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Y Ddraig Goch Flag In The Crowd 26 May 16 3.00pm Send a Private Message to Y Ddraig Goch Add Y Ddraig Goch as a friend

In the grand scheme of things it will in all likelihood make diddly squat difference whether we stay or go.

Although a few political careers may be consigned to the dustbin.

 


the dignified don't even enter in the game

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Hoof Hearted 26 May 16 3.42pm

One observation.... since our cup final defeat, the debate on here is more friendly, sensible and gentlemanly.

Bravo every one and may the best team win!

 

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johnfirewall Flag 26 May 16 4.10pm Send a Private Message to johnfirewall Add johnfirewall as a friend

Originally posted by JohnyBoy


i do think its fair to assume that we would be worse off, cant say exactly by how much

And the world is demographically been divided into trading blocks whether we like it or not. The US, Japan, China, India, the EU, are the power brokers followed by Brazil&Russia and Africa. Isolationism in the global economy is just foolish, and is backed up by all independent forecasts.

Why are you quoting the governments guesswork then?

Who exactly are we isolating ourselves from? Of course we have to negotiate new deals but what happen in the meantime, do we not import / export anything overseas?

 

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slubglurge Flag welling 26 May 16 4.20pm Send a Private Message to slubglurge Add slubglurge as a friend

No one has to convince me; its out all the way. 10 years ago my wifes company offered all the staff a redundacy payment to leave. My wife and two friends stayed, they then refilled the posts with Lithuanians who had just joined the EU. They haven't had a payrise since

 

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JohnyBoy Flag 26 May 16 4.35pm Send a Private Message to JohnyBoy Add JohnyBoy as a friend

Originally posted by johnfirewall

Why are you quoting the governments guesswork then?

Who exactly are we isolating ourselves from? Of course we have to negotiate new deals but what happen in the meantime, do we not import / export anything overseas?

The 'governments guesswork' i have used is based on independent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, the treasury, IFS, the world bank and over 90% of economists who currently predict that the economy would be hit by between 1.5% - 9.5%. My own judgement would be somewhere in the middle, so like everyone else (atleast with any credibility) i would say that i dont know exactly by how much we would be worse off but almosy certainly still worse off.
You may prefer to use your own economic models, that is your right, but to dismiss all of the forecasts we have been given is perhaps naive.
Isolationism would imply that trading tariffs (exact % TBD) would be introduced and it is likely from many studies on trade tarrifs and protectionism that we would not get as good a deal as could be negotiated by the eu, as they would insert MFN (most favoured nation) clauses into their agreements which means that if say the US did a trade deal on bananas or whatever with the eu, they would be prevented to do a better deal with another trading block or country. The tariffs we would incur would need to be reciprocated to defend our domestic market but the sum of the parts suggest both parties would be worse off.

 

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-TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 26 May 16 5.23pm Send a Private Message to -TUX- Add -TUX- as a friend

Originally posted by Y Ddraig Goch

In the grand scheme of things it will in all likelihood make diddly squat difference whether we stay or go.

Although a few political careers may be consigned to the dustbin.

Is the correct answer.

 


Time to move forward together.

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Sportyteacher Flag London 27 May 16 8.53am Send a Private Message to Sportyteacher Add Sportyteacher as a friend

Originally posted by Kermit8

Latest Mori poll: 1,000 randomly asked

Remain a member of the European Union: 48%

Leave the European Union: 35%

Undecided: 14%

Would not vote:3%

I make that 65% idiots/potential idiots according to monkeychops and 35% the enlightened, sensible brave new world few also according to monkeychops.


[Link]

Edited by Kermit8 (18 May 2016 10.05pm)[/quote

I, for one, can't wait for this EU referendum to get out of the way. Despite the importance and ramifications of the vote, this is ONE subject for debate that has clearly limited Government resources from getting on with its main day-to-day work, and with a LONG summer recess just around the corner.

No wonder very little gets achieved within this country e.g. maintenance /modernisation of infrastructure.

