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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 6.06pm | |
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Originally posted by W12
"Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available, assays designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA" [page 39] Edited by W12 (13 Oct 2020 4.13pm) They used genome information rather than live virus. You implied that the PCR test cannot differentiate between covid, measles, ebola or the common cold. Via sequencing it can. Nobody is saying that there can't be false positives (and indeed false negatives) but the idea that the test cannot in any way differentiate between covid-19 and a whole host of other illnesses doesn't align well with reality. "The workflow reliably detects 2019-nCoV, and further discriminates 2019-nCoV from SARS-CoV. Through coordination between academic and public laboratories, we confirmed assay exclusivity based on 297 original clinical specimens containing a full spectrum of human respiratory viruses. Control material is made available through European Virus Archive – Global (EVAg), a European Union infrastructure project." [Link]
Edited by BlueJay (13 Oct 2020 6.14pm)
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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 6.12pm | |
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Originally posted by Eaglecoops
They don’t have to sort the fallout from such a knee jerk decision. I’ve had enough of politicians of all colours, they haven’t got a clue. I’m getting out this country for 4 months in November. If they close down the airports, to say I’ll be pi55ed off will be the understatement of the year. Haven't we all! I can't say I blame you for getting out and wanting a taste of normality. There are plenty of places that aren't hit all that badly and where restrictions are well aligned with that fact. If it wasn't for work and family commitments I'd consider getting out for a bit as it is a depressing time, and in numerous ways and for various reasons people and businesses are coming apart at the seams. I envy those able to up sticks and find somewhere they're able to unwidn and relax for a period of time. Good luck to you!
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Eaglecoops CR3 13 Oct 20 6.14pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
Haven't we all! I can't say I blame you for getting out and wanting a taste of normality. There are plenty of places that aren't hit all that badly and where restrictions are well aligned with that fact. If it wasn't for work and family commitments I'd consider getting out for a bit as it is a depressing time, and in numerous ways and for various reasons people and businesses are coming apart at the seams. I envy those able to up sticks and find somewhere they're able to unwidn and relax for a period of time. Good luck to you! Edited by Eaglecoops (13 Oct 2020 6.15pm)
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W12 13 Oct 20 6.23pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
They used genome information rather than live virus. You implied that the PCR test cannot differentiate between covid, measles, ebola or the common cold. Via sequencing it can. Nobody is saying that there can't be false positives (and indeed false negatives) but this idea that the test cannot in any way differentiate between covid-19 and a whole host of other illnesses is clearly detached from reality. "The workflow reliably detects 2019-nCoV, and further discriminates 2019-nCoV from SARS-CoV. Through coordination between academic and public laboratories, we confirmed assay exclusivity based on 297 original clinical specimens containing a full spectrum of human respiratory viruses. Control material is made available through European Virus Archive – Global (EVAg), a European Union infrastructure project." [Link]
You cannot test accurately for a virus that has not been isolated and purified. Even if you assumed this was the case you would also be testing for people that have already recovered weeks/months before, then there is the issue of the large numbers of false positives (the smallest estimate I've seen I think is 1.4% which is a *lot* when you are testing hundreds of thousands/millions of people and would probably account for most "cases" ) and then there is the problem of inconsistency in amplification which basically means you can manipulate the results should you wish. Then there is the problem that the person who invented the test said it should not be used as a diagnostic test. The PCR testing is inherently flawed. Edited by W12 (13 Oct 2020 6.23pm)
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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 6.36pm | |
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Originally posted by W12
You cannot test accurately for a virus that has not been isolated and purified. Even if you assumed this was the case you would also be testing for people that have already recovered weeks/months before, then there is the issue of the large numbers of false positives (the smallest estimate I've seen I think is 1.4% which is a *lot* when you are testing hundreds of thousands/millions of people and would probably account for most "cases" ) and then there is the problem of inconsistency in amplification which basically means you can manipulate the results should you wish. Then there is the problem that the person who invented the test said it should not be used as a diagnostic test. The PCR testing is inherently flawed. Edited by W12 (13 Oct 2020 6.23pm) As I said, it is certainly able to distinguish between covid-19 and hundreds of other viruses. That's a statement of fact. Yes there can be some false positives and negatives, as nothing is perfect and I agree that on a large scale that can be an issue, but at the same time don't really believe there's an intentional push to wildly elevate the number of positives and so on. It's perfectly possible to accept that covid-19 is a very nasty virus to vulnerable and elderly groups but still find a way to let that impact everyday life as little as possible, as they've done in many Asian countries, and Sweden and so on. I'd prefer efforts to go into a push for smarter approaches rather than varying degrees of denial about what's going on.
