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CrazyBadger Flag Ware 14 Jun 19 9.53am Send a Private Message to CrazyBadger Add CrazyBadger as a friend

Originally posted by Master Coin

But the whole Southampton model you're quoting relied on finding underpriced players... They lost Alderweireld and replaced him with VVD for like £12m which was way below market rates. Mane etc also cost them peanuts. You can't argue for the Southampton model and then also argue that you can't find cheap hidden gems. The issue is that we've not adopted a policy of buy low sell high for our whole PL stay - we've instead bought 'proven' (or allegedly proven in Benteke's case!) players in their prime and then sucked up their best years such that there is no resale market for them.


On another note, this is the tip of the iceberg from Southampton. You can add Alderweireld, Bale and Shaw to that list. If they could have kept them all they'd have a CL standard side...

The flawed assumptions here are:-

1) Thinking Southampton had much to do with these players leaving. VVD, Lallana, Lovren and Wanyama all forced their way out. As did the Ox to a lesser extent. The best you can do is have their contracts sewn up so that when they do leave you can get big money for them and then hope that when you roll the dice and reinvest, the scouting department continues to get more 'hits' than 'misses'.

Southampton's thrived despite the sales for a good few years because they swapped out the likes of Alderweireld for VVD and Lallana for Mane. The recent struggles are due to the new crop of reinvestments not panning out coupled with some questionable managerial choices.

Its swings and roundabouts - without owners who can pump in vast cash (a la Wolves and Everton) you either buy high on proven commodities and then sell low (which is what we've done to date) or you buy low and sell high. Neither is 100% sustainable. The former runs out of cash to keep going at that pace (ie, what's happened to us). The latter suffers from what happened to Southampton in getting too many misses in one crop.

2) The second flaw is in assuming that you can keep them all due to monetary and wage bill constraints. There is no way Southampton's infrastructure could support paying all the above listed players on what they are now all currently earning.

Hrolf in particular and a couple others on here think that we can, in some way, do what Southampton couldn't and blindly keep all these theoretically pissed off players that want to move onto bigger things, while increasing the wage bill to Man City levels and with a comparatively tinpot ground and investors.

FWIW, I don't actually think AWB or Wilf are at the stage of forcing their way out (yet). Nonetheless, we will be obliged to sell them eventually and in AWBs case I reckon sell high whilst his fee is at its absolute zenith.

Seconded!

 


"It was a Team effort, I guess it took all players working together to lose this one"

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salop-eagle Flag 14 Jun 19 9.56am Send a Private Message to salop-eagle Add salop-eagle as a friend

Has anybody read anywhere a direct quote from AWB saying he wishes to go to United? Or is it all 'reported' based on some spurious guesswork by the Sun? The only interview I've seen he says he will be here next year!

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 14 Jun 19 10.23am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by CrazyBadger

Seconded!

It’s a Master post. Some will never ever agree though.

 


COYP

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Aray Flag South London 14 Jun 19 10.56am Send a Private Message to Aray Add Aray as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

It’s a Master post. Some will never ever agree though.

Also agree a top-notch post. But there is one point I question - selling AWB at his zenith. When is that then? Selling now to Manure after one complete season? I personally think he'll improve this year - if he does then we could sell him to Barcelona for far more what the mancs are offering.

 

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Master Coin Flag 14 Jun 19 11.04am Send a Private Message to Master Coin Add Master Coin as a friend

Originally posted by Aray

Also agree a top-notch post. But there is one point I question - selling AWB at his zenith. When is that then? Selling now to Manure after one complete season? I personally think he'll improve this year - if he does then we could sell him to Barcelona for far more what the mancs are offering.

Yeah agreed - that was probably hasty on my part. He could kick on even further and become even more valuable. I think that is higher risk though than him having a 'down' year and being worth less in 12 months time.

I think my point is that even the best RB in the world isn't going to fetch more than, say, £70m because of the nature of the position. Big money will be spend on attacking midfielders and centre forwards (in general).

So if we can get £60m that's a good deal because I see it as more likely we're offered £40m next year than £70m (albeit I'd say continuing to be offered ~£55m again is most likely). The TV deal isn't increasing so prices won't continue to balloon and he'll have one year less on his current deal.

 

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ChrisGC Flag Wantage 14 Jun 19 12.01pm

Originally posted by JohnB

I think our highest scoring striker in U23 is James Daly who spent much of last year on loan at Kingstonian's which tells you the kind of level they're at at the moment.

It's all opinions at the end of the day but I'd rather have Sturridge play half the games next year, due to injury, as a natural finisher than Sorloth all season.

Yeah, the Sorloth comment was misjudged, apologies.

 

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Spiderman Flag Horsham 14 Jun 19 12.06pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by salop-eagle

Has anybody read anywhere a direct quote from AWB saying he wishes to go to United? Or is it all 'reported' based on some spurious guesswork by the Sun? The only interview I've seen he says he will be here next year!

