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Who has the numbers needed to govern?
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 chris123  hove actually 29 Mar 15 1.11pm |
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Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.05pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.00pm
The polls are only going in one direction, so unless you completely ignore all the forecasts, I'm not ignoring all the forecasts and it would be a major turnaround if SNP never won the vast majority of seats. Overall, polls can be highly volatile and in the full glare of an election campaign perhaps the final outcome won't reflect what we are seeing today.
So to keep the SNP out - there is but one option.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 29 Mar 15 1.17pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.11pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.05pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.00pm
The polls are only going in one direction, so unless you completely ignore all the forecasts, I'm not ignoring all the forecasts and it would be a major turnaround if SNP never won the vast majority of seats. Overall, polls can be highly volatile and in the full glare of an election campaign perhaps the final outcome won't reflect what we are seeing today.
So to keep the SNP out - there is but one option. I accept Scotland is certainly NOT fertile ground for the Conservatives ! When I mentioned "Volatility" I was referring to the national polls. IF the Conservatives don't end up as the largest party on the back of an economic revival and the current state of "Labour", I think Cameron will be "Toast".
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| chris123 hove actually 29 Mar 15 1.25pm |
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Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.17pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.11pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.05pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.00pm
The polls are only going in one direction, so unless you completely ignore all the forecasts, I'm not ignoring all the forecasts and it would be a major turnaround if SNP never won the vast majority of seats. Overall, polls can be highly volatile and in the full glare of an election campaign perhaps the final outcome won't reflect what we are seeing today.
So to keep the SNP out - there is but one option. I accept Scotland is certainly NOT fertile ground for the Conservatives ! When I mentioned "Volatility" I was referring to the national polls. IF the Conservatives don't end up as the largest party on the back of an economic revival and the current state of "Labour", I think Cameron will be "Toast".
Well my whole point is about the SNP holding the balance of power, so volatility in Scotland is not an issue - people will vote SNP or Labour. If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 29 Mar 15 1.34pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.25pm
If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear. I thought I made that perfectly clear when I used the word "Overall". Your interpretation dear chap !
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| chris123 hove actually 29 Mar 15 1.44pm |
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Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.34pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.25pm
If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear. I thought I made that perfectly clear when I used the word "Overall". Your interpretation dear chap ! Not at all volatile in Scotland, and my entire point is about SNP as a power broker. I understood from what you said that you did not agree with me and pointed out that polls can be volatile. My point is that this is wholly irrelevant as the Tories and Lib Dems will be wiped out in Scotland, so any volatility will only affect the SNP and Labour.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 29 Mar 15 1.53pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.44pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.34pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.25pm
If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear. I thought I made that perfectly clear when I used the word "Overall". Your interpretation dear chap ! Not at all volatile in Scotland, and my entire point is about SNP as a power broker. I understood from what you said that you did not agree with me and pointed out that polls can be volatile. My point is that this is wholly irrelevant as the Tories and Lib Dems will be wiped out in Scotland, so any volatility will only affect the SNP and Labour. Chris I can only repeat that I was referring to volatility in national terms. I don't think that the polls will be that volatile in Scotland so I am in agreement with you ! I also was in agreement that Scotland is not fertile territory for the Conservatives.Clearly SNP will win the vast majority of seats but whether they win as much as 53 we will of course find out.
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| chris123 hove actually 29 Mar 15 2.17pm |
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Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.53pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.44pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.34pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.25pm
If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear. I thought I made that perfectly clear when I used the word "Overall". Your interpretation dear chap ! Not at all volatile in Scotland, and my entire point is about SNP as a power broker. I understood from what you said that you did not agree with me and pointed out that polls can be volatile. My point is that this is wholly irrelevant as the Tories and Lib Dems will be wiped out in Scotland, so any volatility will only affect the SNP and Labour. Chris I can only repeat that I was referring to volatility in national terms. I don't think that the polls will be that volatile in Scotland so I am in agreement with you ! I also was in agreement that Scotland is not fertile territory for the Conservatives.Clearly SNP will win the vast majority of seats but whether they win as much as 53 we will of course find out.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 29 Mar 15 3.04pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 2.17pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.53pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.44pm
Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 1.34pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 1.25pm
If your point on volatility was not Scottish based, you should have made that clear. I thought I made that perfectly clear when I used the word "Overall". Your interpretation dear chap ! Not at all volatile in Scotland, and my entire point is about SNP as a power broker. I understood from what you said that you did not agree with me and pointed out that polls can be volatile. My point is that this is wholly irrelevant as the Tories and Lib Dems will be wiped out in Scotland, so any volatility will only affect the SNP and Labour. Chris I can only repeat that I was referring to volatility in national terms. I don't think that the polls will be that volatile in Scotland so I am in agreement with you ! I also was in agreement that Scotland is not fertile territory for the Conservatives.Clearly SNP will win the vast majority of seats but whether they win as much as 53 we will of course find out.
