I think we can say that the effects of Russia's winter mobilisation can now be reflected on. Despite the massive propaganda (much of it disappointingly emotive from an objective standpoint) pumped out by governmental and security services an inspection of what is happening on the ground shows that Russia have made gains in the Donbas region and made small gains in the north since their withdraw from the city of Kherson. As I write they hold roughly 70 percent of the city of Bakhmut, which has seen the most fighting and use of resources by both sides this winter.

Those gains are less than I personally expected from the numbers involved by it has to be seen within the context of massive spending and military supplies by NATO.

The Ukrainians are rumoured to be on the verge of a spring offensive, however this has been paid for almost exclusively by Nato and uses a large amount of their military equipment and ammo. It remains to be seen if Nato (which really is the Americans) will be willing to just continue to fund offensives rather than negotiations after this one unless it results in significant success. The republicans now control budgets and significant opposition to a long war is building.

Essentially the outcome of this war probably comes down to the same metric that ultimately decides all large scale wars.....exhaustion. Both in the economic and human sense.....How many people and how much high level equipment will be given away (it's never going to be paid back and some will end up with gangs/terrorists) and brought to bear on the war.

I think we recently saw with Macron's visit to China (they won't talk to Biden) where the real consequences from this war have led. I said early on that it was an incompetent disaster to join Russia and China together. Unfortunately for all of us in the west that's the result now and it's bad for all of us going forward. Considering that China are eyeing Taiwan (something else I've been correct on) it's definitely not in their interest to have a defeated Russia and stronger west......the nips aren't stupid...but our policy certainly has been.

I have my fingers firmly crossed that escalation doesn't happen beyond what we have already seen.....which I regard as far far too much already.

I regard it all as incompetent madness but (while I abhor the waste of life..many of whom are that generation's best people) I feel this year's military results will certainly play a large role in determining the end game.

I know we won't get it now but I feel the best outcome for Ukraine was last March's negotiated positions. But hey, apparently the same kind of people who thought the charge of the light brigade was a good idea seem to be the same type making decisions today.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Apr 2023 4.17am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

The leaked defence intelligence papers suggest Ukraine can make modest gains at most in the current situation. Starting to seem like trench warfare in f***ed up places that no one really cares about. Every Ukrainian I've met in Ireland is staying here, so I guess they don't care too much either. Loads of them are young guys which seems a little strange to me.

Red and Blue Army!

Lucky my Grandparents didn't have that attitude. Then again no one was taking British refugees except for some women and children. Not many of them either, and not many countries.
I'm not asking these people to fight. If they don't want to die for their country, or risk dying or getting injured then I can understand that. Who does? Nevertheless it's not exactly the Ukraine the brave message we're getting from the media. These people are saying f*** you to Zelensky, not the Russians. There is no reason at all for them to be staying whatsoever. Except for their own preferences and personal economic reasons. I support Ukraine over Russia but surely it has to have the support of its own people first? Otherwise, it's all a bit pointless.
My mum was an evacuee from London. My Gran worked as a servant in Co Durham to look after her and her sister.

Red and Blue Army!

perhaps Russia are there to liberate ukrainian citizens....wouldnt be so far fetched.

Ukraine has fallen under the radar.
Much Like Sudan, Palestine, Yemen, NI and all those 'tricky' situations that don't make for good reading.

The only way out is by negotiation.

I disengage, I turn the page.

On holiday I met a lovely kind lady she and her husband have put up a Ukrainian woman and her teenage daughter since the scheme started.

She did wonder though why they go back on holiday to the Ukraine.

I refrained from making any suggestions as I thought this might not be helpful.

Edited by Badger11 (18 Apr 2023 2.47pm)

One more point