So yes, there is a huge risk in changing manager. I'd also point out that even if Roy feels no connection to the club whatsoever, you can almost guarantee he is 'trying his best', limited as that may be, where some others may see a short gig here as a throwaway and thus lose any enthusiasm to achieve anything.

It may be a significant gamble but it becomes more so the longer this goes on. I'm not saying that I think we will magically become a much better team under a new manager, or that we have a world class squad that is underperforming, but when the manager is seemingly putting out that which could be a midtable side to settle for a low scoring loss each week, which sometimes translates into losses against relegation candidates and thrashings by bigger sides, the fans are unhappy, the players seem unhappy and a win comes around as often as Christmas, it may be a gamble worth taking.

I would argue the other gamble, sticking with the manager, is it's own entity but not far off that of changing. If the mood becomes very toxic around the club and fanbase, plus the manager has no answers beyond doing what he has been doing for decades, it could be a very, very dark time indeed.

Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!

Look at it another way.

We have a point a game now. If we average a point a game from now, we will finish with 38 points - almost certainly enough to stay up very comfortably. The idea that the team is broken doesn't seem to tally with the fact that we are on target to achieve the requirement, and have achieved it to date.

I argue we are more likely to get that point-a-game playing for a nil-nil than we are playing for a 4-3 win every week. I am simplifying of course, but we all know Roy, Allardyce, and Pulis succeeded that way.

Is it fun? Christ no. Is it the most likely strategy to work? Sadly, yes.

Why would the club change a man most suited to this ultra-pragmatic approach for one less so, especially when the method is working already?

Some recent examples :

He 'Pulled the trigger' on Pardew after 17 PL games that season with the club 17th in the league.We finished 14th under Allardyce after a significant spend.

Vieira was dismissed 27 games into the season with the club 12th in the PL. We finished 11th under Mr Hodgson.

Edited by Willo (24 Jan 2024 1.43pm)

In Roy's previous reign you always had confidence he'd keep us up even when the football was terrible. I just don't think so many people have that confidence anymore. His selection decisions have been odd at times, his public remarks have been tetchy and none of the players seem to be thriving. Between them Olise and Eze have saved us this season with cameos of brilliance. I find little to lay at Roy's door for anything but a couple of results in Manchester. By contrast I have seen several managers in and around us make changes to earn points, who have reacted in games to turn things around, who have taken risks, or in the case of Everton played to the strength of their squad (i.e. old fashioned physical and direct). This season we've pretty much done the same thing every game and if it hasn't worked little has been done to change it but throw on a couple of subs in the last 20 minutes.

Precisely.

Of course, what we don't know is what (if anything) is happening behind the scenes. Parish famously sacked De Boer in record time, and didn't give very long at all to Warnock, either, but yet he doesn't have a 'trigger-happy' reputation particularly.

I think that is because, in the case of FDB it soon became apparent that the manager's methods were all awfully wrong, and that in the case of Warnock, he just wasn't up to the job at that level (something his career has proved).

I think that is part and parcel of SP being in the building - the decisions to sack the manager are not taken on the basis of runs of results and form alone, as they would be with an absentee owner. I imagine Parish speaks with people, gets the vibe, and to some extent listens to his key staff (the players).

We don't know if Vieria got the boot partly because of Parish's sense of relationships behind the scenes (it is rumoured, though who knows?). One thing for sure, twice Parish has turned to Roy to take over and steady the ship, on about four occasions he has given him a new contract when perhaps it was not obvious that he would, so he must trust the way he runs things.

Thats not certain to protect Roy from the chop of course, but it might be a key difference between Roy and those who got the chop.

Again I sort of agree in parts.

There was a definite huge shift in our play when Roy came in last season and, regardless of whether his tactics were fundamentally different, it was by a distance the best we've played under him.

You could attribute it to things getting very bad under Vieira and a new manager bounce but we're not playing the same now as we did then.

The situation feels similar, things have gone stale and I'm not sure he knows how to change it. His overall demeanour in post-defeat interviews suggests that he's not enjoying it and maybe, at his age, it's becoming a hassle he could do without.

You're right about the old guard all playing in that way but I think the Premier League has moved past them now. Roy and Sam have taken teams down in recent seasons and obviously we are in danger this time.

Teams like Brighton and Brentford have come up and been successful playing progressive football. Both have finished higher than us despite us being in the league a longer and having more resources.

The issue with Roy now is that he is probably the most experienced active manager in world football, so it's difficult to credibly criticise his methods which are born out of decades of knowhow.

However, that also creates a stubborness and inflexibility within him that means he refuses to give fringe players a fair chance or adjust his tactics, despite players like AWB and Mitchell who he was forced to play through injury in the past, eventually going on to become first teamers.

I don't know what the answer is and perhaps you're right and a new manager will make it worse but at the moment it feels as though there's more of a potential upside than a downside.

Edited by Canterbury Palace (24 Jan 2024 2.08pm)

We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...