I would have thought the 'readers added context' would have been enough to probably work out that this one isnt real.

Asides from the original 'article' from The Intel Drop is basically a 'trust me bro'. The follow up video essentially has a 35 year old man (apparently) who despite being arrested I assume on terrorism / being a foriegn agent is just allowed to be sat on a chair with no form of restraint despite the fact that in pretty much every picture I can find of someone being held in Russian custody shows them caged and / or cuffed. Very generous of his captors I spose.

Oddly enough, i'd have thought given the sheer overwelming evidence on this one that the Russian media would be all over it. Apparently not, at time of writing in appears a man getting 3.5 years in jail for upsetting some Muslims in Russia (on the orders of Kyiv of course) gets more prime time.

[Link]

Edited by snytaxx (27 Feb 2024 2.02pm)

The "readers added context" has just been added.

I'll answer some of this when I have the time and inclination. However, my interest in pointless time taking back and forths is much more limited at present.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Costly? The Russians have vast reserves of troops. Their war economy is starting to thrive, and their wider economy is doing well as well.

For perhaps the first time since the Wall fell, Russians are investing in Russia. All I see is a nation going from strength to strength.

Russia feeds itself. It heats itself. And now, invests in itself.

Sanctions? LOL.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

It is as though we inhabit parallel universes. It genuinely feels like that when it comes to this wretched situation. I have to watch Europeans killing each other at the behest of non-Europeans for motives that make no sense other than making Europe weaker and more dependent on non-Europeans. And people like you literally lap up all the bulls*** and present it like somehow Russia is losing this war?

Are you really so incapable of actually digging below the surface of 'reports' from the likes of the BBC and Newsweek?

We live in a world in which the mainstream media told us Brexit would never happen. That Trump would never even get the Republican nomination let alone win. And now, that Russia are losing. LOL.

We live in end times for the West. It has never been so over.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Blimey...I did what I wanted to avoid and wrote a long response. Let's not make a habit of it as I'm actually quite busy in life at the moment.

Anyway in answer:

Yes, Russia is winning.

If you have been following the actual battlefield situation you'd surely know that.

Russia's population size is something like three times Ukraine and that's ignoring that Ukraine has had significant population flight compared to Russia. So that means all that Russia has to do is match Ukraine in combat and not collapse financially and it wins.

The advantages for Russia stack up, I could go through them all but the most obvious one aside population is that it has far more artillery and shells than Ukraine/Nato and....and as most battlefield casualties are from artillery...whatever the causality figure is for Russia it'll be higher for Ukraine.

Russia's production capacity and alliances mean that it can...in my estimation....carry on without massively suffering for over two more years. I have to be honest and I don't think Ukraine has another year left in it....Not unless Nato gets involved and America really dips into its pockets...even then it just doesn't have the manpower.

I've always said that there is a win scenario for Nato/Ukraine but that it comes at quite a cost and not a little risk and its that cost that most governments aren't prepared to pay considering that in truth they know a negotiation is how this ends.

Regardless most of the sophisticated and/or long range weaponry and capabilities that Ukraine has are from Nato and their successes that they have with those...are mainly Nato's.

Personally I suspect that Nato have been operating far more in Ukraine than they have admitted to....We won't find out until later no doubt. For example what's the chances that the guys operating those Himars are Ukrainians?. I suspect not that high.

If those reports about 10 Russian aircraft are true, then that's Patriot systems being moved close to the front, which is a considerable risk with a multibillion system. Russia claim to have knocked out two of them over the week....as with all of these claims none of us can be sure without proper evidence (and even that can be faked now).....though you seem to take one side's claims as kosher.

I think I could have rephased that better. I didn't mean that Macron said that precise thing, what I meant was that he recognised that Ukraine didn't have the troop numbers to succeed against Russia....it would have to take most out of the economy, which would then economically collapse as it's being kept afloat as it is on loans anyway.

