I will put my hand up and admit that I am scared to make a prediction.

Never felt so many mixed emotions because there is something really odd going on with this election. Trumps rallys are through the roof, the US economy was doing incredibly well before Covid with employment up and the US is fighting less wars abroad than in the last 20 or so years.

On the face of it, Trump should be walking this election, especially against an absolutel basket case of a Democrat candidate against him. And all against a back drop of mass violence and looting in Democrat controlled cities and states. Utter anarchy. Which the Democrats refuse to condemn.

Why on earth would any sensibly minded person vote for Biden? No rationale behind it.

Yet the polls give it to him. And although they got it wrong in 2016, those polling companies would have had to work out why their methodoloy was so wrong and correct it.

British pollsters have caught up and by and large called the 2019 election pretty well. Ditto with the Euros before that.

I usually have zero problem making a call on an election and being willing to take either the slings and arrows that come with the result.

And I called Trump back in 2016. Even back before he got the nomination.

But 2020 is utterly f***ed. Literally the world turned upside down. And we have the major media platforms such as Google and so on deliberately skewing search results along with huge swathes of the rest of the media actively seeking to push Biden. Look at this story about these emails. Lets imagine that a laptop with similar claims about Trumps son had emerged just before the 2016 election. Can you imagine the hysteria about that, even in our own newspapers, let alone those in the US?

Yet in the US, Google scupper it. Twitter stopped people from even re-tweeting the New York Post story.

There is something utterly wrong with how democracy is playing out in the US. Hence I will not call it because I sense the race is rigged.

And to save all the Lefties spewing BS about people not being willing to accept outcomes, lets examine your own behaviour since 2016. Remember Brexit and all your second ref bulls*** because YOU could not accept a result? And in the US all that crap about Russiagate that was meant to see Trump in prison?

Edited by Matov (24 Oct 2020 1.39pm)

Thursdays was the final one, the middle one was cancelled.

I will put my hand up and admit that I am scared to make a prediction.

Never felt so many mixed emotions because there is something really odd going on with this election. Trumps rallys are through the roof, the US economy was doing incredibly well before Covid with employment up and the US is fighting less wars abroad than in the last 20 or so years.

Trump's rallies are an irrelevance. They won't help him as they only preach to the converted. They may very well harm him as the undecided witness irresponsible behaviour, lack of masks and social distancing. The economy was doing well before he became POTUS and if you look at the actual picture the trend has flattened and not increased at all. The oft parroted Trump assertion that there are now "less wars" isn't true either. Trump has come closer to starting new wars with North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran than to ending any of the wars he inherited from Obama. Even the downward overseas troop reduction trend from the Obama years has stalled.

On the face of it, Trump should be walking this election, especially against an absolutel basket case of a Democrat candidate against him. And all against a back drop of mass violence and looting in Democrat controlled cities and states. Utter anarchy. Which the Democrats refuse to condemn.

On the face of it Mickey Mouse would be a shoe in against Trump, who is a genuine "basket case". In 2016 he was the candidate of change. No record to defend, with expansive promises as his currency. Against a compromised (unfairly) Clinton he only just squeezed home and lost the popular vote. This time he has a record. You like it but most don't. Add to that that the lessons of 2016 have been learned by the Dems and it looks a big problem. Of course the violence has been condemned by Biden! It's also been talked up by Trump in an attempt to divert attention away from the reasons why it started in the first place. That there are some who seek to exploit the situation is obvious but it was ever thus.

Why on earth would any sensibly minded person vote for Biden? No rationale behind it.

Biden represents experience and a return to normality. A safe pair of hands who will listen to the science and other experts. Who will lead a team and not just rely on his own self-belief. That's what sensible minded people are voting for!

Yet the polls give it to him. And although they got it wrong in 2016, those polling companies would have had to work out why their methodololy was so wrong and correct it.

British pollsters have caught up and by and large called the 2019 election pretty well. Ditto with the Euros before that.

They have spent a great deal on learning what happened and refined their techniques. Do you really think the US and British pollsters don't co-operate? In some cases they are identical. I would be very surprised if they are so far out this time.

I usually have zero problem making a call on an election and being willing to take either the slings and arrows that come with the result.

And I called Trump back in 2016. Even back before he got the nomination.

You weren't alone and with hindsight it makes some sense. The political system in the USA does need an overhaul and putting someone unconnected with it had some appeal. It has though been a disaster.

But 2020 is utterly f***ed. Literally the world turned upside down. And we have the major media platforms such as Google and so on deliberately skewing search results along with huge swathes of the rest of the media actively seeking to push Biden. Look at this story about these emails. Lets imagine that a laptop with similar claims about Trumps son had emerged just before the 2016 election. Can you imagine the hysteria about that, even in our own newspapers, let alone those in the US?

The world is certainly upside down but Trump seems determined to try to ignore that fact. The mud slung at the MSM and the social media companies is just more diversion by Trump and his rightish lackeys. They don't support Biden at all. They oppose lies and fact check claims. The "laptop" thing is a non-story. If I was an editor I wouldn't cover it either, who-ever was involved. There are heavy suggestions it is a plant. Why for instance was it "taken for repair" to a shop 100s of miles away from where Hunter Biden lives? With that kind of suspicion surrounding it, and the timing, no editor ought to touch it. On top of that it concerns a son who is known to have had some problems., which have not been hidden. It stinks of opportunist dirty tricks and the electorate are not going to fall for them again.

Yet in the US, Google scupper it. Twitter stopped people from even re-tweeting the New York Post story.

As any self-respecting media organisation would.

There is something utterly wrong with how democracy is playing out in the US. Hence I will not call it because I sense the race is rigged.

The only rigging aroma comes from Trump and his desire to try to discount postal votes. Fortunately, the law ought to stop that.

And to save all the Lefties spewing BS about people not being willing to accept outcomes, lets examine your own behaviour since 2016. Remember Brexit and all your second ref bulls*** because YOU could not accept a result? And in the US all that crap about Russiagate that was meant to see Trump in prison?

I won't get drawn into another defence of why the Brexit process was flawed, but it was. That's now history and we move onto the next battle. The interference in the 2016 election by the Russians is a matter of fact. What Trump managed to do is what mob bosses often do. He avoided any direct connection to it being established. Add to that Barr's insistence that a sitting POTUS cannot be indicted. He wasn't "exonerated" at all. Be patient! When he is out of office his protection gets removed and there are many rumours that New York already has indictments ready and under seal. He may not be in prison, yet!

Edited by Matov (24 Oct 2020 1.39pm)

I think Trump sneaks it in the swing states but I really don't know Trump will get less votes in democrat cities then last time but the electoral college will save him he is polling well in the important states and thats the main thing plus bidens last few comments about oil and gas are gonna hurt him in pensylvannia ohio texts and north Carolina. To tough to call but I reckon many trump voters refuse to do Polls aswell.

Good points W12.
The postal voting system is or will be corrupt in my opinion as Biden and co will do anything in their power to oust Trump.
The media are working for Biden - most of it anyway - but I think Trump will surprise them again.
I also agree that he may well get taken out if he wins.
If Biden wins all hell will break loose and America - other than a few - will wish they had kept Trump!