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 Stirlingsays  22 May 23 5.32pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
It's almost at Italy levels. Soon it'll be pasta it.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 23 May 23 8.26am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Whether it happens now or sometime later, I take no pleasure in knowing we are all going to have face the music. Not that we are the ones at fault for the music selection. Edited by Stirlingsays (22 May 2023 3.49pm) This is something I suspect we have more agreement on than usual. Whilst the US must not default it must reverse its borrowing growth so it eventually removes the threat that it might. Ever-increasing debt is unsustainable. It makes a country vulnerable to changes of sentiment, political pressure and, most of all interest rate rises which load the future with heavy burdens. I thought China was the biggest holder of US debt but apparently they have sold 30% of their holding, which is still large, and are now second to Japan. The UK is third!
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Teddy Eagle  23 May 23 8.47am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
This is something I suspect we have more agreement on than usual. Whilst the US must not default it must reverse its borrowing growth so it eventually removes the threat that it might. Ever-increasing debt is unsustainable. It makes a country vulnerable to changes of sentiment, political pressure and, most of all interest rate rises which load the future with heavy burdens. I thought China was the biggest holder of US debt but apparently they have sold 30% of their holding, which is still large, and are now second to Japan. The UK is third! Ten years ago Belgium was third, they're now fourth, because of a clearing house who were buying up debt, it's thought, on behalf of Russian investors.
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| Stirlingsays 24 May 23 4.58am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
This is something I suspect we have more agreement on than usual. Whilst the US must not default it must reverse its borrowing growth so it eventually removes the threat that it might. Ever-increasing debt is unsustainable. It makes a country vulnerable to changes of sentiment, political pressure and, most of all interest rate rises which load the future with heavy burdens. I thought China was the biggest holder of US debt but apparently they have sold 30% of their holding, which is still large, and are now second to Japan. The UK is third! I'm not really seeing how the US reverses borrowing growth.....it's corporate debt as well. I don't think the US defaults as this is a game that always happens now when the houses are held separately.....it could do but something will probably get agreed last minute....which apparently is close. The analysis I've heard on it....which you don't get in normie land of course is that we have a few years yet....but are unlikely to get to the end of the decade before the brown gooey stuff hits the fan....making 2008 look like a bit of a laugh. Edited by Stirlingsays (24 May 2023 5.00am)
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Teddy Eagle 24 May 23 5.16am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
I'm not really seeing how the US reverses borrowing growth.....it's corporate debt as well. I don't think the US defaults as this is a game that always happens now when the houses are held separately.....it could do but something will probably get agreed last minute....which apparently is close. The analysis I've heard on it....which you don't get in normie land of course is that we have a few years yet....but are unlikely to get to the end of the decade before the brown gooey stuff hits the fan....making 2008 look like a bit of a laugh. Edited by Stirlingsays (24 May 2023 5.00am) It's estimated that in ten years US debt will be twice the size of their economy.
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| Stirlingsays 24 May 23 5.23am |
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Originally posted by Teddy Eagle
It's estimated that in ten years US debt will be twice the size of their economy. Yep, I'm not sure what the ratio is when it becomes unsustainable but I imagine that confidence will go before we reach it.....once everyone starts calling the debts in the the final vital bulkhead of that Titanic fills. I just hope we are all doing alright when she blows.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 24 May 23 8.36am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Yep, I'm not sure what the ratio is when it becomes unsustainable but I imagine that confidence will go before we reach it.....once everyone starts calling the debts in the the final vital bulkhead of that Titanic fills. I just hope we are all doing alright when she blows. The difference is though that the iceberg can clearly be seen and a course steered to avoid it, so long as we have a captain not determined to break the record on his first voyage. Whether the USA, and as a result the rest of the world, can avoid this is an open question. How we should prepare, both individually and as a country, one that needs to be actively considered. For me rejoining the EU as part of those preparations seems a no brainer.
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| Teddy Eagle 24 May 23 10.55am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
The difference is though that the iceberg can clearly be seen and a course steered to avoid it, so long as we have a captain not determined to break the record on his first voyage. Whether the USA, and as a result the rest of the world, can avoid this is an open question. How we should prepare, both individually and as a country, one that needs to be actively considered. For me rejoining the EU as part of those preparations seems a no brainer. The figure quoted for US debt in 10 years is 50 trillion. The signs are that a lot of this debt is being bought by Russia so the world's economy is likely to be in their hands.
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 24 May 23 3.53pm |
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Originally posted by Teddy Eagle
The figure quoted for US debt in 10 years is 50 trillion. The signs are that a lot of this debt is being bought by Russia so the world's economy is likely to be in their hands. Maybe that will be the next sanction. Threaten to default only on debt held by Russia. Forcing them to sell at a loss.
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| Teddy Eagle 24 May 23 4.19pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Maybe that will be the next sanction. Threaten to default only on debt held by Russia. Forcing them to sell at a loss. Difficult if they're buying via clearing houses in different countries. If they could do that to Russia what's to stop them doing the same to us with our share of the debt?
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 24 May 23 11.44pm |
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Originally posted by Teddy Eagle
Difficult if they're buying via clearing houses in different countries. If they could do that to Russia what's to stop them doing the same to us with our share of the debt? This isn’t an area I know much about but if the USA said that they were defaulting only on debt held at that moment by Russia, assuming there is always a precise record of who holds what, and says those holdings are now discounted to say 75% of their face value, then what could they do that they haven’t already done? The obvious excluded! They could justify the action as further sanctions on Russia whilst easing their debt problem. There’s probably an enormous flaw that I haven’t seen though!
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| Stirlingsays 25 May 23 12.08am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
The difference is though that the iceberg can clearly be seen and a course steered to avoid it, so long as we have a captain not determined to break the record on his first voyage. Whether the USA, and as a result the rest of the world, can avoid this is an open question. How we should prepare, both individually and as a country, one that needs to be actively considered. For me rejoining the EU as part of those preparations seems a no brainer. Nope, rejoining the EU would hit us harder financially in a world collapse. Firstly because we would be a net contributor and secondly because our ability to respond would be fixed within their rules. I agree though that everyone needs to prepare as best they can.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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