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 27 May 16 10.28am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

I have to say this one made me laugh or cry maybe, but perhaps we should pay attention to our mums rather than angry white disestablishment male types who see no value in education who, if they manage to get their misinformation believed would make us all as miserable as them....but anti-intellectualism really isnt that cool is it when you consider what the leave vote really is about
Higher enemployment
Higher inflation
Higher interest rates
Falling property prices
Reduced funding for public services (including NHS, pensions, education, defence, welfare and transport)
We would lose the right to live, work and retire abroad (except if you are rich enough)
Increased risk of terrorism (according to MI6)
Reduced investment/jobs from foreign companies (e.g what Bloomberg and Fujitsu have said this morning.)
Reduced workers rights e.g. paternity leave
£4300 worse off per household (assuming average 2 adult family earning £23.5k pa)
Customs duties re-introduced
Co-ordinated defence/peace policy which has helped Europe achieve the longest period of peace since roman times.
Higher debt servicing costs (currently 6% of public spending likely rising to 9-10%)
Co-ordinated environmental policy (pollution has no boundaries)
A say in the rules and regulations we would still have to comply with if we want to continue to trade with europe.
Trade tarrifs re-introduced (probably at WTO levels 15-20%)
Against the advice of all major independent institutions (imf, oecd, world bank, treasury, atleast 90% of economists, all living PM's and former PM's, all major political parties except UKIP, DUP & respect party)

Are remain voters all really little mummys boys?? Really?? Or is it just fanciful thinking by those leave voters on there downers that an immigrant free Britain would bring some kind of depressed utopia....and they think if they throw in a little bit of name-calling that we will come round to their irrational way of thinking...Really?


Either you're George Osborne's think tank or echo.

A lot of what you've posted has been shown to be fantasy, calculations made on worst case scenarios with absolutely no positives whatsoever included or come from the cosy establishment that have vested interests and allies within their protected web of expertise. Where were they before 2008 and other obviously awful economic recessions?

Even a leftie who you respect has said he wants out, yet on here that wasn't posted. Yes, the mature Paul Mason who said he wanted out but had a problem voting out because those nasty tories, BJ and MG, would be leading Britain. How mature. Consider voting in because he doesn't like them? Why not vote out and in the next General Election and try and elect a centre left party which is what a few pro-immigration but anti-EU lefties I've heard say. That's democracy.

Martin Lewis had it right. If you can embrace risk and see a bright future then it can sway you to vote out. If you cannot take risk then vote in. You'll probably have a little less money for a while and there may be economic shocks on the way, but the upside could be worth it. 'The Agenda' programme has been removed from the ITV website. All other episodes in the series have been left there to view. Funny that.

I'm tired of this country pandering to the EU and big business, which is what this Union is all for. SME's are where the future can be for this country and a fairer distribution of wealth with less fat cats and less emphasis on short-term goals for end of year only and focus on share prices. Just look at the German economy for proof.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (27 May 2016 11.17am)

 


COYP

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 27 May 16 10.43am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

The 'governments guesswork' i have used is based on independent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, the treasury, IFS, the world bank and over 90% of economists who currently predict that the economy would be hit by between 1.5% - 9.5%. My own judgement would be somewhere in the middle, so like everyone else (atleast with any credibility) i would say that i dont know exactly by how much we would be worse off but almosy certainly still worse off.
You may prefer to use your own economic models, that is your right, but to dismiss all of the forecasts we have been given is perhaps naive.
Isolationism would imply that trading tariffs (exact % TBD) would be introduced and it is likely from many studies on trade tarrifs and protectionism that we would not get as good a deal as could be negotiated by the eu, as they would insert MFN (most favoured nation) clauses into their agreements which means that if say the US did a trade deal on bananas or whatever with the eu, they would be prevented to do a better deal with another trading block or country. The tariffs we would incur would need to be reciprocated to defend our domestic market but the sum of the parts suggest both parties would be worse off.

The other guesswork you've used is from closed meetings where the result comes before the calculation has been done. If you saw Paul Hilton on QT last night or on tv before you'll know that these £4,300 numbers and such like are fabricated g&sh. He was strategy director for David Cameron. He now isn't and is coming clean on how false all the sh1t that the Euro-sceptic and pro-exit if no real reform is agreed Cameron & Osborne are being.

