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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Lyons550  Shirley 13 Jul 16 12.24pm |
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Originally posted by nickgusset
So why didn't they say there was no plan before the referendum? The only people that could and DID plan was the BoE...hence the banking system being more than robust enough to cope with the ripples the outcome has and will continue to cause. The Tier 1 capital raised by our banks was in fact raised to deal with far worse scenarios then created by Brexit...but then Brexit isn't an economic crisis...unlike 2008 and as such it'll all settle down once we know the details of the withdrawal under Article 50.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 13 Jul 16 12.28pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
The only people that could and DID plan was the BoE...hence the banking system being more than robust enough to cope with the ripples the outcome has and will continue to cause. The Tier 1 capital raised by our banks was in fact raised to deal with far worse scenarios then created by Brexit...but then Brexit isn't an economic crisis...unlike 2008 and as such it'll all settle down once we know the details of the withdrawal under Article 50. Of course settle down, doesn't necessarily mean in a positive way to some people. Although it'll be stable, doesn't mean it will be what people want. Just what it is. I don't expect the UK to economically be as strong as it was out of the EU, that seems a bit absurd, given the size and power of the EU trading block. But surrendering some of our economic power, to obtain greater power to control over our economic future, even if its inferior, seems like a fair exchange.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 13 Jul 16 12.29pm |
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Originally posted by nickgusset
I'd imagine we'd get a deal worse than ttip if we want to trade more with the states. Difference is, we'd have the option of not accepting that deal, and taking the economic hit.
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| Mapletree Croydon 13 Jul 16 12.34pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Of course settle down, doesn't necessarily mean in a positive way to some people. Although it'll be stable, doesn't mean it will be what people want. Just what it is. I don't expect the UK to economically be as strong as it was out of the EU, that seems a bit absurd, given the size and power of the EU trading block. But surrendering some of our economic power, to obtain greater power to control over our economic future, even if its inferior, seems like a fair exchange. It's good to see you have the depth of pockets to take the hit then Jamie.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 13 Jul 16 1.17pm |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
It's good to see you have the depth of pockets to take the hit then Jamie. Not really, I just don't equate right with fiscal values. I wouldn't vote for something just because it made me better or worse off.
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| crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 13 Jul 16 1.19pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
The only people that could and DID plan was the BoE...hence the banking system being more than robust enough to cope with the ripples the outcome has and will continue to cause. The Tier 1 capital raised by our banks was in fact raised to deal with far worse scenarios then created by Brexit...but then Brexit isn't an economic crisis...unlike 2008 and as such it'll all settle down once we know the details of the withdrawal under Article 50. The problem is the uncertainty before the details of the withdrawal and the terms of the trade deals which will be struck after the two year period following Article 50. This could well take 5 years or more to conclude, by which time the economy may have grown by 5-10% less than if exit hadn't happened (see lowered growth forecasts from ratings agencies). As such, it will become an economic crisis, and we'll all be financially worse off, only by how much is in dispute
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 13 Jul 16 1.30pm |
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Who'd have thought that tying the economy to a system based on 'gut feeling insticts' of wealth junkies, could possibly be a problem...
