I think that's fair enough. It seems to be very fortified and difficult to take. Even more so than Bakhmut, which itself took....I think an estimated twenty thousand Russian lives to take, mostly Wagner.

I think the sources I'm using try to be accurate, and you can find those on both sides....just as you can find those who want to craft the battlefield in a more positive light for their side.

I'm hearing that Russia are inside the city, the latest being that Ukraine might have forced them out of western part but Russia having gain via the residential sectors of the south. The coke plant in the north seems to be steady at the moment for Ukraine while Russia push at supply roads.

How long Ukraine will fight in Avdiivka is difficult to say. Maybe they can exhaust the Russian advance there. Only the next few weeks will say.

Personally I think they will fall back if the coke plant falls or gets cut off.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

It's on my list to watch for sure, but I did see the part at the security council which just surreal. Sadly I can't see it changing many minds on here given it's produced by the BBC and not a reputable news source like RT or Grayzone.

There are many surreal moments. It ought to be compulsory viewing before anyone starts to suggest the west’s approach to be wrong. The idea that a deal was on the table early on is blown right out of the water. Putin was just playing games. He tells barefaced lies, cannot be trusted and has no regard at all for human life, whether Russian or other. He only cares about power.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

It will be the usual russian talking points I suspect. The deep state, traditional values, Russia is actually the victim, NATO expansion etc. Stuff you need a tin foil hat for.

What would be interesting is it Tucker ask questions such as "how did Russia manage to lose 20% of it's black sea fleet to a country with no navy or air superiority?". "Why won't he call it a war?". "What would he be willing to concede in negotiations?".

I won't hold much hope though.

I'm just looking forward to an interview with a leader who can make coherent sentences.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Indeed, when it comes to Biden or Trump the comparison is quite shocking.

He's been talking about extending the negotiated demilitarized zone of any peace deal with Ukraine/Nato to beyond the scope of the west's long distance weapons.

I think that tends to imply he's going to open up a new front...which would be along the lines of the original invasion attacking Kiev and Kharkov in the north..it's obvious that the Russians are building up numbers and equipment for it, probably with the idea of not reducing the current numbers at the current battle fronts.

I suspect it's a question of when and not if. The success or failure of that probably determines the strength of Ukraine's negotiating position.

However, I think the reality of drones means that the element of surprise on a battlefield is long gone. Also, as of yet there are poor counter measures for drones which mean that advances by either side come at great costs. So it'll be interesting to see how they intend to counter that....A numbers rush meets mines, suicide drones, drone directed accurate artillery, and well fortified positions as Ukraine found out last summer....So if they are going to do it they will need a different strategy....maybe they are relying on their air power. Then again, the Ukrainians will have US patriot systems hidden there somewhere (I think one of them downed that prisoner exchange plane).

So as always, whoever on whatever side dies, we continue to witness this tragedy unfold before us.

Edited by Stirlingsays (04 Feb 2024 8.55pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)