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Spiderman Flag Horsham 11 May 20 7.19pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

The suggestion that "half the world’s workforce having no income" is obviously horrifying but is it actually true? 50% seems like a figure pulled out of the air to me. With so much unknown about the virus right now, and indeed how long a vaccine will take to be available, if ever, then of course we need to balance the risks and remain flexible in our approach. Which will vary from country to country dependent on their circumstances.

The fact that the virus is not killing as many as some others is a complete red herring. The real question is how many would it kill if it were to be ignored?

For the moment I am content that the approach we are taking is the right one and that the promise of the rapid availability of a vaccine will mitigate the economic hit, with a fast subsequent recovery. I don't buy into the economic doom and gloom merchants senario. Life may change. It always has.

In some places, as I know from personal experience, having more than 50% of the working age people not working can cause deprivation but it doesn't cause starvation. The land still gets worked and people are fed. They might not be able to buy the latest gadgets though. Big deal!

If my offspring did not have gadgets I would have had no contact with them for over 6 weeks, that is a big deal for me. If you can’t get in the real world it may be better not to post as people in similar position to me are getting a bit tetchy

 

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BlueJay Flag UK 11 May 20 8.02pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

The suggestion that "half the world’s workforce having no income" is obviously horrifying but is it actually true? 50% seems like a figure pulled out of the air to me. With so much unknown about the virus right now, and indeed how long a vaccine will take to be available, if ever, then of course we need to balance the risks and remain flexible in our approach. Which will vary from country to country dependent on their circumstances.

The fact that the virus is not killing as many as some others is a complete red herring. The real question is how many would it kill if it were to be ignored?

For the moment I am content that the approach we are taking is the right one and that the promise of the rapid availability of a vaccine will mitigate the economic hit, with a fast subsequent recovery. I don't buy into the economic doom and gloom merchants senario. Life may change. It always has.

In some places, as I know from personal experience, having more than 50% of the working age people not working can cause deprivation but it doesn't cause starvation. The land still gets worked and people are fed. They might not be able to buy the latest gadgets though. Big deal!

I don't disagree with the current trajectory of slowly opening up. A fine balance has to be achieved, but logically business do need to be able to open in some capacity in the coming weeks and months, even restaurants and pubs, but with as many precautions in place to slow the r0 rate.

As much as I'm hopeful of better treatments and a vaccine, there is no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine, or if there is, it may come about when we're past the worst of this anyway. So we can't just wait for the unknowable. Mask wearing, hand washing, and well thought out policies to protect the elderly and most vulnerable are the way to go.

 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 11 May 20 9.57pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

If my offspring did not have gadgets I would have had no contact with them for over 6 weeks, that is a big deal for me. If you can’t get in the real world it may be better not to post as people in similar position to me are getting a bit tetchy

I don't disagree that social media has been a godsend these past weeks in so many ways.

My comment though was not about us or anyone in the developed world. It was in the context of the suggestion that 50% of the world's work force could be out of work. I was reflecting that many of the poorest people might not work but they still can eat, and that's what's really important. Not all, of course, but some people get by on very little indeed and seem to be able to stay happy too.

Even for us the latest gadget isn't really necessary. Some want to update as soon as the latest model is released but that might well change in an economic downturn.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 11 May 20 10.08pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by BlueJay

I don't disagree with the current trajectory of slowly opening up. A fine balance has to be achieved, but logically business do need to be able to open in some capacity in the coming weeks and months, even restaurants and pubs, but with as many precautions in place to slow the r0 rate.

As much as I'm hopeful of better treatments and a vaccine, there is no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine, or if there is, it may come about when we're past the worst of this anyway. So we can't just wait for the unknowable. Mask wearing, hand washing, and well thought out policies to protect the elderly and most vulnerable are the way to go.

Don't disagree with any of that as it's perfectly compatible with what I suggested.

We will need to review and adapt as our knowledge grows. If indeed we don't find a vaccine then everything will need to be rethought because we cannot just stay as we are for ever. There is though a right time to do that and a wrong time. Now is not the right time because we stand a good chance of finding the vaccine. Getting everyone to use it though will become the next big problem, especially in the USA.

