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matt_himself Flag Matataland 16 Aug 15 7.18pm Send a Private Message to matt_himself Add matt_himself as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 16 Aug 2015 6.58pm

[Link]


Hmm, someone from that lefty rag, the ft, thinks Corbyn's 'peoples quantative easing' is quite a good idea.


Putting aside links that don't work, what do you think, independently, about Corbyn's economic plans, Gusset?

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

Alert Alert a moderator to this post Edit this post Quote this post in a reply
nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 16 Aug 15 7.49pm


Here is the article from the ft. Written by Matthew Klein.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the UK Labour Party, one positive consequence will be the ensuing discussion of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
It all started with his presentation on “The Economy in 2020” given on July 22:
The ‘rebalancing’ I have talked about here today means rebalancing away from finance towards the high-growth, sustainable sectors of the future. How do we do this? One option would be for the Bank of England to be given a new mandate to upgrade our economy to invest in new large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects: Quantitative easing for people instead of banks. Richard Murphy has been one of many economists making that case.

That passage seems to have been mostly ignored until August 3, when Chris Leslie, Labour’s shadow chancellor, attacked the policy, which in turn led to a detailed response from the aforementioned Richard Murphy (see also here and here), at which point what seems like the bulk of the British economics commentariat erupted. Just search the internet for “Corbynomics” if you don’t believe us.
Much of the commentary has been negative — former Bank of England economist Tony Yates concluded, for example, that “People’s QE” would be “the first step along the road to undermining the social usefulness of money” — although Chris Dillow gave an intelligent defense.
We don’t understand the negativity. Some of the specific arguments justifying the proposal may be flawed, but the core idea is sound and possesses an impressive intellectual pedigree. In fact, it could help solve one of the most troublesome questions in central banking: how policymakers can accomplish their objectives using the tools at their disposal, without producing too many unpleasant side effects.
One of the oddities of “monetary policy” is that it has almost no direct impact on how much money there is to go around.
Virtually all of what we commonly think of and use as money is actually short-term debt issued and retired at will by private financial firms. Monetary policymakers can affect the incentives of these profit-seeking entities but they have little control over the amount of nominal spending occurring in the economy. Nudging the unsecured overnight interbank lending rate up and down can encourage lenders to adjust their leverage, but good luck tying that to the traditional price stability mandate. (Also, a friendly reminder that the level of interest rates is basically irrelevant for corporate investment.)
Then there’s QE. Central banks across the rich world have been “printing money” — trillions! — without producing a large and obvious impact on inflation or real growth. That’s because, contrary to popular belief and the misleading language of too many commentators, they haven’t been “printing” anything at all. What’s actually happened is that policymakers have been finding people with extremely liquid assets and buying those assets at market prices. Giving someone 0 in exchange for an easy-to-sell bond currently trading at 0 has some impact but it’s much less exciting than “printing money”. As Mark Dow put it, “if we all understood monetary policy better, the Fed’s policies would be working far less well.”
The existing monetary policy tools also have the unseemly property of appearing to work mainly by making the rich richer and hoping that some of the extra wealth gets spent. Even if it’s true that the rest of society benefits from this, because otherwise they’d be unemployed, this is trickle-down monetary policy. The Bank of England admitted that “in practice, the benefits from these wealth effects will accrue to those households holding most financial assets”.
Cutting out the middle men is the most obvious way to improve the transmission of central banker desires into economic reality. If policymakers want people to spend, they shouldn’t try to juice share and home prices, or fiddle about with borrowing costs at the margin, but actually give people money.
(This, by the way, was the core insight of the “Capitol Hill Baby Sitting Co-op Crisis” made famous by Professor Krugman. There was no “monetary policy” as conventionally understood, just fiscal policy paired with monetisation of deficits. We highly recommend reading the original article in full, but the short version is that budget surpluses caused by excessive taxation led to a shrinking money supply and an unwillingness of the co-op’s members to use their increasingly-valuable scrip to purchase time away from the kids. Fiscal stimulus — a one-time tax rebate plus permanent tax cuts — solved the initial problem, but wasn’t executed well, so the co-op soon started suffering from a surfeit of scrip and too many people wanting to go out on the town.)
Our preferred approach would be direct deposits into household accounts offered at the central bank. It’s simple and doesn’t require any political debate about how best to spend the newly created money.
But Corbyn’s plan to have the Bank of England fund government-directed investment in infrastructure could also work, especially if the pace of investment were adjusted according to the condition of the economy. In fact, Adam Posen supported something similar when he was on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, except that he focused on small businesses.
Compare what Posen said back in 2011:
I would suggest that the Government set up two new public institutions to address the investment gap by increasing the availability of credit to SMEs and to new firms. One would be a public bank or authority for lending to small business…The other institution I would encourage the Government to set up would be an entity to bundle and securitize loans made to SMEs. Essentially, we need a good version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to create a more liquid and deep market for illiquid securities which can then be sold off of bank(s) balance sheets…

