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VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Labour would lose a chunk of votes to Ukip but it would largely depend on what plans they had for EU negotiations. The tories may actually lose some seats to Ukip and Remainer Lib-dems.

TBH, it's all up in the air, as it's difficult to gauge the public's reaction to the complete shambles that's followed the referendum.

Edited by DaiShwmae (01 Jul 2016 8.50am)

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

"It's almost like a moral decision. Except not really cos noone is going to find out," Jez, Peep Show

Here's where we are.
I voted remain and was as gutted as anyone but we are where we are and an out vote is out...end of..we would hope.....but now that becomes the problem. Because the markets are now pricing in a 30% chance of brexit never happening and even if it does we get a brexit 'light' i.e. still paying a large contribution (without a rebate) and 80% of freedom of eu movement (i.e. no significant reduction in immigration), but free trade and no veto (if e.g. Turkey tried to join.)
What does this mean: the uk economy gdp growth for next 12 months will shrink from 2.3% to 0.8% (so techically not a recession) problem is it will feel like one because what is keeping it positive is external trade ( boosted by the much weaker pound) but domestic demand will be much harder hit. If you work in construction, estate agency, advertising or any other sector that relies on domestic demand then prepare yourself for job losses, wage reductions etc. If you work in a sector exposed to us$ sales e.g pharma, oil then you will likely notice very little.
My investment advice would be to get out of property, out of domestically focussed uk equities and strategically short sterling where possible.
Meanwhile look very closely at the bond markets (the canary in the coal mine). 10y yields are now below 1% down 40+bps in one week. Annuities are 8% lower than before the referendum and remember most financial assets had been priced with some brexit risk. There will have to be some reallignment in public spending i.e reduce spending on nhs, pensions or benefits unless we throw out our fiscal discipline and raise debt (which then becomes more expensive exacerbated by credit rating downgrades 'with negative outlook')....some call it hobsons choice....but we have made it...like it or not.
The thing however that could make this all worse (apart from a political vacuum and the absence of a plan) is uncertainty over whether brexit will happen. This will likely only get worse as people begin to feel the pain in job losses, inflation etc and places like cornwall realises it will lose funding. However, as much as i was a strong remainer and am gutted to leave we have to GET OVER IT, WE VOTED LEAVE so press the article 50 button asap...and live with it.

Is it "poofs" or "pooves" the plural?

Re- the markets, other than the usual 'panic', the result of the referendum hasn't changed a thing. A huge downturn is due regardless, but 'Brexit' will no doubt be blamed by many.

Since the turn of the year, Gold +40% Silver +50%. These rises will continue for a long while yet, imo.

Time to move forward together.