Being "past the worst" is a bit of a misnomer because we would only be able to remain at that point by staying under restrictions. A vaccine would enable the brakes to be fully released and the throttle depressed in sports mode.

It's all about managing the risk effectively.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Spiderman Flag Horsham 12 May 20 12.20pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Heard a debate this morning about how countries have been counting the number of deaths from Covid19. Apparently Germany do not count anyone who also had other underlying health issues and Italy do not count deaths in care homes. Just goes to show how figured can be skewed


 

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Badger11 Flag Beckenham 12 May 20 12.47pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

Heard a debate this morning about how countries have been counting the number of deaths from Covid19. Apparently Germany do not count anyone who also had other underlying health issues and Italy do not count deaths in care homes. Just goes to show how figured can be skewed


Italy don't count deaths outside of hospital, when their NHS was overwhelmed thousands died at home due to lack of hospital beds.

As most deaths have an underlying cause it would explain why the German count is so low.

 


One more point

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 12 May 20 1.14pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Trying to work out why the government have announced extension of furlough to October after announcing the advice/instructions Sunday and Monday. I can think of a few.

Here’s what you and employers can plan before taking the easy option.

You’re lucky that we’ve extended it. Be thankful.

Any reasons that the critics can find in the government reacting or even backtracking due to criticism.

There’s still the issue of some businesses feeling the strain so the extended holiday won’t be for all.

I said this furlough scheme surely can’t go on until Christmas and now it looks like it could go on until October, although I doubt it protects business and industry enough so we’ll see.

Edit:

‘But he said the government will ask companies to "start sharing" the cost of the scheme from August.

Mr Sunak rejected suggestions some people might get "addicted" to furlough if it was extended.

Some 7.5 million workers are now covered by the scheme, up from 6.3 million last week, he said.
The chancellor told the Commons that from August, the scheme would continue for all sectors and regions of the country but with greater flexibility to support the transition back to work, he said.

Employers currently using the scheme would be able to bring furloughed employees back part-time.’

Interested to see how asking companies to share the cost of the scheme from August is going to work.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (12 May 2020 1.36pm)

 


COYP

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 12 May 20 1.16pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Anyone know why primary schools are opening but high school secondary schools aren’t?

Teenagers can be at home on their own?
Teenagers mix more after school?

 


COYP

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Tom-the-eagle Flag Croydon 12 May 20 1.19pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Anyone know why primary schools are opening but high school secondary schools aren’t?

Teenagers can be at home on their own?
Teenagers mix more after school?

And only reception, years one and six at that.

Good luck trying to get four and five year olds to understand social distancing

 


"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit

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Tom-the-eagle Flag Croydon 12 May 20 1.20pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Trying to work out why the government have announced extension of furlough to October after announcing the advice/instructions Sunday and Monday. I can think of a few.

Here’s what you and employers can plan before taking the easy option.

You’re lucky that we’ve extended it. Be thankful.

Any reasons that the critics can find in the government reacting or even backtracking due to criticism.

There’s still the issue of some businesses feeling the strain so the extended holiday won’t be for all.

I said this furlough scheme surely can’t go on until Christmas and now it looks like it could go on until October, although I doubt it protects business and industry enough so we’ll see.


And do we know if more help will be offered to self employed?

 


"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit

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cryrst Flag The garden of England 12 May 20 1.24pm Send a Private Message to cryrst Add cryrst as a friend

Originally posted by Tom-the-eagle


And do we know if more help will be offered to self employed?

No more than paye I would think. Everyone being paid on their earnings or profits declared is quite fair I would have thought. They have looked at three years and averaged on that for self employed.
Not sure what more they can do.

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 12 May 20 1.24pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Anyone know why primary schools are opening but high school secondary schools aren’t?

Teenagers can be at home on their own?
Teenagers mix more after school?

It’s probably more to get parents to be able to work, even if the furlough is extended, because not all want to or will be able to stay on furlough for financial and longer term reasons.

My question is why not teenagers?

 


COYP

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