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Rudi Hedman Caterham 01 Nov 20 3.55pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
Edited by BlueJay (01 Nov 2020 3.44pm) And here we again get to excess deaths being no different. But I can imagine you can create a perfectly good explanation as to why the excess deaths are the same but mainly elderly people with underlying health conditions are dying of Covid but not the other illnesses.
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Mapletree Croydon 01 Nov 20 4.19pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
And here we again get to excess deaths being no different. But I can imagine you can create a perfectly good explanation as to why the excess deaths are the same but mainly elderly people with underlying health conditions are dying of Covid but not the other illnesses. First, there are excess deaths. In Week 42, the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher). In addition, Dementia and Alzheimers have seen deaths lower than expected for 19 consecutive weeks with 139 (12%) fewer deaths than expected this week. There are also notably fewer deaths for chronic lower respiratory conditions, other respiratory conditions and acute respiratory infections. So we are seeing a reduction on illnesses due to other factors, surprise surprise when people are being really careful they don't get ill so often.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 01 Nov 20 4.51pm | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
First, there are excess deaths. In Week 42, the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher). In addition, Dementia and Alzheimers have seen deaths lower than expected for 19 consecutive weeks with 139 (12%) fewer deaths than expected this week. There are also notably fewer deaths for chronic lower respiratory conditions, other respiratory conditions and acute respiratory infections. So we are seeing a reduction on illnesses due to other factors, surprise surprise when people are being really careful they don't get ill so often. Maybe many of the weaker bodies died earlier in the year?
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Eden Eagle Kent 01 Nov 20 4.53pm | |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
You are being extremely disingenuous. And that's putting it politely! I am not the least bit "tangled up"! My position is very, very clear and totally consistent. As a country we have to make choices between alternative strategies, all of which are bad. Choosing one doesn't mean any lack of empathy for those affected by it. Quite the contrary in fact. Support has to be given to those who are impacted and that has been my position throughout. You cannot though manage this crisis without it impacting people and my view, and it seems of many others, including those actually taking the decisions, is that the impact of financial stress for some is nothing like as important as the loss of their lives for others. So long as we ensure that those affected are kept safe and well, housed, fed and clothed they will survive and can then use their skills and energy to rebuild their own lives and our economy. Accusing me of a lack of empathy is really ironic at best, and disgusting at worst, considering your own total lack of empathy for those who would lose their lives if the course of action you prefer was followed. My guess is you have never managed more than to get out of bed in the morning, and I think we can count ourselves lucky for that. Oh dear... I have not suggested any course of action (though I do believe that the economic damage should be taken into account) and we are in agreement that there are no good choices. If you get 5 minutes to reflect - please review your previous comments and you will see that they did not display any empathy towards the loss of jobs/livelihoods/ homes etc it was just “economies recover dead people don’t “. But you have now clarified your position on this point - so thank you for that. There really is nothing to be gained through further comment (from either of us) on this point as we are now in agreement, so best wishes to you.
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BlueJay UK 01 Nov 20 4.58pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
And here we again get to excess deaths being no different. But I can imagine you can create a perfectly good explanation as to why the excess deaths are the same but mainly elderly people with underlying health conditions are dying of Covid but not the other illnesses.
- The propoganda image and data excludes certain lower number years There is no quality control, because you patently don't care if what you say is true, as absolutely anything that fits your idea that you're being misled by the government ticks the only box that matters for you. Ironically in adopting such a fervent and blinkered approach you are both the person who is misleading, and the person being misled.
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Spiderman Horsham 01 Nov 20 4.58pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
I agree. I was joking. I realised that but some on here need it to be stressed more imo. Wonder how many truthfully wanted a total ban on air travel? And I don’t mean just between Gatwick and Newquay Edited by Spiderman (01 Nov 2020 5.01pm)
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BlueJay UK 01 Nov 20 5.00pm | |
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Originally posted by Spiderman
We should have had a total lockdown in March, ie all airports shut except for repatriation, to be receiving flights from China whilst we couldn’t visit family was totally unacceptable. Even now we are allowing foreign travellers in with absolutely no way of checking they are self- isolating. Please don’t say we have that ability because we don’t, no way of checking addresses before they leave the airport. Brits refusing to give details and EU nationals coming to stay in caravans are a daily occurrence I must admit it did seem rather mad at the time that we were playing covid whack-a-mole when people were breezing in from Italy with the virus in their droves. Countries like New Zealand clearly made the right call at least in terms of local lives and business functioning as normal. Even Australia and their tough measures really appear to have made a serious dent in the progress of the virus (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54768038 ), which can make all the difference when better treatments and vaccines may be on the horizon. Better to have bought time with travel restrictions and localised apoproaches rather than endless late in the day nationwide lockdowns. Edited by BlueJay (01 Nov 2020 5.00pm)
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Spiderman Horsham 01 Nov 20 5.02pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
I must admit it did seem rather mad at the time that we were playing covid whack-a-mole when people were breezing in from Italy with the virus in their droves. Countries like New Zealand clearly made the right call at least in terms of local lives and business functioning as normal. Even Australia and their tough measures really appear to have made a serious dent in the progress of the virus (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54768038 ), which can make all the difference when better treatments and vaccines may be on the horizon. Better to have bought time with travel restrictions and localised apoproaches rather than endless late in the day nationwide lockdowns. Edited by BlueJay (01 Nov 2020 5.00pm) At least a month into lockdown we were still having inbound flights from mainland China ffs! No excuses for that
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BlueJay UK 01 Nov 20 5.06pm | |
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Originally posted by Spiderman
At least a month into lockdown we were still having inbound flights from mainland China ffs! No excuses for that Yes, it was ridiculous. Logically that decision alone have us no way out.
