So was China.

But we are living in the modern world and need to deal with the reality of organised population sizes and military capacities and types of regimes.

Poland is in Nato and unless it attacks Russia is unlikely to be attacked itself.....The fact that we are talking about a Nato/Russia conflict exposures just how serious the situation is and why de-escalation and negotiation is so important.

The longer it goes on the more entrenched and intractable it becomes and calm heads and realistic calculation are our only real defence.

Edited by Stirlingsays (30 Mar 2024 10.12am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Yep, we have seen in recent years the old truism that fear wins over reason most times. There has been a huge effort put into dubious fear mongering towards the trustful non political normie. A restriction of alternative viewpoints. Imagine what it would be like without Twitter.

Edited by Stirlingsays (30 Mar 2024 10.38am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Neither side releases those statistics but that does kind of sound realistic.

I guess if you haven't heard their side of the story then you could believe it's for no gain. To me their motivation is as obvious as Israel's.....the difference being that the Russian war was far more avoidable.

However, as you aren't a youngster and would have been around in 91 when the Berlin wall came down and what happened in Russia afterwards I should think some idea of how we got here should take root.

Edited by Stirlingsays (04 May 2024 5.10pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Several interesting analyses on the state of the war in Ukraine here:-

[Link]

They differ a little but are unanimous in their assessment that Russia is not winning and that the West ought not to be attempting to force negotiations at this point, not least because there isn't anyone to negotiate with. Putin hasn't changed his demands, or seemingly, his objectives.

This is a little out of date as it was written before Congress released the aid package that is providing Ukraine with more, and better, defences.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

After Cameron gave Ukraine the all clear to use British Storm Shadow missiles in Russia, Russia have stated that attacks on its mainland by those missiles will mean they will attack us here.

We are ruled by idiots and unless people start working to de-escalate this tinder box could go off. Cameron has always been a disaster and I hope that our defence department makes it very clear that what he said is rescinded.

So for myself I'm rather hoping that the Ukrainians don't use our storm shadow missiles to attack the Crimean bridge and that instead we start towards finding a resolution to ending this war instead of jumping to the State's department's terrible tune.

However from Ukraine's perspective it's in their interests to widen the war...but a lot will be going on behind the scenes....so for better or worse we will find out.

Edited by Stirlingsays (07 May 2024 12.45am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Well, Russia built a railway through its land bridge instead so it's not as though Crimea isn't being supplied.

The long standing problem with this war is that western leaders made a fundamental mistake at the beginning....I contend that's due to the socially liberal mindset that's been divorced from more equal wars since Korea....as opposed to a conservative mindset that doesn't assume success.

That's where we are....the acute problem is that our western leaders have a detachment from reality and can't bring themselves to accept the huge blunder they made....something that is costing us all while they are financially insulated of course.

There were a lot of assumptions on success in this war when the reality was that to beat Russia we would have to undergo significant deprivation and risk....hell these fools are taking huge risks anyway.

The real argument is that fighting this war requires a scale that isn't worth it. To believe it's worth it you have to believe an existential threat comes from Russia....which frankly just doesn't deal in the facts of the situation....but hey, if the last few years has taught me anything is that people will believe just about anything.

So our politicians, like Sunak and Cameron lie to the public about the risks to us if Putin takes Ukraine...or succeeds in Ukraine whatever that actually means. However, as stated many times, if they truly believed we were under an existential threat then we would already be in a war economy.

The reality is that not one Nato country has entered a war economy. The only two countries in a war economy....which is typically war and defence spending of 40 percent of GDP are Russia and Ukraine.....We have made a commitment to...at some point raise our defence spending to 2.5 percent.

There are words and there are actions. Words can be lies whereas someone's actions are a more truthful and unavoidable reveal.

Regardless it appears the strategy by the geniuses in the State department (and thus all its client states) is to fight until the last Ukrainian in the hope that some magic happens to change the dynamic. The Ukrainians aren't going to be allowed a vote on that...the latest mobilisation law, which is highly unpopular seems forced onto them by the Americans who attached it as a requirement for the last military aid package.

So essentially the plan appears to draw out this war as long as possible rather than come to some negotiated settlement.

It just seems that the same lack of a realistic exit plan that we saw in Iraq and elsewhere from decades ago still resides here. The incumbents make terrible decisions and then just kick the can down the road spending a fortune before disappearing down the line from accountability by the time it all ends in ruins.

My principle concern is at what cost this comes to my country. You can imagine my fury when the unelected David Cameron went to Kiev and pledged three billion pounds per year to Ukraine.....We have food banks in this country and Cameron gives Ukraine three billion for a war they can't win.

However, the bigger picture is what happens post war and who funds what remains of Ukraine. That is going to cost far far more....I've heard the estimate to just keep the bare bones of Ukraine running requires eighty billion a year. When we are talking about the rebuilding we are talking into the trillions.

Then you have the young person problem in Ukraine.....I don't see how that works.

This is what happens when bad decisions are made at the top....they cascade and no one is big enough to change course and mistakes are turned into tragedies.

The risk taking is emboldened to a large extent as none of these leaders or their children have to get into a trench. Another flaw within our now western globalised wealth class is that as long as they go along with the group think..failed or not they can then avoid accountability for failures and are often rewarded with failed upwards jobs in globalised institutions.

So even if their populations vote them out they are insulated from consequences....and often their national taxpayers are still forced to pay their wages.

This is not a healthy system....It's a form of modern aristocracy and largely divorced from the results based meritocracy that nations require if they are going to succeed.

At least a few of us can say we pointed out these blunders at the time....the more we go on the huge disaster of Johnson and Biden convincing Zelensky to not sign that peace deal appears starker by the day.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 May 2024 4.04am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)