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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 6.40pm | |
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Originally posted by Eaglecoops
Thank you mate, no kids equals freedom of movement for us. I know Sterling doesn’t rate it but it works for both of us. Edited by Eaglecoops (13 Oct 2020 6.15pm) You're lucky and should make the most of that position. You only live once and I can't say I've ever regretted travelling and the memories, moments and changes in perspective that come along with it. Especially at a time like this, I can't think of a better plan! Do check in with us from time to time as we're unlikely to be out .
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Eaglecoops CR3 13 Oct 20 6.59pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
You're lucky and should make the most of that position. You only live once and I can't say I've ever regretted travelling and the memories, moments and changes in perspective that come along with it. Especially at a time like this, I can't think of a better plan! Do check in with us from time to time as we're unlikely to be out . Modern technology, it’s like home from home. Just a bit warmer
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 13 Oct 20 7.45pm | |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
As I said, it is certainly able to distinguish between covid-19 and hundreds of other viruses. That's a statement of fact. Yes there can be some false positives and negatives, as nothing is perfect and I agree that on a large scale that can be an issue, but at the same time don't really believe there's an intentional push to wildly elevate the number of positives and so on. It's perfectly possible to accept that covid-19 is a very nasty virus to vulnerable and elderly groups but still find a way to let that impact everyday life as little as possible, as they've done in many Asian countries, and Sweden and so on. I'd prefer efforts to go into a push for smarter approaches rather than varying degrees of denial about what's going on. Where do you get this from? The PCR test in Britain isn’t fit for purpose. There’s even been pro govt people to the point they could be govt stooges who’ve said there’s false positives. The Australian text is meant to be excellent. But if it isn’t intentional it’s ok and we plod on with it. Oh well. Nothing in 2020 on the other side of this fence surprises me. Edited by Rudi Hedman (13 Oct 2020 7.54pm)
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 13 Oct 20 7.52pm | |
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Originally posted by W12
You cannot test accurately for a virus that has not been isolated and purified. Even if you assumed this was the case you would also be testing for people that have already recovered weeks/months before, then there is the issue of the large numbers of false positives (the smallest estimate I've seen I think is 1.4% which is a *lot* when you are testing hundreds of thousands/millions of people and would probably account for most "cases" ) and then there is the problem of inconsistency in amplification which basically means you can manipulate the results should you wish. Then there is the problem that the person who invented the test said it should not be used as a diagnostic test. The PCR testing is inherently flawed. Edited by W12 (13 Oct 2020 6.23pm) This explains why a test and trace system now is futile. If we had the tests and industry to produce them like Germany in March then we’d be better off, but we didn’t, and unfortunately we have a bad government and just as bad opposition and shadow cabinet. The natural conclusion will end up being the only possible one unless a vaccine miraculously happens that people are willing to take because it’s SAFE, but unfortunately it’s only safe after years of test and see what happens. Maybe they’ll only make certain freedoms or even essentials optional if you have a vaccine certificate/passport. I still agree with Stirlingsays that this is the biggest overreaction in history and I don’t see anything around that’s going to change my mind.
