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Stirlingsays Flag 12 Feb 21 10.23am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by DanH

No, all the EU is struggling at the moment as a lot of countries are still struggling with pandemic.

Australasian nations (China included) that were a lot stricter with their controls and have come out the other side a lot quicker are rebounding a lot quicker. The EU (and Britain) will have a lot of catching up to do.

You trust China's figures?

On what past reliable metric do you base this upon?

Personally I don't trust the figures of authoritarian regimes on anything. Even the figures of western countries are gathered using different criteria and aren't easy to correlate.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Spiderman Flag Horsham 12 Feb 21 11.09am Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

You trust China's figures?

On what past reliable metric do you base this upon?

Personally I don't trust the figures of authoritarian regimes on anything. Even the figures of western countries are gathered using different criteria and aren't easy to correlate.

Anyone who trusts the figures coming out of China or under any information coming from there are extremely naive


[Link]

Edited by Spiderman (12 Feb 2021 11.17am)

 

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The Dolphin Flag 12 Feb 21 11.22am Send a Private Message to The Dolphin Add The Dolphin as a friend

Originally posted by DanH

What has it gained exactly? Still waiting for these gains to become clear.

Do you honestly think that everything becomes clear in 6 weeks?
This decision will play out - positively I think and hope - over a much longer period.

 

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The Dolphin Flag 12 Feb 21 11.30am Send a Private Message to The Dolphin Add The Dolphin as a friend

China are just getting worse if it were actually possible?
Something has to be done about them but without Trump and the USA it won't. Biden is merely a puppet and his backers love a bit of Communism - oops sorry - Socialism!

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Feb 21 12.48pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Your lens appears purely financial in this matter.

If the EU question were one of pure finances....while there is an theoretical argument to compete against the EU as a European form of 'Singapore' variant....in a financial sense I would have never have voted for it.

The real leave argument was a social, immigration and identarian one. For those that dislike those concepts I understand how Brexit will always be uncomfortable.

I also appreciate that how the government have chosen to interpret the Brexit vote is deliberately different from the leave vote's general intent.

No one voted leave to increase immigration from outside Europe. In several senses this is directly against the best interests of the working class, who were by far the largest element of the leave vote. However, that's the policy Johnson has decided to pursue.....as the old saying goes, 'the best way to control the opposition is to lead it'.

Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Feb 2021 1.00am)

Mainly financial, yes, seeing as the entire system of governance these days is effectively run and controlled by the financial system, and carries the most socio-economic impact. Has been since de-regulation and now, more than at any other point in history. The things you refer to are directly influenced by the financials. They're not independent of them. An on a weighting basis, objectively, finance and economy is by far the biggest fish.

For example, if Brexit results in the short to medium term decimation of the music industry and ecommerce/export reliant sector of the retail industry, that means immediate and massive economic harm, job losses, the potential destruction or diminishment of thousands of UK businesses.

I don't need to spell out why this makes the financial component of making a decision over Brexit far more important than any other aspect.

If you're looking at it from the stance of a belief system or ideology, then sure, financial might be less important to you. But if you look at it objectively, the financial and economic impacts are the most relevant. Even more so as the apparent bodging of a deal is becoming more and more problematic.

Reducing immigration and controlling borders properly (sometimething I agree with, BTW) becomes kind of irrelevant if the financials are simply sidelined and ignored, and not treated as the main issue.

Also, while I get the 'working class' argument, do those jobs actually contribute the most to the economy anymore? Other than positive employment to prevent social unrest? I'd assume that finance, retail and the service industry etc. do way more, and as such are treated as more important. Now, socially and ethically that's questionable – but, finance now rules the world and holds the real power, so what do you expect?

Ultimately being completely frank low level, low skilled employment is most likely going to severely reduce and disappear over time anyway, so to me complaining about low income people being left behind from an employment point of view is a red herring.

 


Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Feb 21 12.54pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

Who wants us to be important on a global playing field? I constantly hear from the Remoaner side how Brexit was really a kind of nostalgia for Empire and yet not one single Leaver I have ever spoken to has mentioned that as a factor.

The reality is that many of us see Empire as an utter curse, the consequences of it playing out in the negative.

If anything I would have thought those on Remain/Left side of things would have been the ones cheering it on given how it has helped with our national diversity now? Surely a positive from your point of view? Right?

Or do you wish we never had been a colonial power? Just remained this homogenous, wind and rainswept little island off the coast of Europe?


I can guarantee you that most Leave voters would happily settle for the UK with no colonial past or present-day legacy whatsoever.

Edited by Matov (12 Feb 2021 8.21am)

Do you really mean that? I thought the whole point of Brexit was to be able to assert ourselves better on the world stage...

If you're not important, you have no influence. If you have no influence, you become irrelevant in so many areas – economic, scientific, political...

You're no longer able to fully protect your own interests as no one cares what you have to say or do, so you have to start giving in to other countries demands on things like trade deals, y'know, major economic agreements that directly influence the prosperity of businesses and citizens.

In a globalised world that's a bit of a problem.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (12 Feb 2021 12.54pm)

 


Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards SW19 CPFC Flag Addiscombe West 12 Feb 21 12.58pm Send a Private Message to SW19 CPFC Add SW19 CPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

You trust China's figures?

On what past reliable metric do you base this upon?

