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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 23 Apr 20 10.58am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

The economy will play a large part in the relaxing of lockdown rules as whilst it would be good for everyone's health if the lockdown continued for another year it just isn't commercially viable as far too many businesses would go bust starting with the airlines

Medical experts vs economic experts/just people in the private sector.

My immediate response was very John McEnroe. My opinion was the same as Stirling’s. Just not yet. Keep the vulnerable in. The one issue there is with everyone going back to work, the selfish booking delivery slots and the supermarkets gleefully taking their money, we have a problem.

Of the 5 measures that need to be met to end or release the lockdown it is the 5th that I think they can never really meet. Maybe it’s just in there to save themselves from accusations of carelessness.

1. Making sure the NHS can cope

"We must protect the NHS' ability to cope. We must be confident we are able to provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment right across the UK.

2. There's a 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate

"We need to see a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate from coronavirus so we can be confident we have moved beyond the peak."

3. The rate of infection decreasing to 'manageable levels'

"We need to have reliable data from SAGE showing that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels across the board."

4. Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand

"We need to be confident that the range of operational challenges including testing capacity and PPE are in hand with supply able to meet future demand."

5. Being confident any adjustments would not risk a second peak

"We need to be confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelm the NHS."

The next review of the lockdown measures is set to take place on or around May 7.

 


COYP

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 23 Apr 20 11.02am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

The health aspect is tricky since figures are now appearing about the number of deaths related to the lockdown for things other than the virus. Supermarkets are also reporting increased sales of alcohol. Not to mention the mental health implications of making people stay in for months on end.

If supermarkets were prioritising to the elderly and vulnerable (people with low immune systems) they’d find their alcohol sales would fall instantly. But alcohol is revenue above the essential food spend so don’t expect that to happen unless they’re made to and even then it’s unlikely to happen.

 


COYP

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 23 Apr 20 11.04am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

NHS PPE can be stockpiled and then be replaced and/or sold as it goes past use by date. PPE for the public is another matter. You can have your own supply of masks I suppose.

Stockpiling of strategic reserves has to be the answer. Even if we manufactured everything in the UK it's doubtful whether sufficient capacity would exist to meet the current demand and you cannot have facilities standing idle most of the time.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Midlands Eagle Flag 23 Apr 20 11.05am Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle


Supermarkets are also reporting increased sales of alcohol. Not to mention the mental health implications of making people stay in for months on end.

How much of the increased sales in alcohol is to compensate for the pubs being shut?

 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 23 Apr 20 11.17am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Last night I kept hearing people on the tv talk about the possibility of a strict lockdown until we get a vaccine that might be Christmas, including the medical people on the vaccine debate on channel 4. I thought the hysteria had really happened. I then hear on Jeremy Vine on channel 5 that Matt Hancock talked about it yesterday.

(Note that having a vaccine doesn’t mean everyone is instantly going to be given the vaccine. That could take longer again)

This can’t be serious surely? 9 months of lockdown? I personally think we’re just going to copy Europe, especially Germany.

The situation in America is interesting. The oddest thing I heard is in Georgia I think. They’re going to open barbers, tattoo parlours and bowling alleys but some requirement to social distance.

I am getting closer to Stirling’s view. Vulnerable stay in and others gradually go out.

It was always going to be the case that once the potential threat of the NHS being overwhelmed had been removed by the lockdown that the brakes would come off gradually, with the very vulnerable being asked to stay isolated until they can be vaccinated. So what's being seen elsewhere will happen here too. Social distancing, masks and no mass gatherings will be with us all until everyone has been vaccinated and how long that is remains unknown.

It's not just the economic impact that needs to be mitigated but the health implications need to be kept in balance too and some of these are beginning to now become important.

These though are very difficult decisions to get right and there will always be a host of different opinions so whatever is decided will be regarded as wrong by many. Criticism is cheap and easy when you don't actually have to decide.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 23 Apr 20 11.22am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

How much of the increased sales in alcohol is to compensate for the pubs being shut?

Apply the level of alcohol in each drink.

4-5% for beers
12-13% for wine
40% for spirits

 


COYP

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 23 Apr 20 11.32am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

One of the problems is that opinions differ so widely. In the past couple of days they’ve said the peak of infections is past, here now and hasn’t yet arrived. Christmas has been mentioned but that seems to be an economic rather than scientific choice; it’s conceivable there may be sporadic lockdowns if there are future spikes but pubs are expected to be last. Quite a few won’t reopen after that length of time. It’s hard to see how they can sustain the lockdown if most of the world has returned to some semblance of normality.

Those damn Chinese. They closed our pub.

 


COYP

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Midlands Eagle Flag 23 Apr 20 11.41am Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle


These though are very difficult decisions to get right and there will always be a host of different opinions so whatever is decided will be regarded as wrong by many. Criticism is cheap and easy when you don't actually have to decide.

Especially on HOL

 

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Midlands Eagle Flag 23 Apr 20 11.49am Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle


It's unusual in this day and age to hear something positive about our handling of the crisis as the media lead by our trusty BBC are trying to dish up as much negative press as they can find.

Today's headlines is that "Essential workers are being ripped off at the petrol pumps" written by their business reporter who clearly has no grasp of company economics

The BBC have now had the decency to change the headline to "Drivers being 'ripped off for petrol'

 

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Teddy Eagle Flag 23 Apr 20 12.49pm Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Those damn Chinese. They closed our pub.

Yes they did. What a laugh, eh?

 

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Teddy Eagle Flag 23 Apr 20 12.52pm Send a Private Message to Teddy Eagle Add Teddy Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

How much of the increased sales in alcohol is to compensate for the pubs being shut?

Almost 100% would be my guess. With a corresponding rise in domestic violence.

 

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ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Apr 20 1.07pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Teddy Eagle

Almost 100% would be my guess. With a corresponding rise in domestic violence.

People who never drank before have taken up drinking too. You can hardly blame them.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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