Finland is debating whether to join NATO, Russia has warned them off.

At the start of WW2 Russia invaded Finland who fought very bravely but eventually were overwhelmed.

One more point

The likes of Finland should be worried.
What would happen if he attacked them - would we stand by and watch that as well?

Stirling - I totally agree with you but I just cannot see how he can get out of this without either losing face or dumping a nuke somewhere just to prove that he will do it if pushed

This will likely be the eventual outcome in my view. Putin has overplayed his hand to the detriment on his neighbours, his own country and the wider world. He's an exceptionally careful and paranoid man, but even from their own state released propaganda, those around him look disturbed by his actions.

The idea of rolling over and just giving Ukraine to Putin because he fear of further consequence is weak and plays into the hands of this man. The current sanctions and beginnings of military support are essential steps to make help weaken Putins position, and also let him know that any further escalation of his intentions in other countries will result in very significant pushback. If not enough is done to support Ukraine, he will likely use the same strategy going forward. A bad idea to let a man holding the world to random with nukes get his way, as if successful it will encourage this as his stated strategy.

Edited by BlueJay (01 Mar 2022 1.53pm)

That must be the hope.

Hearing the heartbreaking pleas from Zelenskiy for the West to help fight the Russians confirms that which everyone probably presumed: Firstly, despite what seems astonishing courage on the part of their citizens, the Ukraine will certainly fall without the West joining the fight. Secondly, terribly sadly but utterly correctly in my view, unless Putin pushes on into NATO territory the West (or 'we') won't fight him. Thirdly, if Ukraine can't stop him and we won't fight him, the only hope (for a free Ukraine) is that Russia stops him.

What are the consequences in which that might happen?

Putin seems unlikely to be talked out of this invasion by anyone close to him at the top of the Russian state. He didn't give a f*** when the Russian cabinet resigned en masse in protest at his massive internal political power-grab in 2020. The Russian Orthodox Church reports to him rather than the other way around. He simply doesn't have people around him to oppose his ideas.

We can hope that forces within Russia, but external to Putin's offices, will exert pressure, but who? He kills those who nominate themselves as democratic political alternatives and those who act against him within the machinery. There have apparently been fairly well-attended protests against the invasion within Russia, but the state controls much of the media and so denies these protests the oxygen of publicity they need to build momentum. You'd have to be a pretty brave local to try and get that leaflet-drop up and running anyway.

It is perhaps not impossible that the military comes to reject Putin and attempt a coup. We are told that about 5000 Russian troops have died already and that there are those who are less than thrilled at killing Ukrainian citizens. I'm not so sure this adds up to much though. The Nazis had 'morale' issues when their soldiers had to undertake their grim orders, but this apparent show of latent humanity didn't manifest in rebellion, simply the greater mechanisation of genocide - there's always a way for a good soldier to abdicate responsibility for their actions, and apparently not having to look innocent people in the eye as you execute them works wonders. For which see; Strikes, Missile.

The Russian rich elite seems the best hope for internal Russian pressure, therefore. Putin's hideous lack of morals, the utter corruptness of the state, and the consequent hindering of the nation's economy haven't led to any successful anti-Putin moves amongst the rich before. This is probably because they become and/or remain rich at his discretion of course, but if the sanctions, which could remain all the time that Russia occupies Ukraine and regardless of any end to the conflict, remove that power from Putin then perhaps the rich will act.

The best outcome here then is that through unprecedented, thoroughly modern economic sanctions the world finds a new and effective way not only to control and deter this particular lunatic, but also all of those who would imitate him in future, and all without firing a shot.

The more likely outcome seems to be that Ukraine falls to Russia, remains under its dead hand for decades to come, that the sanctions remain in place forever to the far greater detriment of the average Russian than the likes of Putin, and that we all sadly accept this to be the least-worst outcome we could achieve.

The worst outcome, of course, doesn't bear thinking about.

The obvious question is what is in it for the Russian elite. They already have wealth and power and no one was taking that away from them.

However Putin's actions now put that at risk, I don't see any benefit for them continuing to support him as it will make their lives harder.

Hopefully enough of them will see it that way and tell Putin to back down or go.

One more point