid-term, but that doesn't mean it's a lock to get that person seated. With incumbents winning about 96% of the time in Congressional elections, I'm sure Democrats are now frothing a little at the opportunity to have a go at this vacant seat.

FYI, Sharron Angle is still out there and still trying to get elected to something from Nevada.

Edited by Ray in Houston (25 Oct 2017 3.08pm)

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Don't you just love politics?

Mind you, with Lake Niger drying up with climate change and so on it's hardly surprising that area is becoming highly militarised. Think we'll see more of this kind of conflict in the coming years over dwindling basic resources.