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BlueJay UK 01 Nov 20 5.09pm | |
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Antibodies produced by COVID-19 patients to fight disease have more staying power than once thought - [Link] Quote A new study of 30,000 COVID-19 patients suggests that the antibodies people produce to fight off the virus last longer than previously believed.
The finding should help vaccine makers as well as researchers who have been trying to determine whether COVID-19 survivors can become reinfected. "Some (studies) reported declines in antibodies the first few weeks and first months and that isn't what we have seen," said Ania Wajnberg, lead author of the new study and medical director of Mount Sinai's clinical antibody testing program. "We see a slight decline, but overall a stable level." The paper, published this week in the journal Science, reported that most people with mild to moderate COVID-19 produce antibodies that are still effective five months after the onset of symptoms. Roughly 92% of the patients produce sufficient antibody levels to continue fighting the new coronavirus. Past studies found that antibody levels seemed to drop off faster. The other studies focused on antibodies produced in response to a viral protein known as NP. But it turns out NP may not be a good measure because it has membranes that shield it from the antibodies created by our immune system. The team at Mount Sinai in New York focused instead on the infamous Spike protein, which allows viral cells to attach themselves to human cells. After measuring antibody response in the entire group of 30,000 COVID-19 patients, scientists then followed a smaller subset. This second group consisted of 121 patients, who went on to donate plasma to help others fight COVID-19. When researchers measured antibody levels in the group of 121 they found only a slight drop between three months and five months after symptoms. There was a larger decline at about 148 days, but the antibody levels were still high enough to neutralize the virus. Wajnberg said the Mount Sinai team plans to follow the 121 plasma donors for at least a full year. The study suggests that vaccine makers should target the Spike protein because it spurs a much stronger immune response than the NP protein. A new study in contrast (using a different measure) to the other antibody related study which suggested short term immunity. Here "Roughly 92% of the patients produce sufficient antibody levels to continue fighting the new coronavirus" after 5 months. And that of course is before we get to T Cell immune response. If it turns out that immunity is commonly a year + or more that bodes well for our natural response and possibly the prospects and design of vaccines.
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Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Stoke sub normal 01 Nov 20 5.44pm | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
First, there are excess deaths. In Week 42, the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher). In addition, Dementia and Alzheimers have seen deaths lower than expected for 19 consecutive weeks with 139 (12%) fewer deaths than expected this week. There are also notably fewer deaths for chronic lower respiratory conditions, other respiratory conditions and acute respiratory infections. So we are seeing a reduction on illnesses due to other factors, surprise surprise when people are being really careful they don't get ill so often. How can this make sense? You state that excess deaths are high according to the average. And other deaths from illnesses are lower because people are being really careful. So, if people are being really careful and not getting ill, how come C-19 is supposedly increasing. You can't have it both ways. Also quoting average excess deaths is pointless as it is measured over 5 years for a reason, specifically the high one year, low the next phenomenon which is largely unbroken year on year. So 6.8% is meaningless anyway.
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Painter Croydon 01 Nov 20 6.08pm | |
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Originally posted by Spiderman
We should have had a total lockdown in March, ie all airports shut except for repatriation, to be receiving flights from China whilst we couldn’t visit family was totally unacceptable. Even now we are allowing foreign travellers in with absolutely no way of checking they are self- isolating. Please don’t say we have that ability because we don’t, no way of checking addresses before they leave the airport. Brits refusing to give details and EU nationals coming to stay in caravans are a daily occurrence I agree, the freedom of movement at airports, whilst everyone else was in lockdown is bizarre, as many government policies have been.
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