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Magic Number for Survival - 2017 (LOCKED)

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kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 23 Apr 17 7.01pm
Originally posted by bexleydave The 'magic number' is just a theoretical total required for mathematical safety at any given point. It takes no account of form, who is playing who, or anything else, other than points available to the 18th placed side. We are clearly at an advantage, but it doesn't hurt to know the worst case scenario. Absolutely correct. It is purely mathematical and doesn't take any of the factors Bex stated. Also, the MN is now 6! Divorced...And LOVING it! VJRAM Rev. CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach Trevor Francis, International PRAT
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kenbarr

Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 23 Apr 17 7.01pm

Originally posted by bexleydave

The 'magic number' is just a theoretical total required for mathematical safety at any given point. It takes no account of form, who is playing who, or anything else, other than points available to the 18th placed side. We are clearly at an advantage, but it doesn't hurt to know the worst case scenario.

Absolutely correct. It is purely mathematical and doesn't take any of the factors Bex stated. Also, the MN is now 6!

Divorced...And LOVING it!
VJRAM Rev.
CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC
Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach
Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach
Trevor Francis, International PRAT

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highbury eagle Islington 23 Apr 17 7.12pm
A few changes to my earlier summary. To be safe they need to win two and draw two, (not impossible, really bloody difficult though) but they will also need us to lose our remaining five(which is looking pretty unlikely). For every point we can chalk up their job is a lot less possible. We are not guaranteed safety, but Swansea will need to be a very different team for their final four fixtures, as will we. Originally posted by highbury eagle Think about it this way. Swansea have games remaining against: Man Utd ( A ) Everton (H) Sunderland ( A ) West Brom (H) To be safe they need to win one and draw two, (not impossible) but they will also need us to lose our remaining six. For every point we can scrape their job is a little more difficult. We are not guaranteed safety, but Swansea will need to be a very different team for their final four fixtures. Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 1.29pm) Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 7.13pm) Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 7.13pm) Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 7.14pm) Life is the same as it always will be, Easy as picking foxes from a tree. M Bolan
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highbury eagle

Islington 23 Apr 17 7.12pm

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A few changes to my earlier summary.
To be safe they need to win two and draw two, (not impossible, really bloody difficult though) but they will also need us to lose our remaining five(which is looking pretty unlikely). For every point we can chalk up their job is a lot less possible. We are not guaranteed safety, but Swansea will need to be a very different team for their final four fixtures, as will we.

Originally posted by highbury eagle

Think about it this way. Swansea have games remaining against:

Man Utd ( A )
Everton (H)
Sunderland ( A )
West Brom (H)

To be safe they need to win one and draw two, (not impossible) but they will also need us to lose our remaining six. For every point we can scrape their job is a little more difficult. We are not guaranteed safety, but Swansea will need to be a very different team for their final four fixtures.

Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 1.29pm)

Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 7.13pm)

Edited by highbury eagle (23 Apr 2017 7.14pm)

Life is the same as it always will be,
Easy as picking foxes from a tree.
M Bolan

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Ray in Houston Houston 23 Apr 17 8.23pm
As we have now jumped to 12th, I will limit the MN update to just the bottom 4: 17 Hull 8 ------------- 18 Swansea 6 19 Middlesbrough 2 20 Sunderland 2 A single win by Palace, mathematically guarantees Sunderland and Boro finish below us. In fact, if they draw on Wednesday, this happens to both simultaneously. They would both have to be perfect and us get no more points to finish above us. Two wins confirms Swansea below us too (and complete mathematical safety). If they lose to Man Utd and we beat Burnley, it's (glad) all over. We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.
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Ray in Houston

Houston 23 Apr 17 8.23pm

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As we have now jumped to 12th, I will limit the MN update to just the bottom 4:

17 Hull 8
-------------
18 Swansea 6
19 Middlesbrough 2
20 Sunderland 2

A single win by Palace, mathematically guarantees Sunderland and Boro finish below us. In fact, if they draw on Wednesday, this happens to both simultaneously. They would both have to be perfect and us get no more points to finish above us.

Two wins confirms Swansea below us too (and complete mathematical safety). If they lose to Man Utd and we beat Burnley, it's (glad) all over.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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Lyons550 Shirley 24 Apr 17 11.35am
[updated] Attachment: Theoretical Safety.jpg (107.89Kb) The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World
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Lyons550

Shirley 24 Apr 17 11.35am

[updated]

Attachment: Theoretical Safety.jpg (107.89Kb)

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

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Ray in Houston Houston 26 Apr 17 10.00pm
Updated for the midweek results: 17 Hull 8 ------------- 18 Swansea 6 19 Middlesbrough 2 20 Sunderland ZERO Actually, Sunderland's is -1, but zero is all that matters; they can't catch us. Nothing else moves. We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.
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Ray in Houston

Houston 26 Apr 17 10.00pm

Updated for the midweek results:

