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Some thoughts on the West Ham game
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 victor43  St. Albans 18 Oct 16 5.59pm |
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Had some thoughts on the West Ham game about how we were slightly unlucky but have been punished by our habit of conceding the first goal this season. I also think the second half improvement was not just down to Cabaye/ Pardew, and we should be careful before jumping to any conclusions about how we'll do with Yohan instead of Ledley. Short article - have a read here: I also discussed how Benteke is getting on with his penalty miss in mind. Appreciate any comments - thanks!
Blog: Andy Johnson's Magic Hat [Link] Twitter: [Tweet Link]
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| OldFella London 18 Oct 16 7.42pm |
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Originally posted by victor43
Had some thoughts on the West Ham game about how we were slightly unlucky but have been punished by our habit of conceding the first goal this season. I also think the second half improvement was not just down to Cabaye/ Pardew, and we should be careful before jumping to any conclusions about how we'll do with Yohan instead of Ledley. Short article - have a read here: I also discussed how Benteke is getting on with his penalty miss in mind. Appreciate any comments - thanks! Enjoyed that - a very good read/thoughtful analysis. Particularly interested re the 0.76 penalty probability stat, and Benteke's record being broadly in line with that.
Jackson.. Wan Bissaka.... Sansom.. Nicholas.. Cannon.. Guehi.... Zaha... Thomas.. Byrne... Holton.. Rogers.. that should do it.. |
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| Brinscall Eagle Brinscall Lancashire/ Villamartin ... 18 Oct 16 7.44pm |
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Good read thanks for posting !
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| Noz North Hampshire 18 Oct 16 8.31pm |
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I'm assuming those are "game stats" rather than " game states"?
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| Dan1994 Wallington 18 Oct 16 8.46pm |
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You've got yourself a new follower, I really enyoed that (y)
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| glaziermart 18 Oct 16 9.09pm |
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Fantastic post. Love to see an intelligent analysis, instead of the usual knee jerk reactions like 'sack Pardew' 'this player is s**t' and so on. We are actually 9th in the Premier, and this was our first defeat in six games!!! I tried on another thread to explain that our home form is actually improving, not in this game, although the weather conditions also played a part, but overall we had played well against Bournemouth and Stoke (we simply took our chances against Stoke) and our only other defeat apart from Wet Spam, was against Pulis and his baggies, in which we had half a team missing through a combination of injuries and players returning late from the Euros. Sometimes the stats do not fully tell the story. But this OP has put together his analysis far better than i could, so i admire the considered way he has presented the facts.
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| PA Bedfordshire 18 Oct 16 9.43pm |
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Originally posted by Noz
I'm assuming those are "game stats" rather than " game states"? If you read the article, it's 'game states'
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thai-eagle  chiang mai 19 Oct 16 3.10am |
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Well written, good thinking and I welcome you back anytime. Possible to subscribe?
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| Holmesdale Hibs Sydenham Hill 19 Oct 16 5.32am |
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Good article, thanks for posting. I'm quite surprised a penalty is 0.76 of an expected goal, I'd have thought it would be higher although not sure why being a Palace fan. We should also remember that West Ham are a decent team. They might be on a bad run but they have good players and they were always going to sort out their form at some point.
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| victor43 St. Albans 19 Oct 16 9.24am |
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Thanks for the kind comments guys! Glad this kind of stuff gets people interested. Re subscribing - the easiest way is probably my twitter account (if you have Twitter that is), but if not you can 'follow' the blog if you have an account on Wordpress. I may start up a facebook account as I know quite a few Palace fans use that to get their news etc...
Blog: Andy Johnson's Magic Hat [Link] Twitter: [Tweet Link]
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| victor43 St. Albans 19 Oct 16 9.25am |
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Originally posted by PA
If you read the article, it's 'game states' Yes it is game states. Perhaps not the most intuitive expression - some people refer to it as 'score effects', i.e. the effect the score has on the pattern of the game.
Blog: Andy Johnson's Magic Hat [Link] Twitter: [Tweet Link]
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| victor43 St. Albans 19 Oct 16 9.28am |
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Originally posted by Holmesdale Hibs
Good article, thanks for posting. I'm quite surprised a penalty is 0.76 of an expected goal, I'd have thought it would be higher although not sure why being a Palace fan. We should also remember that West Ham are a decent team. They might be on a bad run but they have good players and they were always going to sort out their form at some point. Yes that 0.76 value is the average conversion rate of penalties taken from thousands of penalties. So you might see a temporary phase of people missing a lot of pens, but in the long run it settles down about 3 in 4. Definitely, West Ham are a good team, especially attacking wise. They just happened to sort out their defence for this game as well!
Blog: Andy Johnson's Magic Hat [Link] Twitter: [Tweet Link]
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