And the high % fall in GDP is no doubt calculated without expansion in other markets. What's our export level outside the EU? 55%. How much of our ecnomy is SME's? Is it 80%. There will no doubt be a difficult period but it'll be worth it. Life lasts longer than 2,5 years or 1 economic cycle and it's not just for now or your next house move. This is an opportunity to break free, determine our own future and plan our own domestic policies.

 


COYP

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JohnyBoy Flag 27 May 16 2.13pm Send a Private Message to JohnyBoy Add JohnyBoy as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Either you're George Osborne's think tank or echo.

A lot of what you've posted has been shown to be fantasy, calculations made on worst case scenarios with absolutely no positives whatsoever included or come from the cosy establishment that have vested interests and allies within their protected web of expertise. Where were they before 2008 and other obviously awful economic recessions?

Even a leftie who you respect has said he wants out, yet on here that wasn't posted. Yes, the mature Paul Mason who said he wanted out but had a problem voting out because those nasty tories, BJ and MG, would be leading Britain. How mature. Consider voting in because he doesn't like them? Why not vote out and in the next General Election and try and elect a centre left party which is what a few pro-immigration but anti-EU lefties I've heard say. That's democracy.

Martin Lewis had it right. If you can embrace risk and see a bright future then it can sway you to vote out. If you cannot take risk then vote in. You'll probably have a little less money for a while and there may be economic shocks on the way, but the upside could be worth it. 'The Agenda' programme has been removed from the ITV website. All other episodes in the series have been left there to view. Funny that.

I'm tired of this country pandering to the EU and big business, which is what this Union is all for. SME's are where the future can be for this country and a fairer distribution of wealth with less fat cats and less emphasis on short-term goals for end of year only and focus on share prices. Just look at the German economy for proof.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (27 May 2016 11.17am)

Rudi: wrt Paul Mason, i think it was fairly clear by my example that whilst i think he is worth listening to I would never subscribe to his far left economic policies. Similarly with Patrick Minford or monterism/Thatcherism far right economic policies i would never vote or advocate such policies...infact i often wonder what was worse.
But i really dont think it wise to be so dismissive of IMF, OECD, BofE etc....and using words like guesswork or fantasy. I worked as an economist/fund manager for 20 years and worked on or had oversight responsibility for some complex economic models...but i assure you NO ONE has the sophisticated models that the treasury or BofE have at there disposal. They have access to the most data inputs, historical analysis and forecasting tools you can possibly imagine....and the financial markets stop to hear the outcome of there anslysis (hanging on every word) because thats what policy is based on. If i had told the teams i worked with that they were just fantasy or guesses (hey lets use our own!) they would have thought i had become frankly delusional.
Data is data and we can interpret them differently but i find it very very hard to believe that the economists at the IMF or OECD would have somehow massaged the figures because of some grand conspiracy by George Osborne who decided to call in a favour and ask them to distort the outcome...surely this is absurd.
The 330,000 immigration figures were similarly disputed by UKIP who just seem to be trying to discredit any figures because they might not serve sufficiently their referendum objectives i.e. they have a vested political interest.
I have agreed that we need to work on the eu from within, not to say i agree with having 'elected' representatives to oversee the shape of bananas or the quality of tobacco. TBH i find it almost ridiculous to even hear it being suggested that we would hold elections for such posts but it gives UKIP the chance to accuse the trade bodies and regulators of being unelected and therefore undemocratic....and unless those allotments in Norwood have suddenly developed a tropical climate when was the last time you saw a banana grove or tobacco plantation in the uk?
The reality is that we have eu elections that apparently has had 73 laws imposed on the uk over the last 10 years or so (source: page 81 of this thread) that we voted against....although when i asked, nobody on here was able to tell me what 1 of these were (without googling)..paternity leave or workers rights maybe?.... We should remember that our own house of lords (also unelected) rejected 60 laws from the house of commons just in the last sitting, but what the conspiracy theorists should be asking is why UKIP (which hold 1/3rd) of the UK's seats in Brussels has the worst (out of more than 700 parties) attendance record and voted against (in an aye or nay vote) the UK getting the rebate (worth approx £7-8 billion)....surely they were only thinking of their political vested interests again and not of the UK economy? Bet you didnt see that emblazoned on boris' blunderbus!!
Lastly Rudi...you may have a maverick attitude towards betting and risk and say it will be worth us going through 2.5 years of smaller growth for the longer term gain. I say that this gamble is simply not worth taking and will cause considerable damage to our NHS (affecting the quality of life of millions), pensions (old people), schools (kids) and welfare (the poor and disabled)....not to mention £4,300 for every household,....these may be taken for granted by some but are simply not things to be gambled with IMO.