Great minds think alike !
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| The White Horse 29 Mar 15 5.08pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 12.35pm
53 SNP MP's in Westminster and they won't have influence? I think you may be on your own on that one! Look at the Lib Dems, they've got something like 57 MPs. They've lost two thirds of their voters and got hardly any of their policies implemented, have they really been the "kingmakers"? If the Tories had told the Lib Dems in 2010 to go f*ck themselves, they might have been seen as the unreasonable party and lost votes when the election was called again. If Labour tells the SNP to do one, this won't lose them any seats in England. And if the SNP have already got 40 odd seats in Scotland, they can't really lose any more and the Tories won't be winning any up there. All this chat about Labour and the SNP basically implies that they're the only party who could persuade another party to vote through a budget surely? So it's an undesirable agreement between Labour and the SNP, or a completely unworkable minority with the Tories/Lib Dems.
"The fox has his den. The bee has his hive. The stoat, has, uh... his stoat-hole... but only man chooses to make his nest in an investment opportunity.” Stewart Lee |
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| chris123 hove actually 29 Mar 15 6.01pm |
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Quote The White Horse at 29 Mar 2015 5.08pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 12.35pm
53 SNP MP's in Westminster and they won't have influence? I think you may be on your own on that one! Look at the Lib Dems, they've got something like 57 MPs. They've lost two thirds of their voters and got hardly any of their policies implemented, have they really been the "kingmakers"? If the Tories had told the Lib Dems in 2010 to go f*ck themselves, they might have been seen as the unreasonable party and lost votes when the election was called again. If Labour tells the SNP to do one, this won't lose them any seats in England. And if the SNP have already got 40 odd seats in Scotland, they can't really lose any more and the Tories won't be winning any up there. All this chat about Labour and the SNP basically implies that they're the only party who could persuade another party to vote through a budget surely? So it's an undesirable agreement between Labour and the SNP, or a completely unworkable minority with the Tories/Lib Dems. The Lib Dems have lost membership support for playing their role in the coalition. And when you're in a coalition you can't deliver your manifesto because of all the trade offs required - on both sides. The SNP won't support the Tories, the Lib Dems will be wiped out - and so it looks like the SNP and Labour could form a government. I don't understand your point about the SNP already having 40 odd seats - they have 6 in Westminster.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 29 Mar 15 6.06pm |
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Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 6.01pm
and so it looks like the SNP and Labour could form a government. God forbid.It's a chilling prospect. A deal between Labour and the SNP would give Alex Salmond the veto over every Budget, every law, every vote - he would, in his own words, "call the tune". A deal with the SNP - the party who want to break up Britain - is the only way Ed Miliband can get into power. And ordinary families would pay the price with higher taxes, more debt and weaker defences as the SNP try to scrap 'Trident', our independent nuclear deterrent. Edited by Willo (29 Mar 2015 6.09pm)
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| imbored UK 29 Mar 15 6.31pm |
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Quote Willo at 29 Mar 2015 6.06pm
Quote chris123 at 29 Mar 2015 6.01pm
and so it looks like the SNP and Labour could form a government. God forbid.It's a chilling prospect. A deal between Labour and the SNP would give Alex Salmond the veto over every Budget, every law, every vote - he would, in his own words, "call the tune". A deal with the SNP - the party who want to break up Britain - is the only way Ed Miliband can get into power. And ordinary families would pay the price with higher taxes, more debt and weaker defences as the SNP try to scrap 'Trident', our independent nuclear deterrent. Edited by Willo (29 Mar 2015 6.09pm) Out of curiosity what do you see as the alternative? The Tories joining forces with...? They are marginally more likely at present to gain a few more seats than Labour, but how would they function in government? Even if they formed an alliances with Lib Dems, UKIP and DUP they'd still have fewer seats than Labour and SNP should they decide to work together. I think people are going to come to regret the ultra biased Vote No push from British politicians and media.
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