And this is where the Bank of England comes in. Both of these entities, the new SME lender(s) and Bennie, would need an initial infusion of capital…By announcing a commitment to lending the initial (gilt-backed) capital for these proposed entities, assuring all that such entities if well managed can have liquidity from the central bank as needed, and publicly supporting their creation, the Bank can do a lot to fill financing and investment gap in the UK…

More explicit and active cooperation between monetary policy and governmental programs to rectify our resulting investment shortfall is not only good policy, but likely to enhance the credibility and viability of our monetary regime. Our current credit allocation problems and resulting investment shortfall is one of the biggest specific barriers to recovery and to sustainable price stability in Britain. Monetary policy in the form of more QE will address this shortfall. The Bank of England, however, can and should go further than just doing more QE to remove this barrier to investment and growth in new and smaller businesses.

…to Richard Murphy’s description of “People’s Quantitative Easing”:
People’s quantitative easing is…a highly directed process where the debt that is repurchased has been deliberately created and issued either by a green investment bank or by local authorities, health trusts and other such agencies for the specific purpose of funding new investment in the economy at the time when big business and financial markets are completely failing to deliver the scale of investment that is needed to get the UK working again and to restore our financial prosperity.

And again:
No one is saying that this puts the BoE in charge of investment policy. It is just the purchaser of debts, as is the ECB right now to the tune of €60 billion a month. The decisions on how the money is used will rest solely with the government. The BoE is simply acting as a bank, providing funding for that purpose in a way that Mark Carney and Mario Draghi have both said is technically and legally possible.

Posen thought that private lenders weren’t providing credit where he believed it was needed, so he recommended creating new public investment banks that could originate and securitise loans into bonds that could then be purchased by the Bank of England, thereby funding new business investment. Corbyn/Murphy want specialised “green” investment banks, housing authorities, and local governments to be able to finance infrastructure investment secure in the knowledge that the Bank of England will be there to provide funding support. We fail to see a significant difference.
You could oppose the policy because you think the government will make bad investments, but by that logic you’re really just against any government-led infrastructure spending. You could also object to the idea that the government is effectively using the central bank to finance its deficit spending and undermining the shibboleth of “central bank independence”, but you would have to contend with the arguments of, among others, Martin Wolf, Paul McCulley, and that old communist Milton Friedman.
The main concern about Corbynomics isn’t whether the monetary transmission mechanism needs an upgrade — it does — but whether the UK actually needs that much additional investment spending.
There’s a plausible case to be made that the existing budget and household debt forecasts imply an unsustainable household debt spiral, so any additional spending that doesn’t require the private sector to live far beyond its means should be welcome.
Suppose you reject this analysis and prefer traditional guides to macro policy. A quick look at employment and hours worked suggests the economy is on fire and could use some rate hikes. But if you separate out the extra work effort from what’s happened with real incomes, the implication is that UK productivity growth has been abysmal:


If Corbyn’s preferred investments are useful, they could help restore some of the lost ground in productivity and lead to higher real wages for Britons. And by expanding capacity, this extra investment spending may not even end up being inflationary. (The actual amounts in question, according to Murphy, are quite small relative to the size of the UK economy.)

