5 years later in Stoke-on-Trent, after leave and Boris Johnston.

[Link]

Brexit and 'levelling-up'.

97.5% youth funding cuts due to austerity and the results are all around, the life sucked out of the place, boarded-up, people no longer go out, mental health issues, it's a dump.

The main attraction is the food bank.

To recover their communities will mean starting from the very bottom after what the tories have done.

And they voted for it in 3 elections and a big leave majority.

duplicate

I also don’t think Labour have a sniff of a chance. Not because of incompetence, we must wait to judge that, but because of the circumstances they will inherit.

No opposition will stop them governing! If that were the case they would become the government! No, with the substantial majority being forecasted they won’t be threatened. Remember that even if Reform did end up with a larger share of the popular vote than the Tories they would still have far fewer seats. This is due to the first past the post system and the expectation that Reform’s share will be even across all constituencies meaning they come second frequently.

Of course people on the right need to be represented. Just as those on the left do. Both though have a natural ceiling which is well below the level needed to achieve power in the current system. Their best hope is PR and we are many years away from that.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Not this time maybe, but you suggested endless Labour governments with the rise of Reform.

Their majority, if it happens, will be reduced or reversed next time, and that can just as easily with happen with a rising Reform as with a Tory Resurgence.

The trouble with PR is that it potentially allows a small group of extremists to hold sway over legislation and slow down the process of government. I never liked the idea, but it might be a price worth paying to break the two party system.

Needless to say, the two main parties will avoid it.

I didn’t suggest. I asked if you were predicting it!

Reform will hit their natural ceiling. The Tories will rebuild and regain their strength. What will be interesting to watch will be the behaviour of the Tory right. Will they walk into the arms of Farage, which is their natural home, or stay put knowing their own futures will be less secure there than staying Tory. We will know soon enough.

I would welcome PR but we aren’t going to get it.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

The most likely outcome is that the Tories are wiped out and that the fraction left will merge with Farage's Reform creating a far more right wing opposition.

Farage gets the Tory party infrastructure and election machine, which is obviously considerable and the Tories get to merge the right.

He would probably have a shopping list, which is to undo Cameron's influence and do that by copying Cameron's and Starmer's tactics of filling the party with loyalists. With Farage this would obviously mean throwing out the centralists and social liberals.

In my opinion the days of the uniparty in this country are numbered.

This would simply foreshadow what's happening in Europe generally.

Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Jun 2024 7.29am)

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