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 matt_himself  Matataland 24 Apr 17 9.06am |
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Originally posted by CambridgeEagle
He will definitely win. Main surprise is that he came first this round. Le Pen was favourite to be first. She's a criminal hiding behind parliamentary immunity and a horrific racist. Macron winning is good news for France. Whilst I would never vote for Le Pen and find her politics odious, I don't think that 'Macron winning is good news for France'. He will be a lame duck President as he has no political vehicle behind him and he will be forced to work with the established political parties. His party is less than a year old and consists of the usual 'meaning wells' and 'nutjobs' that typically make up fringe parties. France is in desperate need of reform. They need their Thatcher. However, Macron is not going to deliver that and once again highlights the problem of lack of talent in most established parties in most mature democracies.
"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02 |
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| steeleye20 Croydon 24 Apr 17 9.08am |
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Originally posted by CambridgeEagle
He will definitely win. Main surprise is that he came first this round. Le Pen was favourite to be first. She's a criminal hiding behind parliamentary immunity and a horrific racist. Macron winning is good news for France. The French system is good they havent had a nutcase in charge for a long time. They still have to go again but I presume alliances are made to filter out extremes of right or left. So the beaten candidates more likely to go with Macron and their votes with them.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 24 Apr 17 11.52am |
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Thing with the Far Right is that periodically they need to get elected to actually do something, in order for people to realise they're incapable of any kind of government. The popular support the Far Right has isn't 'a hardened cadre of street fighting fascists or neo-Nazi revolutionaries, but angry p8ssed off normal people who are kind of acting out. The Far Right will spectacularly self destruct when they have to deliver in a democratic society, in the same way the far left would. Its easy to say something popular, when you don't have to deliver. Look at how Trumps popularity has slumped post election - when it became clear that the people who'd suffer the most were those who voted for him.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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Kermit8  Hevon 24 Apr 17 12.01pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Thing with the Far Right is that periodically they need to get elected to actually do something, in order for people to realise they're incapable of any kind of government. The popular support the Far Right has isn't 'a hardened cadre of street fighting fascists or neo-Nazi revolutionaries, but angry p8ssed off normal people who are kind of acting out. The Far Right will spectacularly self destruct when they have to deliver in a democratic society, in the same way the far left would. Its easy to say something popular, when you don't have to deliver. Look at how Trumps popularity has slumped post election - when it became clear that the people who'd suffer the most were those who voted for him. Supporting/enabling anything far-right (and far-left) makes them anything but considering the well-known nihilism that always evolves with such groups. At best it makes them ignorant about the result of such support. 'Normal' people just aren't as dangerous. Edited by Kermit8 (24 Apr 2017 12.03pm)
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| CambridgeEagle Sydenham 24 Apr 17 12.01pm |
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Originally posted by matt_himself
Whilst I would never vote for Le Pen and find her politics odious, I don't think that 'Macron winning is good news for France'. He will be a lame duck President as he has no political vehicle behind him and he will be forced to work with the established political parties. His party is less than a year old and consists of the usual 'meaning wells' and 'nutjobs' that typically make up fringe parties. France is in desperate need of reform. They need their Thatcher. However, Macron is not going to deliver that and once again highlights the problem of lack of talent in most established parties in most mature democracies. Given the parliamentary vote is in June no-one knows who he will have to work with. En Marche have a candidate in every seat. Also numerous high profile ministers and current parliamentarians have voiced support for Macron. I see no reason currently why he won't be able to push through change. If June's vote leaves France in a deadlock I will be less optimistic. I certainly wouldn't say though that France is in desperate need of reform. Productivity is reasonable, inequality low, deficit is lower than ours and public debt only a tiny bit higher. A bit more grease on the wheels is what's needed. French markets have certainly reacted positively.
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 Hrolf The Ganger 24 Apr 17 12.15pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Thing with the Far Right is that periodically they need to get elected to actually do something, in order for people to realise they're incapable of any kind of government. The popular support the Far Right has isn't 'a hardened cadre of street fighting fascists or neo-Nazi revolutionaries, but angry p8ssed off normal people who are kind of acting out. The Far Right will spectacularly self destruct when they have to deliver in a democratic society, in the same way the far left would. Its easy to say something popular, when you don't have to deliver. Look at how Trumps popularity has slumped post election - when it became clear that the people who'd suffer the most were those who voted for him. You are essentially right but the fact that normal people are prepared to vote for hard line right winger means that a very significant proportion of society is totally dissatisfied by what mainstream politics is doing to their countries.