Personally I don't trust the figures of authoritarian regimes on anything. Even the figures of western countries are gathered using different criteria and aren't easy to correlate.

You're right about dodgy figures, but in fairness the point is valid – Australia was the other example and they're doing well. I'd be surprised if China were doing badly – they're about as authoritarian as it gets when they need to force the population to do something. I highly doubt that they've actually been really lax.

Obvious caveat on Australia tho – they're not an international exchange point like us. So it was always going to be hard to simply close borders and sit tight – the outcome of that is probably worse than where we are now.

 


Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons.

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Henry of Peckham Flag Eton Mess 12 Feb 21 1.20pm Send a Private Message to Henry of Peckham Add Henry of Peckham as a friend

Originally posted by The Dolphin

China are just getting worse if it were actually possible?
Something has to be done about them but without Trump and the USA it won't. Biden is merely a puppet and his backers love a bit of Communism - oops sorry - Socialism!

Bellend ... sorry I mean Biden, currently has so much to deal with at home I doubt he'll focus much on international issues for the time being. The Chinese and Putin are amongst those likely to benefit from his distractions.

 


Denial is not just a river in Egypt

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steeleye20 Flag Croydon 12 Feb 21 2.20pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Michel Barnier said it was clear there would be a period of adaptation, but long term it would not be business as usual.

“Brexit means Brexit,” he said, repeating a mantra coined by former British Prime Minister Theresa May.

Nice one, or as the French say 'Touchez'.....

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 12 Feb 21 2.49pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

Mainly financial, yes, seeing as the entire system of governance these days is effectively run and controlled by the financial system, and carries the most socio-economic impact. Has been since de-regulation and now, more than at any other point in history. The things you refer to are directly influenced by the financials. They're not independent of them. An on a weighting basis, objectively, finance and economy is by far the biggest fish.

For example, if Brexit results in the short to medium term decimation of the music industry and ecommerce/export reliant sector of the retail industry, that means immediate and massive economic harm, job losses, the potential destruction or diminishment of thousands of UK businesses.

I don't need to spell out why this makes the financial component of making a decision over Brexit far more important than any other aspect.

If you're looking at it from the stance of a belief system or ideology, then sure, financial might be less important to you. But if you look at it objectively, the financial and economic impacts are the most relevant. Even more so as the apparent bodging of a deal is becoming more and more problematic.

Reducing immigration and controlling borders properly (sometimething I agree with, BTW) becomes kind of irrelevant if the financials are simply sidelined and ignored, and not treated as the main issue.

Also, while I get the 'working class' argument, do those jobs actually contribute the most to the economy anymore? Other than positive employment to prevent social unrest? I'd assume that finance, retail and the service industry etc. do way more, and as such are treated as more important. Now, socially and ethically that's questionable – but, finance now rules the world and holds the real power, so what do you expect?

Ultimately being completely frank low level, low skilled employment is most likely going to severely reduce and disappear over time anyway, so to me complaining about low income people being left behind from an employment point of view is a red herring.


You make plenty of good points, which economically I think have validity, though perhaps we differ on the extent that it matters.....I'm also negative about the economy this decade but I regard that as much more to do with the economically kicked can running out of road than I do with the EU question.

Ever since, 'ever closer union' towards an EU superstate, the British were always traditionally going to have large numbers who were ill at ease.

I can imagine if 'remain' had won in 2016. The leavers would have been ignored and dismissed as irrelevant and the UK regarded as 'positive' towards the EU. Where we are now is a more honest reflection of the UK, where we are 'out', but also still 'in' in many regards regarding cooperation and direction....unless the EU decides to fight us economically.

It's in the British 'dna' to regard a balance of power on the continent as more in its interests than one that is essentially 'German' controlled.....though I'm not suggesting that the Germans are a military threat now...not for at least another generation (and especially if their birth rates and immigration effectively destroy German dna).

I concur on automation, though at what stage the technology starts to make a significant effect is perhaps further down the decade than now.

Even if we completely ignore the looming debt crisis there is a large fundamental problem with automation. As in there will probably be a long and difficult transition period before it can truly be a replacement for many many practical tasks. However, that won't stop employers rushing it and dispensing with employees. Again....even ignoring the debt crisis I estimate that there will be a troubled period which UBI isn't realistic as a replacement for jobs and a lot of people will suffer as a consequence.....similar to the transition to the industrial age.

Edited by Stirlingsays (12 Feb 2021 2.54pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Matov Flag 12 Feb 21 5.02pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

Michel Barnier said it was clear there would be a period of adaptation, but long term it would not be business as usual.

“Brexit means Brexit,” he said, repeating a mantra coined by former British Prime Minister Theresa May.

Nice one, or as the French say 'Touchez'.....


I fully agree with Barnier. The British need to up their game in terms of matching the EU spite. Should have been fully anticipated in advance and that reflected in the negotiating stance.

We need to move to an effective full-on trade war with the EU asap. Assume that the deal is dead in the water. It has not been ratified by the EU so we still have an out and we need to accept that and move on.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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cryrst Flag The garden of England 12 Feb 21 5.32pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by DanH

Were. Shrank nearly 10% in 2020. And now we need to try and recover that in an environment outside our biggest trading bloc.

The whole world apart from china has shrunken economies. Whatever % may differ but it's a fact and a prorata situation.

 

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