Yep. Problem is though that this strategy will take a while due to the fact that all countries are moving at different speeds, and we're not the only country that is creating mutations.

I think some wag estimated 7 years until 'normality' – and by that they mean the world properly engaged and in sync with an annual vaccine/booster program. Personally in my entirely unqualified opinion I think we're looking at 3-5 years. Not of continuous lockdowns, but on and off localised restrictions, mask wearing in some scenarios and gathering limits. Probably also restricted entry/travel being enforced as new mutations crop up.

As a country I think we will be more or less there by summer next year, but there will still be the threat of the odd evasive mutation arriving from another country and causing a problem until the booster jabs are updated again. Over time, though, simply due to volume, this threat will more or less disappear as most people globally will have built up resistance.

Although you're right, just like the flu, this will now be around forever – but what that doesn't mean is restrictions and lockdowns will be around forever. It will just take a little more time than most people assume to get to a saturation point where it becomes just another flu virus. That opinion is not pessimistic, it's realistic.

Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

He could help I'm sure

That's obviously true and has always been true. The problem is not if to release the brakes but when that tipping point is approaching and how fast we allow the balance to shift the other way, without it throwing us all under the bus.

Too many pseudo-experts here seem to think they know the answers to these questions better than those whose life work it is to study them.

The vaccination programme and the emerging treatments seem likely to accelerate the move to that tipping point, whilst the emergence of new variants and their unknown response to them will push back. As a result, I think the current cautiousness will remain for a good while yet. It will be a "steady as we go" approach.

I suspect we will see the schools re-opening as a first step, followed by a pause to monitor the impact, then if all is OK the re-opening of retail and as the better weather arrives more outdoor activity. Hospitality will be the last to be relaxed I think. The aim this year must be to avoid another winter lockdown like this in 9 months time.

Unrestricted foreign travel won't happen until the whole world has been vaccinated and that could be several years away. So it's likely that holidays will be at home this year and only to approved destinations after that for a while.

So those who are advocating an immediate end to the lockdown now that the most vulnerable have been vaccinated are probably going to be disappointed and will be wailing and gnashing their teeth about how useless the government are for many more months.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

The cosiest will want and welcome the cotton wool. Pathetic.

COYP

This seems to be the most important bit of data ahead of the upcoming announcement.

The number of people in hospital is still higher than the April peak. Once that falls below April levels I think we will see a phased opening of shops.

The number of daily additions is now at around 2/3's of the April peak and the number of people on mechanical ventilation is about equal to the April peak.

Doing some quick match, it seems like the average time spent in hospital is 10 days.

10% of the people in hospital are on mechanical ventilation.

2.5% of the hospital population with covid are dying every day. To put that into better context, the ratio of new daily additions to daily deaths is 1 in 4.

It seems our hospital capacity has not been breached. It noticed that capacity for testing is higher than ever, more tests are being done than ever before with a capacity for 1.4m tests and 750k tests taking place a day. Track and trace is starting to let people go as they have ample capacity.

With 12m getting vaccinated, it seems like the UK is finally on top of the virus.

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Viruses are not alive you can not kill them.

This is one of the stand out points how I spot people who claim to be something they are not when they come out with things like that it is very basic science.

This wasn't targeted at yourself

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