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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.07pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You really are living in a delusion created by your own arrogance. Firstly the idea of pushing the opinions of a significant part of the population "into the long grass" really does display your contempt for others who don't share your blinkered view. Don't hold your breath. Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget. "Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy". Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer. Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07. Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start.
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Hrolf The Ganger 11 Jul 16 1.13pm | |
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Originally posted by crystal balls
Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget. "Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy". Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer. Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07. Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start. If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
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Mapletree Croydon 11 Jul 16 1.16pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain. Blimey, I can agree with you on something. The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations.
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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.17pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain. Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't.
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Hrolf The Ganger 11 Jul 16 1.21pm | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
Blimey, I can agree with you on something. The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations. Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have.
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Hrolf The Ganger 11 Jul 16 1.29pm | |
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Originally posted by crystal balls
Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't. We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off.
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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 11 Jul 16 1.42pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have. Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn. UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this. I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!" This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.
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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.54pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off. By your own definition, your belief in the long term benefit is nothing other than a "guess" as well! My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch. BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more.
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JohnyBoy 11 Jul 16 2.00pm | |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn. UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this. I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!" This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them. A very wise post Maple, there is no point in the 'i told you so' debate, we must just get on and do our best. But for those who say we should say nothing and clap along to the fiddles playing when Rome is burning...'this is how democracy works', leave won the referendum so expect some angry and vociferous opposition because every negative impact on jobs, distressed households, police numbers, nhs etc etc that is genuinely due to the Brexit vote should be accountable to those who made the decision....and if they dont like being blamed, well thats really just tough sh!t, but hopefully we will all learn a painful but valuable lesson
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Hrolf The Ganger 11 Jul 16 2.04pm | |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn. UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this. I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!" This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them. What experience? It has never happened before. You simply want to dismiss the concerns of the majority of the population because of your own arrogance. That is exactly the attitude that caused Brexit in the first place. You my dear boy, have learned nothing from that. Now I'm already bored with Remainers and their self righteous protestations. The sooner you get with the new program and stop whining, the better off we will all be.
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Hrolf The Ganger 11 Jul 16 2.12pm | |
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Originally posted by crystal balls
My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch. BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more. If economics is the only consideration. What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way. Time to move on.
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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 2.29pm | |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
If economics is the only consideration. What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way. Time to move on. Hardly self-righteousness though, is it? No-one seems to be claiming any superiority, simply pointing out that some of the predicted outcomes are coming to pass, and that leaving is not the panacea that some exit-ers seemed to believe.
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