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crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.07pm Send a Private Message to crystal balls Add crystal balls as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

You really are living in a delusion created by your own arrogance.

Firstly the idea of pushing the opinions of a significant part of the population "into the long grass" really does display your contempt for others who don't share your blinkered view.
You still can't see that the projections of disaster post Brexit put forward by the Remain campaign were just that. There is and always was no certainty to any of them.
I suspect that some people like yourself actually want the country to go down the pan just so You can say I told you so.

Don't hold your breath.

Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget.

"Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy".

Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer.

Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07.

Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start.

 


I used to be immortal

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.13pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by crystal balls

Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget.

"Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy".

Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer.

Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07.

Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start.

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

 

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Mapletree Flag Croydon 11 Jul 16 1.16pm Send a Private Message to Mapletree Add Mapletree as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

Blimey, I can agree with you on something.

The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations.

 

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crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.17pm Send a Private Message to crystal balls Add crystal balls as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't.

 


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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.21pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by Mapletree

Blimey, I can agree with you on something.

The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations.

Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have.

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.29pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by crystal balls

Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't.

We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off.
With regard to specific financial projections. There has never been a time when one could accurately predict the future since there are many factors that could influence conditions. To claim with certainty that will be worse off long term is little better than a guess.
When we come to terms with Brexit and adapt to the new situation, we will be better equipped to see a little further ahead.

 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 11 Jul 16 1.42pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have.

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.54pm Send a Private Message to crystal balls Add crystal balls as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off.
With regard to specific financial projections. There has never been a time when one could accurately predict the future since there are many factors that could influence conditions. To claim with certainty that will be worse off long term is little better than a guess.
When we come to terms with Brexit and adapt to the new situation, we will be better equipped to see a little further ahead.

By your own definition, your belief in the long term benefit is nothing other than a "guess" as well!

My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch.

BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more.

 


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JohnyBoy Flag 11 Jul 16 2.00pm Send a Private Message to JohnyBoy Add JohnyBoy as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

A very wise post Maple, there is no point in the 'i told you so' debate, we must just get on and do our best. But for those who say we should say nothing and clap along to the fiddles playing when Rome is burning...'this is how democracy works', leave won the referendum so expect some angry and vociferous opposition because every negative impact on jobs, distressed households, police numbers, nhs etc etc that is genuinely due to the Brexit vote should be accountable to those who made the decision....and if they dont like being blamed, well thats really just tough sh!t, but hopefully we will all learn a painful but valuable lesson

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 2.04pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

What experience? It has never happened before.

You simply want to dismiss the concerns of the majority of the population because of your own arrogance. That is exactly the attitude that caused Brexit in the first place. You my dear boy, have learned nothing from that.

Now I'm already bored with Remainers and their self righteous protestations. The sooner you get with the new program and stop whining, the better off we will all be.

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 2.12pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Originally posted by crystal balls


By your own definition, your belief in the long term benefit is nothing other than a "guess" as well!

My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch.

BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more.

If economics is the only consideration.

What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way.
Right now all the self righteousness seems to be coming, prematurely, from the Remain camp.

Time to move on.

 

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crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 2.29pm Send a Private Message to crystal balls Add crystal balls as a friend

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If economics is the only consideration.

What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way.
Right now all the self righteousness seems to be coming, prematurely, from the Remain camp.

Time to move on.

Hardly self-righteousness though, is it? No-one seems to be claiming any superiority, simply pointing out that some of the predicted outcomes are coming to pass, and that leaving is not the panacea that some exit-ers seemed to believe.

 


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