When there is not a single Palestinian left in either Gaza or the West Bank.

As things stand over half of the population of Gaza is under 18. Just think what that means in 20 years time? Israel is literally seeing the bottom rushing up at it and it knows that despite it technology and billions in aid from the West, it cannot survive as things stand.

It needs the Palastinians gone and at least a million or so Jews from other parts of the world to go back there. Just its own demographic problems, with the Orthodox the only group actually increasing and presenting all kinds of problems on their own in terms of how other more secular Israeli Jews react, are cause for concern let about how hostile populations expanding massively.

I am not even sure a ground invasion will take place. Not sure the Israeli Army is up to the task of the kind of vicious street fighting that will be required against an enemy willing to be ruthless beyond measure and fighting on ground they know every single inch of.

Instead, just wrenching up the pressure so that a mass population transfer becomes the 'humane' option. With the majority of that heading to Europe.

Could take months, possibly a year but it is gong to happen. And will actually be presented in a way that will seem to be anti-Semitic. Playing on a theme of how unreasonable Jews are. How you cannot deal with such people so the kindest thing possible is to 'rescue' the poor Palestinians. Probably headed up by some public face who will become the figurehead.

Think a Greta type. 100% astroturfed but playing it as anti-establishment.

Only outcome possible.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Palestinian ethnic cleansing has been happening by creep for decades. Look at the death statistics and the land-grabbing by Israel. The world just let it happen.
What we are seeing now is the enforced movement of an entire population, to neighbouring areas, or further afield. They either have to move, or be subject to starvation or bombing.

Arab anger will probably see petrol in the UK reach £4 a litre.

I disengage, I turn the page.

The hospital 'bombing'.
Untangling the wordage used (and unused), what I conclude is :
There was a rocket fired by Hamas
This was shot down by the Israeli Iron Shield missile system.
The debris from this interception fell onto the hospital.

Obviously not deliberate by either 'side'. But both capable of blaming each other.

I disengage, I turn the page.

There are only ever two outcomes to who runs a country.

What capital wants and thus funds.

Violent overthrow.

Applying that to Israel we see two outcomes and neither of them are a two state solution.

A violent overthrow would be the destruction of Israel and millions of deaths....How could that happen? The defeat of the IDF via Hezbollah invasion.....How likely is that? Not likely, but a war is likely at some point, especially if they enter Gaza.

The potential risks for regional and less likely but even world war shouldn't be dismissed from that.....Not that I'd agree with any of it.

Capital......means the solution is one state.....Israel.

The Palestinians becomes a defacto confined minority within Israel restricted in their movements and resources and slowly over time they are reduced in number by paid emigration.

That leaves Israel with Iran left.....Israel will continually hector American administrations, from within and out, to get their boys to die fighting their war.

The likely outcome for Israel is a gradual move to one state and a slow decline of its Palestinian population......It will have to survive both the intermittent terrorism and attacks from Iran and its Lebanon proxy.

Edited by Stirlingsays (24 Oct 2023 5.57pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Israel seems to act unilaterally, but the nation is unable to be self-supporting financially. It requires huge US$dollar subsidy to continue to exist, and that includes military support (in terms of equipment and technology).
Because of the multiple interests of neighbouring countries, makes predicting outcomes difficult, but means some kind of proxy war cannot be ruled out. There's everything to play for, and crucially,....everything to lose.

I disengage, I turn the page.

Trying to explain to a left-wing Israeli whose currently in the states how it is the Western left aligns itself with a genocidal theocratic death cult instead of the Israeli left, which is an absolutely crunchy old-school collectivist kibbutz left, is an intellectual journey, let me tell you.

"So, you know the George Floyd/BLM thing, right?"

He nods.

"So imagine that was your moral prism to the entire universe, and you tried to apply it, armed with almost no knowledge of Israel itself, to this situation...that's how we got here."

Insert more confused looks.