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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.31am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

November is going to be mental for all kinds of reasons. Going to make a serious effort to bascially cut off almost all social media until the lock down is over. Into survival mode me thinks.

Woke up to the BBC trying to convince me that there could be be or will be 4,000 dwarfs a day. I wasn’t sure which I heard. I almost laughed. They don’t realise how many more than last time and how much higher than Neil Ferguson’s junk science that is. But then I posted how wildly different the universities etc are predicting.

Not only that but this week SAGE came out with the death line will be lower horizontal line that goes on for longer. More reason for people to ignore them if they just change the predictions and put out the worst possible figures they can invent from the flick of a key on a spreadsheet.

Coronavirus: PM considering England lockdown next week [Link]

The prime minister is considering a month-long lockdown across England in the hope that measures could be eased before Christmas.

A new "stay at home" order could be announced on Monday, with schools, colleges and universities exempt.

Documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.

Deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day, one of the models suggests.

This figure is based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the disease.

At the height of the pandemic during the spring, deaths in the UK reached more than 1,000 a day.


 


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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.44am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by The Dolphin

A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion.
Deaths are slowly falling.
The new tier arrangements haven't been proved to work or not yet.
Too much scaremonger modelling by self interested Scientists.
Much as I love Boris even I now think that if he does this he is pandering not governing.
He has to hold fast but this "rumour" is obviously fact and now supermarkets will run out of essentials and here we go again.
Madness.

I couldn’t agree more. Country being run by junk science modellers who can’t stop meddling. They’ll do this and I guarantee do nothing to make it a smooth move. I’ve seen queuing outside supermarkets go as soon as masks became mandatory and at the start of the first wave there was no queuing or product limits. They won’t work with or advise on a local level regarding supplying people in need, unless they feel because they’re allowed out now there’s no point. But if they believe this 4,000 number and bodies are going to be stacking up in hospital car parks, then surely they’ll address it.

I wait to see what they do that is a substantial government Covid policy improvement during this lockdown, because it’s no doubt been decided for Boris that there will be one. May as well have Max Headroom as PM or go for the biggest clamour stirred up by whichever group gathers the most attention at the time.

 


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cryrst Flag The garden of England 31 Oct 20 9.53am Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by The Dolphin

A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion.
Deaths are slowly falling.
The new tier arrangements haven't been proved to work or not yet.
Too much scaremonger modelling by self interested Scientists.
Much as I love Boris even I now think that if he does this he is pandering not governing.
He has to hold fast but this "rumour" is obviously fact and now supermarkets will run out of essentials and here we go again.
Madness.

The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential.
This model may well be correct because of that.
Also if we stay as we are with tiers and it does get as bad as they say then sickness from work alongside deaths could also get as bad for the economy. Hospital deaths are falling due to treatment but admissions are going up.

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.59am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential.
This model may well be correct because of that.
Also if we stay as we are with tiers and it does get as bad as they say then sickness from work alongside deaths could also get as bad for the economy. Hospital deaths are falling due to treatment but admissions are going up.

I’ve already posted half a dozen bodies with completely different opinions. Are you saying you believe the 4,000 number after this week SAGE had the daily fear bulletin with them saying the curve will be a flat horizontal line with much lower death numbers but the line goes on for longer.’

Did you believe that as well? You can’t believe both. Well you can, but people will put people straight who believe all of this guff every day.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.07am)

 


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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 10.28am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Still believe?

D59B58D7-F9F7-49AF-8B42-0730C08878C8.jpeg Attachment: D59B58D7-F9F7-49AF-8B42-0730C08878C8.jpeg (519.90Kb)

 


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Phil’s Barber Flag Crowborough 31 Oct 20 10.30am Send a Private Message to Phil’s Barber Add Phil’s Barber as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential.
This model may well be correct because of that.
Also if we stay as we are with tiers and it does get as bad as they say then sickness from work alongside deaths could also get as bad for the economy. Hospital deaths are falling due to treatment but admissions are going up.


The figures and trends are a huge concern and I imagine data Coming in but not yet released is what has alarmed the Government into this urgent action. Not acting will be far more of a disgrace than sitting on their hands, seeing if things improve and then getting absolutely slaughtered by everyone with wonderful hindsight for not doing more sooner!

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 10.50am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Phil’s Barber


The figures and trends are a huge concern and I imagine data Coming in but not yet released is what has alarmed the Government into this urgent action. Not acting will be far more of a disgrace than sitting on their hands, seeing if things improve and then getting absolutely slaughtered by everyone with wonderful hindsight for not doing more sooner!

