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steeleye20 Croydon 11 Apr 22 5.38pm | |
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I notice that Le Pen herself was nearly beaten by the left wing candidate Melenchon, with nearly 22% of the vote including taking Paris. He naturally is advising 'not one vote' for Le Pen. So Macron is in the box seat here imo, if it gets really tight he may even cut a deal with the left.
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nead1 11 Apr 22 6.20pm | |
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I agree with your analysis; that said, there is a risk that a lot of people who backed Melenchon won't vote. What also seems certain is that the c8% who backed Zemmour will transfer to Le Pen - hence, its easy to see where the predictions of a tight race come from.
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Matov 11 Apr 22 6.21pm | |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
I notice that Le Pen herself was nearly beaten by the left wing candidate Melenchon, with nearly 22% of the vote including taking Paris. He naturally is advising 'not one vote' for Le Pen. So Macron is in the box seat here imo, if it gets really tight he may even cut a deal with the left.
There is a current story in France about a farmer who, when alone with his 3 year old daughter in their rural farmhouse, had a run in with a group of burglars. During this, the farmer shot one of them with a legally owned rifle who subsequently died. The farmer has been charged with murder. When asked about this, Macron said that he does not believe in the right of self-defence. Which has caused uproar in France. Interestingly, almost zero coverage of the story in the British media but it is having an impact in France. Is Le Pen going to win? Then probably not. But this idea that all of the 'left' wing vote will swing behind Macron is not as certain as you might think. For example, one of the things Macron wants to do is raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. Le Pen opposes this. Stuff like this matters. The vote could be close. I cannot see, as much as I want it to happen, Le Pen winning but a couple of polls have it in margin of error territory. Lets see.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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Stirlingsays 11 Apr 22 7.13pm | |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
I notice that Le Pen herself was nearly beaten by the left wing candidate Melenchon, with nearly 22% of the vote including taking Paris. He naturally is advising 'not one vote' for Le Pen. So Macron is in the box seat here imo, if it gets really tight he may even cut a deal with the left. Globalistic cuckoldry.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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Nicholas91 The Democratic Republic of Kent 11 Apr 22 7.18pm | |
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Originally posted by Matov
There is a current story in France about a farmer who, when alone with his 3 year old daughter in their rural farmhouse, had a run in with a group of burglars. During this, the farmer shot one of them with a legally owned rifle who subsequently died. The farmer has been charged with murder. When asked about this, Macron said that he does not believe in the right of self-defence. Which has caused uproar in France. Interestingly, almost zero coverage of the story in the British media but it is having an impact in France. Is Le Pen going to win? Then probably not. But this idea that all of the 'left' wing vote will swing behind Macron is not as certain as you might think. For example, one of the things Macron wants to do is raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. Le Pen opposes this. Stuff like this matters. The vote could be close. I cannot see, as much as I want it to happen, Le Pen winning but a couple of polls have it in margin of error territory. Lets see. I don't think it's that he doesn't believe in a 'right' to self defence, I believe he does not believe, or cannot fathom, the concept of 'self-defence'. He is French after all..
Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!! |
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Stirlingsays 11 Apr 22 7.26pm | |
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Everyone knows the real hot tub issue that will decide this election are the tax rates for onion sellers on bikes with baguettes, garlic and berets also factoring in.
Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Apr 2022 7.28pm) Attachment: OooRoo.JPG (130.28Kb)
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 11 Apr 22 7.34pm | |
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Originally posted by Nicholas91
I don't think it's that he doesn't believe in a 'right' to self defence, I believe he does not believe, or cannot fathom, the concept of 'self-defence'. He is French after all.. I see the p1ss taking joke. But seriously, Macron is basically a Parisian. A lot of the rest of France see things differently and remain French, not what the elites want to manipulate them into. This will be similar in many western countries, and it is here too. Look at how London votes and then the North didn’t.