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| Mr_Gristle In the land of Whelk Eaters 24 Apr 17 12.48pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You are essentially right but the fact that normal people are prepared to vote for hard line right winger means that a very significant proportion of society is totally dissatisfied by what mainstream politics is doing to their countries. I agree with all of that. However, someone like Corbyn comes along with many (not all) policies aimed at upsetting the status quo and all you can do is mock...... Unless the only thing about "mainstream politics" you don't like is the lack of a brick wall across all points of entry to the UK?
Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune) |
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| Kermit8 Hevon 24 Apr 17 1.05pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You are essentially right but the fact that normal people are prepared to vote for hard line right winger means that a very significant proportion of society is totally dissatisfied by what mainstream politics is doing to their countries. See, Jaime. They are jumping on the coat-tails of your 'normals' already and going 'wheeeeeee' Edited by Kermit8 (24 Apr 2017 1.06pm)
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| matt_himself Matataland 24 Apr 17 1.18pm |
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Originally posted by CambridgeEagle
Given the parliamentary vote is in June no-one knows who he will have to work with. En Marche have a candidate in every seat. Also numerous high profile ministers and current parliamentarians have voiced support for Macron. I see no reason currently why he won't be able to push through change. If June's vote leaves France in a deadlock I will be less optimistic. I certainly wouldn't say though that France is in desperate need of reform. Productivity is reasonable, inequality low, deficit is lower than ours and public debt only a tiny bit higher. A bit more grease on the wheels is what's needed. French markets have certainly reacted positively. Wearing rose tinted glasses, I see. It will be extremely difficult for a new part to unseat established members of parliament. En Marche may well be fielding candidates in all constituencies but they do not have the infrastructure to gain a majority. I think your view is aligned to your hatred for Le Pen, rather than looking objectively at Macron, his proposition and what challenges he will face in the future. Your statement that France doesn't need reform is laughable. France is in urgent need of reform. The state needs to be rolled back and market forces need to be allowed to compete on a level playing field.
"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02 |
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| elgrande bedford 24 Apr 17 1.22pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
See, Jaime. They are jumping on the coat-tails of your 'normals' already and going 'wheeeeeee' Edited by Kermit8 (24 Apr 2017 1.06pm) But you just said you would hate anyone from the far right or left,although Corbyn may not be extreme left,he will be bullied into having many far left MPS.
always a Norwood boy, where ever I live. |
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| Kermit8 Hevon 24 Apr 17 1.27pm |
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Originally posted by elgrande
But you just said you would hate anyone from the far right or left,although Corbyn may not be extreme left,he will be bullied into having many far left MPS. I think you may be confusing me with a Labour voter. Not presently nor for quite a while.
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| CambridgeEagle Sydenham 24 Apr 17 1.29pm |
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Originally posted by matt_himself
Wearing rose tinted glasses, I see. It will be extremely difficult for a new part to unseat established members of parliament. En Marche may well be fielding candidates in all constituencies but they do not have the infrastructure to gain a majority. I think your view is aligned to your hatred for Le Pen, rather than looking objectively at Macron, his proposition and what challenges he will face in the future. Your statement that France doesn't need reform is laughable. France is in urgent need of reform. The state needs to be rolled back and market forces need to be allowed to compete on a level playing field. Just like it would be difficult for anyone to unseat the candidates of the established parties? The communist party won almost as many votes as the Republicans. I'm not wearing rose tinted glasses merely stating that predicting the June votes isn't straightforward and no-one knows who he will have to deal with to get things done at the point in time. Given the high profile politicians already backing him before yesterday there is nothing I've seen that would suggest he objectively won't be able to be effective. I've read his manifesto so I've made my opinions based on that. If you re-read my post it doesn't mention Le Pen once. My wife is French and all her family still live in France so I have some experience of what people think in France and what it's like to live in France. Given the data and personal experience I see no need for "reform" other than in making politics a bit cleaner - no more Fillons and Le Pens abusing the system. Their economy has plenty of potential and their tax system is a lot fairer than ours and in need of far less reform than ours. Our tax system is a mess. I'd be interested to see some data and analysis that supports your theory that France is in urgent need of reform and to believe otherwise is laughable. Macron will provide some deregulation of the markets but it won't be reform. Fully deregulated markets are inefficient and biased.
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