A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is I think very unlikely, It is just not the Chinese way of doing things. They are playing the very, very long game. That is not to say that they don’t want to give the impression that they might invade. In fact, that’s their entire point. They are following the ‘speak slowing and carry a big stick’ philosophy. Realpolitik will carry the day.

The development of Chinese power in Asia is not something that they see being completed in five years, rather it is a fifty-year project. The same is true in relation to the investments they have made in Africa. Both in infrastructure and in education they know that the advantages will play out twenty to thirty years from now. They also know that the US does not have a plan that will continue much beyond the end of each presidency.

Tens of thousands of Africans are currently being educated for free in Chinese Universities. They will go home fully engaged with the idea that China is Africa’s friend. And in general, they have made a much better go of being development partners in Africa than the west has. The Chinese will not tolerate corruption, they want value for money.

So much of this goes unobserved in the west, China has been trying to influence Taiwanese politics for decades. Not that successfully as yet, but these will be the strategies they choose. The international isolation of Taiwan makes it clear that no one is going to stand behind them militarily. They won’t even stand up for Taiwan in relation to sport. If no one is supporting Taiwan how can there be a war? The AUKUS thing is just a bit of bravado and button polishing.

China have no interest in a war in Taiwan. What would be the point?

Oh, and why all the anti-French stuff. They have behaved honourably. Why should they not be pissed off that a deal was made and then broken?

Edited by kuge (19 Sep 2021 4.10pm)

Australia is free to do business as it pleases. Originally a very big deal was made out of France getting the contract. The UK was snubbed. The French have not delivered and now Australia is free to dump them. A lot of the rhetoric on here seems to suggest somehow that China are the good guys and Britain, the US and Australia are sabre rattling.

The simple questions could be: are China great, are the people free?
Have China been sabre rattling for years in the are? Yet now some countries push back, but they are wrong, how exactly does that work?
Loads of the countries in that region are arming. Do we need to vilify them too? They haven't bought French either. France throwing a tantrum against English speaking influence in an election year, who'd have thought it?

Red and Blue Army!

Beefy negotiated the whole deal.

Red and Blue Army!

2010? So these new subs have a time travel capability?

Edited by HKOwen (19 Sep 2021 11.48pm)

Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance.

Like an independent Scotland and the EU

Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance.

France and Germany have been pursuing bilateral deals with China for 30 years. German and French car plants, none from other EU countries.

Let's have no tears for France over AUKUS. The issue is French elections next year and this will hurt Macron, which is a good thing.

Let's not pretend there is any European interest being pursued, only countries within Europe looking after their own interests.

IMHO, anyone who would rather the jobs went to France must really hate the UK

Edited by HKOwen (20 Sep 2021 8.40am)

Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance.