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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Rudi Hedman  Caterham 06 Jul 16 9.05am |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
I get what you are saying but for each rise and fall having scrutiny and analysis as to why is completely logical from an economist's viewpoint. A lot of things still to come - some bad (and some good. hopefully) - will be directly attributed to Brexit 'jitters'/'optimism'. No point in not calling it how it is. The pound has fallen against the dollar because of Brexit. Sh1t happens. So the denial of Brexit is over for you then?
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Kermit8  Hevon 06 Jul 16 9.07am |
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Originally posted by Part Time James
Oo, will our exports be nice and cheap now? We'll have everyone clamouring to buy our produce with the pound so low. The UK is like a big Sports Direct sale at times like this. Very lucrative. The only thing we've exported this year is Top Gear. And those countries who bought it are demanding their money back and for Chris Evans to be doused in white flour and sent to Tanzania.
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| Kermit8 Hevon 06 Jul 16 9.09am |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
So the denial of Brexit is over for you then? eh? You won the referendum. Never said otherwise.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 06 Jul 16 9.29am |
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Originally posted by cardiff eagle
Not saying this is you but in general it's irritating that people who previously paid zero attention to currency exchanges or share indexes all of a sudden become experts and use declines to justify their own arguments. For example when the FTSE 250 was 10k in 2012 no one cared. All of a sudden it's 15.5k and the world falling apart! If I asked what that reduction in value against USD meant for the average person, I'd say 99% of them using it as their argument couldn't answer it. I'd also say that majority of those quoting exchange rates as a point of angry justification for why remain was correct are only angry because they have a holiday booked. So it's basic selfishness. So what does it mean? I'd like to know, I don't know much about this subject and would relish the chance to learn something.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 06 Jul 16 9.31am |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
eh? You won the referendum. Never said otherwise. I don't think a referendum is something you win, and the people celebrating victory classically fall in the trap of thinking 'they have won something'. This is of course untrue, a decision has been reached and a consensus made. The failure of politics is that its about winning, not being right. That's an issue that's echoed throughout history since Socrates.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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| Mapletree Croydon 06 Jul 16 9.47am |
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When the ForEx shifts as it has, exporters do well. We are a net importer of goods but net exporter of services. Our service sector relies heavily on Finance and business services. These services are in turmoil right now, we have to wait and see if we can find a stable long term solution for them.
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| JohnyBoy 06 Jul 16 9.53am |
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Originally posted by cardiff eagle
Not saying this is you but in general it's irritating that people who previously paid zero attention to currency exchanges or share indexes all of a sudden become experts and use declines to justify their own arguments. For example when the FTSE 250 was 10k in 2012 no one cared. All of a sudden it's 15.5k and the world falling apart! If I asked what that reduction in value against USD meant for the average person, I'd say 99% of them using it as their argument couldn't answer it. I'd also say that majority of those quoting exchange rates as a point of angry justification for why remain was correct are only angry because they have a holiday booked. So it's basic selfishness. It is irritating CE but this is now the reality of brexit. There will be very little good news coming from it over the next few years. Not just the bad news that was dismissed as project fear coming to fruition e.g sterlings decline but also the pillars that the leave campaign was based on....i.e. immigration wont come down, 350m wont be spent on the nhs per week (if anything nhs funding will decline in real terms), all of those miraculous new deals that we were gonna do outside the eu wont happen, housing shortages will increase there is even considerable doubt whether article 50 will be signed, so we are left in a state of political chaos, economic uncertainty (at best), a constitional mess & declining prosperity. This we know before the champagne has gone flat. Just wait for the constant newsflow of joblosses, reduced investment, house repos etc. I think this is real news (nb i am a remainer who wants to push the article 50 button now) not that i want to say i told you so but because its far more relevant to our society than all of that pro leave propoganda that was being touted by the mail and the sun prior to the referendum.
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| Hoof Hearted 06 Jul 16 10.50am | |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
More personal insults. Clearly I am getting to you, which is nice. I didn't say anyone voting Leave is intellectually inferior, I said they did it for their own purposes. Those don't match my aims in life, including my wishes for the future generations. As for pant/bed wetting, you must be joking. I am sh*tting myself. We will have to make the best or a bad situation, I am just not sure how bad it is going to get and for how long. You continually insult my intelligence though Maple.... and millions of others by inferring our decision to vote wasn't as carefully thought through as yours was. That wasn't a personal insult to you anyway - it was an observation in retaliation to what I felt having read your smug post to Slovenia Dave. You'll know when I'm insulting you! Why would you want to "get to me"? Why not have an adult debate without the need to "get at" people? Everyone else is slowly coming round to the idea, but not you and your daughter it seems. Edited by Hoof Hearted (06 Jul 2016 11.08am)
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| Hoof Hearted 06 Jul 16 10.57am | |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
Ok. But if they pass the points system they will be allowed to bring their families over too. So if say 40,000 are allowed to settle per annum and they are qualified and experienced and needed then it's fair to say they won't be many 21 year olds amongst them. Wives and children? That's gonna get that to over 100,000 straightaway. Australia allows the olds too to join their kids. So add another few thousand. Then there's the fruit and veg pickers. They are needed. Blimey. We are going to need loads. You still ignore the fact that we won't have the millions of EU migrants (plus their children and other relatives too) just turning up uninvited after our departure. We don't have to follow Australia's system exactly Kermit old chap.... we tailor it to our specific needs. Anyone can pick fruit and veg. No reason why we can't pick our own.... or bus in a crack squad of foreigners and bus them out again same day. We can cope.
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| Hoof Hearted 06 Jul 16 11.03am | |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
The pound has now fallen about 14% against the dollar since the referendum result. Yes.. making our exports very attractive!
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| Hoof Hearted 06 Jul 16 11.13am | |
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Doesn't sound good for the future of the EU when Carl Juncker refers to Cameroon, Boris and Sir Nigel as "Rats leaving a sinking ship!"
Who knew?
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I thought the EU had a few more years before it sunk without trace under the weight of it's own bureaucracy and corruption.| jamiemartin721 Reading 06 Jul 16 11.18am |
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Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
You still ignore the fact that we won't have the millions of EU migrants (plus their children and other relatives too) just turning up uninvited after our departure. Well presumably - That hasn't been established yet - and I think this is a key issue, that there is no certainty that this, or the next UK government will a) follow through on the referendum b) not accept freedom of movement for access to the EEA or EFTA. Its worth noting of course that most of those EU individuals will still be free to travel to the UK until the UK legislates specific employment laws relating to EU countries, and those currently in employment and present in the UK will still remain. Until Article 50 is completed, the UK remains subject to Freedom of Movement as well - and its looking increasingly likely that activating that article will not occur any time soon, possibly not even this year - with the opposition likely to demand a general election prior to beginning the article 50 negotiations. Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
We don't have to follow Australia's system exactly Kermit old chap.... we tailor it to our specific needs. Australia's system wouldn't work here, as its an immigration system, utterly unsuited to the UK needs of short term employment migration etc. Its also largely irrelevant as its fixed more towards permanent and long term migration. Also, I think we'd struggle in terms of our own laws to effectively imprison people awaiting asylum status to be confirmed. But yes, we'd need our own system. Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
Anyone can pick fruit and veg. No reason why we can't pick our own.... or bus in a crack squad of foreigners and bus them out again same day. We can cope. They would require work visas etc, so likely as not they'd need to stay short term, as it would be a nightmare for the border controls and expense in shipping them in on a daily basis. Maybe it would be better to consider shipping unemployed people around the UK to do the work, and pay them in addition to their benefits in the short term and look towards moving people in areas of high unemployment into areas with demand for low skill labour. Which would of course be quite costly, but arguably in terms of the future, provide a long term solution to a problem that's been endemic in the UK since the 80s. Of course you may have to raise the minimum wage, or otherwise subsidise such employment with a form of tax credit, at least in the short to medium term, until the wage situation balances out, to maintain the economic stability of employers as they graduate to a new model. If you were to say take 2m of the 3m EU workers in the UK out of the equation, you'd still need to find 2m people to fill those roles.
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