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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 9.27pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Where do you get this from? The PCR test in Britain isn’t fit for purpose. There’s even been pro govt people to the point they could be govt stooges who’ve said there’s false positives. The Australian text is meant to be excellent. But if it isn’t intentional it’s ok and we plod on with it. Oh well. Nothing in 2020 on the other side of this fence surprises me. Edited by Rudi Hedman (13 Oct 2020 7.54pm) It would be nice if the conspiracy stuff, social media echo chamber gifs, and Qanon comments came in for 1% as much criticism as mundane views but that's the level we're at now it seems. Literally hours ago the argument was being made that vastly more people have likely had covid-19 than we know of (hence the number of deaths would be less worrisome really), but repeatedly it's also been said on here that the gov is intentionally trying to boost the numbers. Realistically, I'd say I agree that it's likely that the numbers are higher than official positive tests. Covid-19 spreads easily, is a pandemic and a significant percentage of the population will likely end up getting it. Significant numbers of people with it likely don't even bother with a test, so for every argument for over counting, there are obviously plenty for under, which of course never get raised around here. It may well be the case that the Australian test is much better, I agree. I acknowledged flaws. The tests are useful at least in so much that as the percentage of positive tests are increasing dramatically of late we can safely say that the situation is getting worse and pinpoint that some areas need more focus than others (which would appear to be a good thing to avoid a nationwide lockdown). Plus often people getting tests are self selecting (have symptoms) and so who exactly could blame them for wanting what is a 'very good idea' of knowing whether they have covid-19 or not and isolating accordingly if they do? So yes, as flawed and whack-a-mole as testing may be, it certainly makes more sense than not bothering with it. Edited by BlueJay (14 Oct 2020 2.26am)
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 13 Oct 20 9.59pm | |
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God you’ve conveniently missed off the forced ‘oh go on then’ doorstep testing going on and loads of asymptomatic people getting tested for various reasons. I could just get you talking with Michael Yeadon and he’d pull that post to shreds, not because he wants to, and he’d say so, but because he knows this inside out, has sifted through every document & figure in data there is. He worked with Vallance before and was head of respiratory research at Pfizer for years. He isn’t the only one either. The fact we have people believing this government or the tv news confirms to me we’re in trouble. The spin of data is unreal - leaving out other key bits or quoting longer periods so they sound more alarming, and of course their 50,000 ‘cases’ per day ‘scenario’ instead of a projection. You didn’t need to draw a line from the last day’s rises to see it was complete bullsh1t to reach maximum scare levels but when you did it was even more unbelievable. It won’t get anywhere near 50,000 and the new ‘restrictions’ which have been largely ignored aren’t why. In fact the 10pm curfew has probably caused more transmission. They really do think we’re all stupid and unfortunately many are.
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BlueJay UK 13 Oct 20 10.15pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
God you’ve conveniently missed off the forced ‘oh go on then’ doorstep testing going on and loads of asymptomatic people getting tested for various reasons. I could just get you talking with Michael Yeadon and he’d pull that post to shreds, not because he wants to, and he’d say so, but because he knows this inside out, has sifted through every document & figure in data there is. He worked with Vallance before and was head of respiratory research at Pfizer for years. He isn’t the only one either. The fact we have people believing this government or the tv news confirms to me we’re in trouble. The spin of data is unreal - leaving out other key bits or quoting longer periods so they sound more alarming, and of course their 50,000 ‘cases’ per day ‘scenario’ instead of a projection. You didn’t need to draw a line from the last day’s rises to see it was complete bullsh1t to reach maximum scare levels but when you did it was even more unbelievable. It won’t get anywhere near 50,000 and the new ‘restrictions’ which have been largely ignored aren’t why. In fact the 10pm curfew has probably caused more transmission. They really do think we’re all stupid and unfortunately many are. I don't mindlessly believe tv news or politicians. I make sensible and balanced contributions which of course puts me at odds with some of the one dimensional guff in this thread. Maybe I should slip a bit of QANON in there to avoid criticism. I'm not sure what you imagine you've read, as the point of what I've said, which by the way aligns with several people here I don't even agree with generally, is that the overall number of positives however imperfect is for various reasons unlikely to capture the actual number of people that have had covid-19. As I said it is imperfect but has its uses, rather than your 'why bother' outlook. "The tests are useful at least in so much that as the percentage of positive tests are increasing dramatically of late we can safely say that the situation is getting worse and pinpoint that some areas need more focus than others (which would appear to be a good thing to avoid a nationwide lockdown). Plus often people getting tests are self selecting (have symptoms) and so who exactly could blame them for wanting what is a 'very good idea' of knowing whether they have covid-19 or not and isolating accordingly if they do? So yes, as flawed and whack-a-mole as testing may be, it certainly makes more sense than not bothering with it." Logically a significant amount of the population will get this. The idea that there hasn't been days where tens of thousands of people have contracted covid-19 is of course laughable. It's a pandemic, so hardly a turn up for the books'. Some on here struggle with nuanced perspective, it's either this or that. Yes there are some false positives, yes there are of course plenty of people who don't bother to get tested or even know they have it. It's not all tick box A or B. I don't even disagree with your overreaching idea of how to approach this going forward, so you ought to get out of the habit of latching onto one or two lines to set yourself off and ignoring everything else. Edited by BlueJay (14 Oct 2020 2.29am)
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