Will we get to see the theory behind this and/or the 4,000? I expect not. Being treated like idiots. The trends are not steep so I don’t see the same huge concern.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.50am)

 


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Phil’s Barber Flag Crowborough 31 Oct 20 10.59am Send a Private Message to Phil’s Barber Add Phil’s Barber as a friend

Originally posted by The Dolphin

A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion.
Deaths are slowly falling.
The new tier arrangements haven't been proved to work or not yet.
Too much scaremonger modelling by self interested Scientists.
Much as I love Boris even I now think that if he does this he is pandering not governing.
He has to hold fast but this "rumour" is obviously fact and now supermarkets will run out of essentials and here we go again.
Madness.


I think a lot of people feel the complete opposite.
The rolling seven day average clearly shows that hospital admissions and deaths as a result of Covid-19 are on a steep increase.
The new tier arrangements are not having the desired affect, that is obvious and to think otherwise is wrong and naive. Any delay in taking further action will have very serious consequences. I personally think a much, much stricter following and enforcement of the restrictions would have negated the need for a second National Lockdown but unfortunately I think it is too late to try that tack at the present time.

This national lockdown will be be brought in to try and stem the surge again, (like the previous one did) it is not about ending the crisis, we are a long way off from that. The fear is that this surge in cases will result in an exponential rise in cases/hospitalisation, which the NHS will not be able to cope with, resulting in a much more serious breakdown of wider medical care.

We are much more informed and certainly more experienced to deal with treatment and hospital care but I fear we are not going to be as resilient a second time round. Our fantastic health professionals have not recovered from the fist peak in cases and I don’t think there is the capacity or ability both physically and mentally to deal with a second peak (over the winter months) as well as they did the first. They know what it is like and what is potentially coming and I think we would struggle massively with a second peak in terms of their well being, resilience and ability to go the extra mile that quite clearly kept us afloat the first time round.


Edited by Phil’s Barber (31 Oct 2020 11.00am)

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 11.05am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

It looks as though they’re using imperial again. Imperial College London. So would they be using Professor Neil Ferguson again?

It looks like 4,000 deaths a day doing nothing and 2,500 with whatever measures. I call bullsh1t.

 


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cryrst Flag The garden of England 31 Oct 20 11.52am Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

I’ve already posted half a dozen bodies with completely different opinions. Are you saying you believe the 4,000 number after this week SAGE had the daily fear bulletin with them saying the curve will be a flat horizontal line with much lower death numbers but the line goes on for longer.’

Did you believe that as well? You can’t believe both. Well you can, but people will put people straight who believe all of this guff every day.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.07am)

You are believing charts,info and professionals like me I guess. Because I believe different ones doesnt make me wrong. It could be that your are wrong and I'm sure leaving it as it is would suit you just fine. Sadly though you cannot turn the clock back on death but you can rebuild business and your mental wellbeing if your not dead.

 

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Phil’s Barber Flag Crowborough 31 Oct 20 11.53am Send a Private Message to Phil’s Barber Add Phil’s Barber as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Will we get to see the theory behind this and/or the 4,000? I expect not. Being treated like idiots. The trends are not steep so I don’t see the same huge concern.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.50am)

I will leave the comment on anything theoretical to experts and those qualified to make it but I do find the Official figures from the most recent ONS release to be of huge concern.

The latest release from the Office of National Statistics (on 27th October) provided the latest Official figures for Covid related deaths for week 42. The excerpt is as follows.

‘The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased by 232 deaths, from 438 in Week 41 to 670 in Week 42 (a 53.0% increase).’

Without knowing your definition of ‘steep’ I would say a 53% increase in deaths week on week is huge and is cause for real concern.

The next release from the ONS is due on November 3rd and I suspect the figures for more recent weeks (as yet not officially released) will be extremely serious, which is why the Government are taking further action.

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 31 Oct 20 11.55am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by cryrst

You are believing charts,info and professionals like me I guess. Because I believe different ones doesnt make me wrong. It could be that your are wrong and I'm sure leaving it as it is would suit you just fine. Sadly though you cannot turn the clock back on death but you can rebuild business and your mental wellbeing if your not dead.

I can see you’ll go for the worst case the government and media tell you. What when it’s proven to be bullsh1t? Remember this prediction, I mean ‘scenario’?.....

1951F8DB-495D-402E-933D-CAB7D6EC3B06.jpeg Attachment: 1951F8DB-495D-402E-933D-CAB7D6EC3B06.jpeg (519.90Kb)

 


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