17 Hull 8
-------------
18 Swansea 6
19 Middlesbrough 2
20 Sunderland ZERO

Actually, Sunderland's is -1, but zero is all that matters; they can't catch us. Nothing else moves.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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slubglurge welling 26 Apr 17 11.57pm
We can be safe this weekend. If we win and Swansea only draw then thats enough
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slubglurge

welling 26 Apr 17 11.57pm

We can be safe this weekend. If we win and Swansea only draw then thats enough

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kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 27 Apr 17 2.27am
Originally posted by Ray in Houston Updated for the midweek results: 17 Hull 8 ------------- 18 Swansea 6 19 Middlesbrough 2 20 Sunderland ZERO Actually, Sunderland's is -1, but zero is all that matters; they can't catch us. Nothing else moves. We are within mathematical safety on Saturday with a win and a Swansea loss which equals six absolute points. Remember. the MN does not like tie breakers. Time to buy the bottle of sparkling water in order to produce a celebratory belch. Edited by kenbarr (27 Apr 2017 2.28am) Divorced...And LOVING it! VJRAM Rev. CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach Trevor Francis, International PRAT
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kenbarr

Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 27 Apr 17 2.27am

Originally posted by Ray in Houston

Updated for the midweek results:

17 Hull 8
-------------
18 Swansea 6
19 Middlesbrough 2
20 Sunderland ZERO

Actually, Sunderland's is -1, but zero is all that matters; they can't catch us. Nothing else moves.

We are within mathematical safety on Saturday with a win and a Swansea loss which equals six absolute points. Remember. the MN does not like tie breakers. Time to buy the bottle of sparkling water in order to produce a celebratory belch.

Edited by kenbarr (27 Apr 2017 2.28am)

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thai-eagle chiang mai 27 Apr 17 3.31am
With 3 (of our best central defenders) out of 5, I would not take anything for granted yet. Burnley is due to an away win and we all know that Palace love to be part of a party like that. Seeing that smooch Dyche applauding of his players after securing 3 away points for the first time this season - and at the same time witness we are not out of relegation fight yet. 1 single point come Saturday will be great.....
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thai-eagle

chiang mai 27 Apr 17 3.31am

With 3 (of our best central defenders) out of 5, I would not take anything for granted yet. Burnley is due to an away win and we all know that Palace love to be part of a party like that. Seeing that smooch Dyche applauding of his players after securing 3 away points for the first time this season - and at the same time witness we are not out of relegation fight yet. 1 single point come Saturday will be great.....

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The Dolphin 27 Apr 17 6.35am
As others have said - I worry when people say "you are safe - don't worry"! We still need some points to breathe easy and even a point on Saturday would help. With Delaney and Kelly at the back we will lack the cultured pass from the back and so hoof ball might be back on the menu. That is not having a go at Delaney - I love him and he does what it says on the tin but Sakho he is not! Here's hoping other games go our way and that we can continue Burnley's misery on the road!
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The Dolphin

27 Apr 17 6.35am

As others have said - I worry when people say "you are safe - don't worry"!
We still need some points to breathe easy and even a point on Saturday would help.
With Delaney and Kelly at the back we will lack the cultured pass from the back and so hoof ball might be back on the menu.
That is not having a go at Delaney - I love him and he does what it says on the tin but Sakho he is not!
Here's hoping other games go our way and that we can continue Burnley's misery on the road!

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YT Oxford 27 Apr 17 6.39am
Originally posted by Lyons550 [updated] (Lyons-ey, I'm only whispering this so as not to tempt fate, but I think 'they' have finally learned to live with your chart.) Palace since 19 August 1972. Palace 1 (Tony Taylor) Liverpool 1 (Emlyn Hughes)
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Oxford 27 Apr 17 6.39am

Originally posted by Lyons550

[updated]

(Lyons-ey, I'm only whispering this so as not to tempt fate, but I think 'they' have finally learned to live with your chart.)

Palace since 19 August 1972. Palace 1 (Tony Taylor) Liverpool 1 (Emlyn Hughes)

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bexleydave Barnehurst 27 Apr 17 10.45am
Originally posted by kenbarr We are within mathematical safety on Saturday with a win and a Swansea loss which equals six absolute points. Remember. the MN does not like tie breakers. Time to buy the bottle of sparkling water in order to produce a celebratory belch. I really hope that we can put this to bed on Saturday as our defensive problems have made Man City and Man U even bigger asks and I don't want us to go into the Hull game needing all three points for safety. God forbid that we should go into the last game needing anything at Old Trafford. Thank goodness no one up to 9th is theoretically safe, so the odds are stacked in our favour. Bexley Dave Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ******* thing! "The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum)
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bexleydave

Barnehurst 27 Apr 17 10.45am

Originally posted by kenbarr

I really hope that we can put this to bed on Saturday as our defensive problems have made Man City and Man U even bigger asks and I don't want us to go into the Hull game needing all three points for safety. God forbid that we should go into the last game needing anything at Old Trafford. Thank goodness no one up to 9th is theoretically safe, so the odds are stacked in our favour.

Bexley Dave

Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ******* thing!

"The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum)

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Ray in Houston Houston 27 Apr 17 2.58pm
Originally posted by slubglurge We can be safe this weekend. If we win and Swansea only draw then thats enough No quite. That would mean that Swansea could still tie us on points, although we'd still be above them unless there's a 22-goal reversal in goal difference. One loss for Middlesboro (whose remaining opponents are Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool) puts us out of their reach. Two losses by Swansea does the same for them, and they play Man Utd and Everton next. We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.
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Ray in Houston

Houston 27 Apr 17 2.58pm

Originally posted by slubglurge

We can be safe this weekend. If we win and Swansea only draw then thats enough

No quite. That would mean that Swansea could still tie us on points, although we'd still be above them unless there's a 22-goal reversal in goal difference.

One loss for Middlesboro (whose remaining opponents are Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool) puts us out of their reach. Two losses by Swansea does the same for them, and they play Man Utd and Everton next.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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