COYP |
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Nicholas91 The Democratic Republic of Kent 11 Apr 22 7.46pm | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
I see the p1ss taking joke. But seriously, Macron is basically a Parisian. A lot of the rest of France see things differently and remain French, not what the elites want to manipulate them into. This will be similar in many western countries, and it is here too. Look at how London votes and then the North didn’t. I believe Paris is now akin to New York vs rest of US and indeed London vs most of UK etc. Was not too aware with regards to Paris but not the most shocking thing to hear!
Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!! |
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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 11 Apr 22 8.45pm | |
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Macron faces the classic problems of those who have held power for a while and who have consequently had to actually take decisions. He is no longer the unknown outsider ready to sweep the old away with his new broom. He has to defend how he has handled real events against untested theories in which everything is possible, and the sun always shines on green grass. From all I know, the law on self defence is similar in France to that in the UK. So I strongly doubt that what Macron meant was he disapproved of self defence in any circumstances. When life is at imminent risk, lethal force would be legitimate self-defence. What I suspect he meant was he was against that being extended. This reminds me of the notorious case of another farmer, Tony Martin, who shot and killed a teenage burglar, with a pump action shotgun he held illegally, as he had no firearms licence. He discovered two burglars in his house and shot them both as they were trying to flee. He was convicted of murder, but engendered a huge amount of sympathy from certain quarters, about the right to defend your home with whatever means you choose. Martin appealed and had his conviction reduced to manslaughter because of depression. He remained unrepentant and was convinced he was unfairly convicted.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 11 Apr 22 8.45pm | |
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Macron faces the classic problems of those who have held power for a while and who have consequently had to actually take decisions. He is no longer the unknown outsider ready to sweep the old away with his new broom. He has to defend how he has handled real events against untested theories in which everything is possible, and the sun always shines on green grass. From all I know, the law on self defence is similar in France to that in the UK. So I strongly doubt that what Macron meant was he disapproved of self defence in any circumstances. When life is at imminent risk, lethal force would be legitimate self-defence. What I suspect he meant was he was against that being extended. This reminds me of the notorious case of another farmer, Tony Martin, who shot and killed a teenage burglar, with a pump action shotgun he held illegally, as he had no firearms licence. He discovered two burglars in his house and shot them both as they were trying to flee. He was convicted of murder, but engendered a huge amount of sympathy from certain quarters, about the right to defend your home with whatever means you choose. Martin appealed and had his conviction reduced to manslaughter because of depression. He remained unrepentant and was convinced he was unfairly convicted.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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georgenorman 11 Apr 22 8.54pm | |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Macron faces the classic problems of those who have held power for a while and who have consequently had to actually take decisions. He is no longer the unknown outsider ready to sweep the old away with his new broom. He has to defend how he has handled real events against untested theories in which everything is possible, and the sun always shines on green grass. From all I know, the law on self defence is similar in France to that in the UK. So I strongly doubt that what Macron meant was he disapproved of self defence in any circumstances. When life is at imminent risk, lethal force would be legitimate self-defence. What I suspect he meant was he was against that being extended. This reminds me of the notorious case of another farmer, Tony Martin, who shot and killed a teenage burglar, with a pump action shotgun he held illegally, as he had no firearms licence. He discovered two burglars in his house and shot them both as they were trying to flee. He was convicted of murder, but engendered a huge amount of sympathy from certain quarters, about the right to defend your home with whatever means you choose. Martin appealed and had his conviction reduced to manslaughter because of depression. He remained unrepentant and was convinced he was unfairly convicted. He was.
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Grumbles 11 Apr 22 8.59pm | |
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Originally posted by Matov
I would agree I expect perhaps a significant number will vote Macron, but many on the far left would then see the far right as their home after all they are not much different. Some will not vote as Melenchon asked. Zemmour's supporters will all go Le Pen if they manage to get a cross in a box two times in a row. Most of the other less than 10%ers support will go Macron.
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