I was about to ask the same question. I haven't seen anywhere the AWB has said he wants to leave.

 

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Mwncisee Flag Middlesbrough 14 Jun 19 12.09pm Send a Private Message to Mwncisee Add Mwncisee as a friend

Originally posted by Master Coin

Yeah agreed - that was probably hasty on my part. He could kick on even further and become even more valuable. I think that is higher risk though than him having a 'down' year and being worth less in 12 months time.

I think my point is that even the best RB in the world isn't going to fetch more than, say, £70m because of the nature of the position. Big money will be spend on attacking midfielders and centre forwards (in general).

So if we can get £60m that's a good deal because I see it as more likely we're offered £40m next year than £70m (albeit I'd say continuing to be offered ~£55m again is most likely). The TV deal isn't increasing so prices won't continue to balloon and he'll have one year less on his current deal.

Agree with a lot of what you have said today. Natural `creep` in prices though will mean even if all other things are equal prices for players will creep up but just at a lower rate if other factors do not alter it.

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 14 Jun 19 12.31pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by Master Coin

But the whole Southampton model you're quoting relied on finding underpriced players... They lost Alderweireld and replaced him with VVD for like £12m which was way below market rates. Mane etc also cost them peanuts. You can't argue for the Southampton model and then also argue that you can't find cheap hidden gems. The issue is that we've not adopted a policy of buy low sell high for our whole PL stay - we've instead bought 'proven' (or allegedly proven in Benteke's case!) players in their prime and then sucked up their best years such that there is no resale market for them.


On another note, this is the tip of the iceberg from Southampton. You can add Alderweireld, Bale and Shaw to that list. If they could have kept them all they'd have a CL standard side...

The flawed assumptions here are:-

1) Thinking Southampton had much to do with these players leaving. VVD, Lallana, Lovren and Wanyama all forced their way out. As did the Ox to a lesser extent. The best you can do is have their contracts sewn up so that when they do leave you can get big money for them and then hope that when you roll the dice and reinvest, the scouting department continues to get more 'hits' than 'misses'.

Southampton's thrived despite the sales for a good few years because they swapped out the likes of Alderweireld for VVD and Lallana for Mane. The recent struggles are due to the new crop of reinvestments not panning out coupled with some questionable managerial choices.

Its swings and roundabouts - without owners who can pump in vast cash (a la Wolves and Everton) you either buy high on proven commodities and then sell low (which is what we've done to date) or you buy low and sell high. Neither is 100% sustainable. The former runs out of cash to keep going at that pace (ie, what's happened to us). The latter suffers from what happened to Southampton in getting too many misses in one crop.

2) The second flaw is in assuming that you can keep them all due to monetary and wage bill constraints. There is no way Southampton's infrastructure could support paying all the above listed players on what they are now all currently earning.

Hrolf in particular and a couple others on here think that we can, in some way, do what Southampton couldn't and blindly keep all these theoretically pissed off players that want to move onto bigger things, while increasing the wage bill to Man City levels and with a comparatively tinpot ground and investors.

FWIW, I don't actually think AWB or Wilf are at the stage of forcing their way out (yet). Nonetheless, we will be obliged to sell them eventually and in AWBs case I reckon sell high whilst his fee is at its absolute zenith.

What pissed off players?
You blindly believe media nonsense.

Southampton have regularly sold all their best players and that has taken them from high mid-table to barely avoiding relegation for the last two seasons. You like that model?

Selling your best talent will eventually see any team in the Championship where the potential loss of income will make our transfer profits look like peanuts.

 

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Mwncisee Flag Middlesbrough 14 Jun 19 12.41pm Send a Private Message to Mwncisee Add Mwncisee as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

What pissed off players?
You blindly believe media nonsense.

Southampton have regularly sold all their best players and that has taken them from high mid-table to barely avoiding relegation for the last two seasons. You like that model?

Selling your best talent will eventually see any team in the Championship where the potential loss of income will make our transfer profits look like peanuts.

Once again you are misquoting. You even highlight it yourself! He very clearly states `theoretically pissed off` and then you lambaste him for believing everything the media puts out!

No-one has said we should sell all our talent, and many have been very clear in stating that AWB is a player and in a position that we feel if he was sold would not hamstring our side completely. In fact, many have stated they see losing AWB very different to losing Wilf, the later being much harder boots to fill.

 

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Bangell Flag Oxford 14 Jun 19 1.08pm Send a Private Message to Bangell Add Bangell as a friend

I really don't think £50 million is enough.

 

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Tipp_Eagle Flag Tipperary 14 Jun 19 1.13pm

Originally posted by dollardays

It's getting hot in here!

so take off all your clothes , Boom

 


oh yeah ,fcuk off brighton.

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