Europe is waiting for the US to financially keep Ukraine in the war....even though 60 billion is bare bones. Europe, as a whole, is looking to limit its financial exposure to Ukraine, the 50 billion they just gave is over four years and is about only a quarter of what Ukraine really needs to run properly.....All this was wholly predictable at the start....it was a US state department project from the start that they are roped into it....now rather dangerously.

It's a bit more nuanced than that. The Ukrainian population has been told for two years that Ukraine will win. Similar to both Russian and Western media alternative views against war policies has been largely kept off the mainstream. So the expectation within these populations is high.

However, unlike you I wager that if the Ukrainian public were given a chance to end the war now I think they would take it. The elections have been suspended for three years and everybody says that it's the constitution..Well, this didn't stop the US pushing pretty hard for an election in Ukraine and the reality is that Zelensky wouldn't have it.....that's because Zelensky isn't as popular as the western media makes out.....He came to power promising peace with Russia and instead just did whatever the US told him to.

In terms of Russia, Putin has made it clear that the best offer for Ukraine was in 2022 and that it won't get those terms again. In fact, the recent announcement by the head of Nato that Ukraine will join it (not sure he can decide that without the next president agreeing)....well, anyway that pretty much ensures that Russia isn't going to stop now if Ukraine is going to continue to be used to threaten it.

Costly to Russia? Sure, however it's costly to Europe and ruinous to Ukraine....It's now a massive financial liability that will lose its independence regardless of how the war ends.

However, the war is existential for Ukraine and Russia. The idea that you can convince Russia to leave Ukraine is fantasy. It's just not going to happen. That kind of thinking rejected the peace process.

I think this is a good question.

Initially...if you were bored enough...at the start of this thread I was quite favourable to Ukraine's position. It was only late on that my position changed once I had looked into both positions quite deeply.

However, that doesn't change the fact that I've always disagreed with Russia's decision to invade Ukraine. They invaded Ukraine under a complete wrong impression of what it would lead to.

However, the rights and wrongs of how the war came to be? On that I've always agreed more with the Russia position on that. From a utilitarian perspective...a practical reality perspective I consider the lead up to this war to be totally irrational and ruinous.

Stupid group think....follow the leader politics....similar as with covid.

Does my politics feed into this? It's a good question and I think I would be lying if I thought politics doesn't play into anyone's position on this....including mine. However, the Ukraine/Russia war has divided opinion within my own political sphere and there are plenty of people I align with who support this war.....So it's a difficult question to answer. Probably a question for anyone, including yourself.

I'm very distrusting of the State...that doesn't mean I think they lie about everything...but I don't just accept things as I did once upon a time....On these boards I was a neo con on Iraqi and Syria...I think I was proven mistaken on both...I was lied to.

Anyway I'll end with a quote from David Sacks the paypal co founder, which I pretty much agree with:

'The war in Ukraine is based on lies—lies about how it started, how it continues, and how it will end.

We are told that Ukraine is winning, when in fact it is losing. We are told that war makes NATO stronger, when in fact it weakens it. We are told that Ukraine's biggest problem is a lack of funds from the US Congress, when in fact the West cannot produce enough ammunition - a problem that will take years to solve. We are told that Russia is suffering heavy losses, when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers - another problem that cannot be solved with money.

We are told that peace is with us, when in fact the world majority considers US policy to be the height of stupidity. We are told that there is no possibility of peace, when in fact we have rejected many opportunities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine continues to fight, it will improve its negotiating position, when in fact the terms will only become much worse than those that were already available and rejected.
However, lies will manage to prolong the war. Congress will allocate more funds. Ukraine is mobilizing more young men and women to put them into the meat grinder. Ultimately, a crisis will erupt in Kyiv and the Zelensky government will be overthrown.

And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lies in smoldering ruins on the funeral pyre that they themselves built, the liars will say: “Well, we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having exposed anyone who spoke the truth as puppets of the enemy, the liars will say: “We did everything we could. <…> Then, having shifted the blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, just as they moved to Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.'

Edited by Stirlingsays (28 Feb 2024 6.57am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)