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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.31am | |
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Originally posted by Matov
November is going to be mental for all kinds of reasons. Going to make a serious effort to bascially cut off almost all social media until the lock down is over. Into survival mode me thinks. Woke up to the BBC trying to convince me that there could be be or will be 4,000 dwarfs a day. I wasn’t sure which I heard. I almost laughed. They don’t realise how many more than last time and how much higher than Neil Ferguson’s junk science that is. But then I posted how wildly different the universities etc are predicting. Not only that but this week SAGE came out with the death line will be lower horizontal line that goes on for longer. More reason for people to ignore them if they just change the predictions and put out the worst possible figures they can invent from the flick of a key on a spreadsheet. Coronavirus: PM considering England lockdown next week [Link] The prime minister is considering a month-long lockdown across England in the hope that measures could be eased before Christmas. A new "stay at home" order could be announced on Monday, with schools, colleges and universities exempt. Documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced. Deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day, one of the models suggests. This figure is based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the disease. At the height of the pandemic during the spring, deaths in the UK reached more than 1,000 a day.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.44am | |
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Originally posted by The Dolphin
A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion. I couldn’t agree more. Country being run by junk science modellers who can’t stop meddling. They’ll do this and I guarantee do nothing to make it a smooth move. I’ve seen queuing outside supermarkets go as soon as masks became mandatory and at the start of the first wave there was no queuing or product limits. They won’t work with or advise on a local level regarding supplying people in need, unless they feel because they’re allowed out now there’s no point. But if they believe this 4,000 number and bodies are going to be stacking up in hospital car parks, then surely they’ll address it. I wait to see what they do that is a substantial government Covid policy improvement during this lockdown, because it’s no doubt been decided for Boris that there will be one. May as well have Max Headroom as PM or go for the biggest clamour stirred up by whichever group gathers the most attention at the time.
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cryrst The garden of England 31 Oct 20 9.53am | |
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Originally posted by The Dolphin
A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion. The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 9.59am | |
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Originally posted by cryrst
The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential. I’ve already posted half a dozen bodies with completely different opinions. Are you saying you believe the 4,000 number after this week SAGE had the daily fear bulletin with them saying the curve will be a flat horizontal line with much lower death numbers but the line goes on for longer.’ Did you believe that as well? You can’t believe both. Well you can, but people will put people straight who believe all of this guff every day. Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.07am)
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 10.28am | |
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Still believe? Attachment: D59B58D7-F9F7-49AF-8B42-0730C08878C8.jpeg (519.90Kb)
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Phil’s Barber Crowborough 31 Oct 20 10.30am | |
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Originally posted by cryrst
The modelling is taken from facts this time around. Actual real figures not potential.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 10.50am | |
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Originally posted by Phil’s Barber
Will we get to see the theory behind this and/or the 4,000? I expect not. Being treated like idiots. The trends are not steep so I don’t see the same huge concern. Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.50am)
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Phil’s Barber Crowborough 31 Oct 20 10.59am | |
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Originally posted by The Dolphin
A national lockdown will be a disgrace in my opinion.
This national lockdown will be be brought in to try and stem the surge again, (like the previous one did) it is not about ending the crisis, we are a long way off from that. The fear is that this surge in cases will result in an exponential rise in cases/hospitalisation, which the NHS will not be able to cope with, resulting in a much more serious breakdown of wider medical care. We are much more informed and certainly more experienced to deal with treatment and hospital care but I fear we are not going to be as resilient a second time round. Our fantastic health professionals have not recovered from the fist peak in cases and I don’t think there is the capacity or ability both physically and mentally to deal with a second peak (over the winter months) as well as they did the first. They know what it is like and what is potentially coming and I think we would struggle massively with a second peak in terms of their well being, resilience and ability to go the extra mile that quite clearly kept us afloat the first time round.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 11.05am | |
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It looks as though they’re using imperial again. Imperial College London. So would they be using Professor Neil Ferguson again? It looks like 4,000 deaths a day doing nothing and 2,500 with whatever measures. I call bullsh1t. [Tweet Link]
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cryrst The garden of England 31 Oct 20 11.52am | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
I’ve already posted half a dozen bodies with completely different opinions. Are you saying you believe the 4,000 number after this week SAGE had the daily fear bulletin with them saying the curve will be a flat horizontal line with much lower death numbers but the line goes on for longer.’ Did you believe that as well? You can’t believe both. Well you can, but people will put people straight who believe all of this guff every day. Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.07am) You are believing charts,info and professionals like me I guess. Because I believe different ones doesnt make me wrong. It could be that your are wrong and I'm sure leaving it as it is would suit you just fine. Sadly though you cannot turn the clock back on death but you can rebuild business and your mental wellbeing if your not dead.
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Phil’s Barber Crowborough 31 Oct 20 11.53am | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Will we get to see the theory behind this and/or the 4,000? I expect not. Being treated like idiots. The trends are not steep so I don’t see the same huge concern. Edited by Rudi Hedman (31 Oct 2020 10.50am) I will leave the comment on anything theoretical to experts and those qualified to make it but I do find the Official figures from the most recent ONS release to be of huge concern. The latest release from the Office of National Statistics (on 27th October) provided the latest Official figures for Covid related deaths for week 42. The excerpt is as follows. ‘The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased by 232 deaths, from 438 in Week 41 to 670 in Week 42 (a 53.0% increase).’ Without knowing your definition of ‘steep’ I would say a 53% increase in deaths week on week is huge and is cause for real concern. The next release from the ONS is due on November 3rd and I suspect the figures for more recent weeks (as yet not officially released) will be extremely serious, which is why the Government are taking further action.
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Oct 20 11.55am | |
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Originally posted by cryrst
You are believing charts,info and professionals like me I guess. Because I believe different ones doesnt make me wrong. It could be that your are wrong and I'm sure leaving it as it is would suit you just fine. Sadly though you cannot turn the clock back on death but you can rebuild business and your mental wellbeing if your not dead. I can see you’ll go for the worst case the government and media tell you. What when it’s proven to be bullsh1t? Remember this prediction, I mean ‘scenario’?..... Attachment: 1951F8DB-495D-402E-933D-CAB7D6EC3B06.jpeg (519.90Kb)
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