 

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silvertop Flag Portishead 27 May 16 2.34pm Send a Private Message to silvertop Add silvertop as a friend

Originally posted by slubglurge

No one has to convince me; its out all the way. 10 years ago my wifes company offered all the staff a redundacy payment to leave. My wife and two friends stayed, they then refilled the posts with Lithuanians who had just joined the EU. They haven't had a payrise since

What makes you think it will be any different after an out vote? Initially, you will be delighted as we lift the drawbridge and issue in a period of wage led inflation coupled with economic decline and political instability. Still, there will be no greasy foreigners cluttering up our doctor's surgeries or taking our women and jobs etc.

I also think it hilarious that people think: UK big economy = strong bargaining power to renegotiate trade deals. Actually it is one isolated medium weight country v massive trading block. Trust me, they will dictate every term.

On this, when we finally manage to secure a deal [and we will not survive without one], the EU will have dictated at least one caveat on which they show no sign of budging: free movement to EU citizens. You only have to look at Switzerland, one of those countries who outers cite as how it can be done. In fact, they spent years negotiating deals with the EU. They had to. And one of the conditions imposed on them was free movement. What makes you think it will be any different for us?

So, the Swiss had a referendum and elected to limit EU citizen entry. Cue stringent retaliation from the EU which has only just started to punish little Switzerland.

No, after our happy honeymoon of xenophobia, the EU will impose tough conditions on any trade deal which will likely involve us having to pay significant sums to the EU [perhaps more than we do now?]; obey many EU directives [like those other heroes of independence Norway have to]; and accept free movement [like Switzerland]. And this will all be offered and accepted by little England on a take it or leave it basis.

So, by all means, vote for international isolation and ultimate humiliation. However, remember - those pesky Latvians et al may be cleared out of your wife's work for now; but they will be back, assuming of course that her employers do not go bust in the interim period.

 

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silvertop Flag Portishead 27 May 16 2.42pm Send a Private Message to silvertop Add silvertop as a friend

Originally posted by Sportyteacher

Originally posted by Kermit8

Latest Mori poll: 1,000 randomly asked

Remain a member of the European Union: 48%

Leave the European Union: 35%

Undecided: 14%

Would not vote:3%

I make that 65% idiots/potential idiots according to monkeychops and 35% the enlightened, sensible brave new world few also according to monkeychops.


[Link]

Edited by Kermit8 (18 May 2016 10.05pm)[/quote

I, for one, can't wait for this EU referendum to get out of the way. Despite the importance and ramifications of the vote, this is ONE subject for debate that has clearly limited Government resources from getting on with its main day-to-day work, and with a LONG summer recess just around the corner.

No wonder very little gets achieved within this country e.g. maintenance /modernisation of infrastructure.

Kermit: fear not. Your lot may have only 35% of the vote but a considerably higher % of those who will actually put a cross down. Sadly, it is much more even.

Sporty, don't fret on that. While politicians run around waving their little willies about, the juggernaut that is the civil service continues to run the country; and industry continues to knock out goods and services.

However, that is not to diminish politicians. If the no vote wins, it will just mean that the civil service [and judicial system] will have to undergo a huge wasteful overhaul; and industry will be producing significantly less than it is now; until, of course, we are humiliatingly forced to go begging to the EU when all those massive adjustments will need to be set back to where they are now.

 

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