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| Lyons550 Shirley 13 Jul 16 1.44pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Of course settle down, doesn't necessarily mean in a positive way to some people. Although it'll be stable, doesn't mean it will be what people want. Just what it is. I don't expect the UK to economically be as strong as it was out of the EU, that seems a bit absurd, given the size and power of the EU trading block. But surrendering some of our economic power, to obtain greater power to control over our economic future, even if its inferior, seems like a fair exchange. Others would disagree suggesting the Size and Power of the EU trading block has just diminished through our withdrawal....and yet the rest of the world has just come that much closer as a result of us removing the EU shackles....swings and roundabouts...just like life...we just need to all get on with it
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| Lyons550 Shirley 13 Jul 16 1.51pm |
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Originally posted by crystal balls
The problem is the uncertainty before the details of the withdrawal and the terms of the trade deals which will be struck after the two year period following Article 50. This could well take 5 years or more to conclude, by which time the economy may have grown by 5-10% less than if exit hadn't happened (see lowered growth forecasts from ratings agencies). As such, it will become an economic crisis, and we'll all be financially worse off, only by how much is in dispute Hyperbole....just when does a cyclical downturn (as always happens whatever the reason) become a crisis??? Some people are never happier then having their heads in their hands lurching from one 'crisis' to another...always looking back over their shoulders...an economic 'crisis' would be if unemployment rose to the level of the 70's; people couldn't afford to put food on the table and kids weren't able to go to school and get an education due to lack of funding* It seems a lot of peoples definition of 'crisis' revolves around their ability to retain phones, cars and social media. It's simply 'change' that people don't like ....not the effects of change which most if not all of us can mitigate provided you 'accept' change for what it is...an opportunity to re-focus and something to embrace. *clearly there'll be the usual trite comment about this already happening...but you know exactly that I mean on a vast scale as opposed to current levels
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 14 Jul 16 3.28pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
Others would disagree suggesting the Size and Power of the EU trading block has just diminished through our withdrawal....and yet the rest of the world has just come that much closer as a result of us removing the EU shackles....swings and roundabouts...just like life...we just need to all get on with it Yeah, but I generally think people put too much stock in the idea that they can have something for nothing, and the idea that there are no true consequences. Its the kind of pie in the sky b*lls*** that's peddled by popularist's - of course there is a chance that could be the case, but realistically, I think its pretty unlikely. The UK's capacity to negotiate trade would I'd imagine be weaker outside of the EU, than as part of it, simply because it has to negotiate from a smaller point of leverage. Obviously, we can still trade and will still trade, and probably on decent enough terms, but we won't be able to leverage the influence of our trade partners to our favour, and we will be in competition with those ex-partners now. Usually when there are more suppliers towards a demand, both suppliers lose out.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 14 Jul 16 3.32pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
Hyperbole....just when does a cyclical downturn (as always happens whatever the reason) become a crisis??? Some people are never happier then having their heads in their hands lurching from one 'crisis' to another...always looking back over their shoulders...an economic 'crisis' would be if unemployment rose to the level of the 70's; people couldn't afford to put food on the table and kids weren't able to go to school and get an education due to lack of funding* It seems a lot of peoples definition of 'crisis' revolves around their ability to retain phones, cars and social media. It's simply 'change' that people don't like ....not the effects of change which most if not all of us can mitigate provided you 'accept' change for what it is...an opportunity to re-focus and something to embrace.
Crisis come and crisis go, every five or ten years or so the UK lurches into a crisis, and then people pay little attention to recovery, until the next crisis comes along. A crisis is interesting, exciting. Brexit, whether you like it or not, has at least been far more interesting than a remain vote ever would have been. The sky hasn't fallen, the world hasn't ended and for the most part, we'll all live through it, and come out the other side, anticipating the next crisis. Change is always more 'fun' than stability.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 15 Jul 16 10.45am |
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Can anyone clarify exactly when Britain can start negotiating trade deals? I know that the EU are unhappy that there's hints we're about to start talking to countries outside the EU. I think we should, and I think we will, ignore them and carry on. But with regard to the EU... Do all negotiations regarding future trading agreements and relationships with the EU and/or individual countries have to start after leaving and not during article 50? This is what I've read on a pro-EU blog. I thought this wasn't so. Aren't we allowed to negotiate as soon as article 50 is invoked but some bigger countries are a bit impatient and want to talk asap? With regards to the legal position? When this position of negotiations beginning immediately after invoking article 50 was put forward by an EU spokeswoman it was ridiculed as not being allowed by EU constitution lawyers until the UK has actually left. Is this true in a legal sense? If it is, will it be ignored by all 27 and the UK?
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