Also - why don't they look at the facts.
In May with a similar number of cases there were over 400 deaths and two weeks later still well over 250 - today we have less than 20 against the same (as May 13th) positive tests.
Cases might be up but the death rate appears to be way down.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics!

I just wanted to check the understanding of the impact of the number of tests that might be coming back as a false ding thought as I think this is critical to understanding the true scale of the issue currently and does not seem to be getting much airtime in the MSM.

From looking online I have gleaned that approximately 1 person in 2000 is currently infected with CV19 and that the false positive rate generated by the PCR test is likely to be somewhere between 0.8% and 2%.

So if we test 200,000 people per day we would be likely to get 100 positive test results (200,000/2000). However with a false positive rate of 0.8% (this is at the lowest end of the expected error rate) you will get 1600 false positives (200,000/0..

So in total there are now 1700 positive tests of which 1600 are false positives and 100 real positives which gives an error rate of 94%.

It appears to me that our policy is driven by the number of “cases” which could be significantly less than those declared by the Govt.

My caveat is that this is my understanding of the maths and I could have got the wrong end of the stick so I am happy to be corrected?

Morning Dolphin.

This is my understanding.

The PCR test that is used to identify whether someone has CV19 or not has an error rate of between approx 1% and 2% due to, amongst other things, the sensitivity of the test and the risk that it is picking up viral fragments from someone who might have had CV19 previously (but is no longer infectious) as well as those who might have had another coronavirus (there are a few of them).

I believe I have read that the actual true rate of infection of people in the general population with CV19 is approximately 1 in 2000 people.

With 200,000 tests now being conducted each day - 1% of those (this is the error rate) is coming back as positive even when the person does not have CV19 this will equate to 2,000 cases.

The actual number of people that will have CV19 would be only 100 ( based on 1 in 2000 people).

So the total number of cases would show 2,100 which would seem to be a scary figure used by the Government when the actual number should be 100 only.

Therefore the error rate is 95% - this would mean that 95% of all tests are incorrectly showing someone as being positive with CV19 when they do not have the virus.

So a 1% error rate can lead to 95% of cases being wrongly diagnosed as positive.

These “high” number of cases is what the Government is using to drive it’s lockdown policy so does have an impact on all of our lives.

As I mentioned I might have this wrong but there seems to be much discussion on social media on this point but very little on MSM.

If anyone else has seen this and understands whether this is in-fact broadly correct (or not as the case maybe) I would appreciate some comment?

Just for clarity I do believe that CV19 exists and is a nasty virus especially for the old and vulnerable but I do have serious concerns about the strategy being implemented by Government and the enormous damage this has caused and will continue to do so.

Did not realise previous post turned some percentages into smiley faces..

Thanks

I guess the issue is that the actual Covid 19 virus is not the actual killer. What it does is effectively weaken the body to such an extent that other, underlying, causes then manifest themselves hence why I believe that almost all Covid deaths occur in people with two underlying medical issues already.

So I guess they take the 28 day period as the cut off for those other issue to either kill the patient or else be dealt with, hence the bus victim being included but I would assume such accidental deaths are probably for the purposes of the statistics deemed irrelevant.

And from a political POV it is better for them to over-estimated deaths than under because then they are accused of covers ups rather than just being to pessimistic.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

My mother died on 13 July as a result of a lockdown in her Care Home where others had COVID-19. She fell as a result of the muscle wastage compounded by poor care due to staffing problems. IMO it was a COVID-19 related death.

Family friend of 45 died on Sunday night. Heart issues before Covid, unseen until 2-3 weeks ago. Diagnosed blood cancer. Told they won’t be treating him. Sent home. Blue light to local hospital in Basingstoke. Heart kept going by apparatus. Then up to specialist Birmingham hospital. Not allowed to see anyone. Died Sunday night. His mum saw him that day. She’s one of the nicest people you can find and will understand government making decisions on saving bigger numbers at a cost to smaller number but I don’t know about this and keeping hospitals effectively closed for months until a month ago.

COYP