“People’s QE” is far from an obviously wrong idea. Implemented properly, it could even improve the Bank of England’s ability to fulfill its mandate without needing to goose house prices or get into contentious debates about helping the rich at the expense of pensioners.

Edited by nickgusset (16 Aug 2015 7.49pm)

 

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matt_himself Flag Matataland 17 Aug 15 7.19am Send a Private Message to matt_himself Add matt_himself as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 16 Aug 2015 7.49pm


Here is the article from the ft. Written by Matthew Klein.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the UK Labour Party, one positive consequence will be the ensuing discussion of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
It all started with his presentation on “The Economy in 2020” given on July 22:
The ‘rebalancing’ I have talked about here today means rebalancing away from finance towards the high-growth, sustainable sectors of the future. How do we do this? One option would be for the Bank of England to be given a new mandate to upgrade our economy to invest in new large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects: Quantitative easing for people instead of banks. Richard Murphy has been one of many economists making that case.

That passage seems to have been mostly ignored until August 3, when Chris Leslie, Labour’s shadow chancellor, attacked the policy, which in turn led to a detailed response from the aforementioned Richard Murphy (see also here and here), at which point what seems like the bulk of the British economics commentariat erupted. Just search the internet for “Corbynomics” if you don’t believe us.
Much of the commentary has been negative — former Bank of England economist Tony Yates concluded, for example, that “People’s QE” would be “the first step along the road to undermining the social usefulness of money” — although Chris Dillow gave an intelligent defense.
We don’t understand the negativity. Some of the specific arguments justifying the proposal may be flawed, but the core idea is sound and possesses an impressive intellectual pedigree. In fact, it could help solve one of the most troublesome questions in central banking: how policymakers can accomplish their objectives using the tools at their disposal, without producing too many unpleasant side effects.
One of the oddities of “monetary policy” is that it has almost no direct impact on how much money there is to go around.
Virtually all of what we commonly think of and use as money is actually short-term debt issued and retired at will by private financial firms. Monetary policymakers can affect the incentives of these profit-seeking entities but they have little control over the amount of nominal spending occurring in the economy. Nudging the unsecured overnight interbank lending rate up and down can encourage lenders to adjust their leverage, but good luck tying that to the traditional price stability mandate. (Also, a friendly reminder that the level of interest rates is basically irrelevant for corporate investment.)
Then there’s QE. Central banks across the rich world have been “printing money” — trillions! — without producing a large and obvious impact on inflation or real growth. That’s because, contrary to popular belief and the misleading language of too many commentators, they haven’t been “printing” anything at all. What’s actually happened is that policymakers have been finding people with extremely liquid assets and buying those assets at market prices. Giving someone 0 in exchange for an easy-to-sell bond currently trading at 0 has some impact but it’s much less exciting than “printing money”. As Mark Dow put it, “if we all understood monetary policy better, the Fed’s policies would be working far less well.”
The existing monetary policy tools also have the unseemly property of appearing to work mainly by making the rich richer and hoping that some of the extra wealth gets spent. Even if it’s true that the rest of society benefits from this, because otherwise they’d be unemployed, this is trickle-down monetary policy. The Bank of England admitted that “in practice, the benefits from these wealth effects will accrue to those households holding most financial assets”.
Cutting out the middle men is the most obvious way to improve the transmission of central banker desires into economic reality. If policymakers want people to spend, they shouldn’t try to juice share and home prices, or fiddle about with borrowing costs at the margin, but actually give people money.
(This, by the way, was the core insight of the “Capitol Hill Baby Sitting Co-op Crisis” made famous by Professor Krugman. There was no “monetary policy” as conventionally understood, just fiscal policy paired with monetisation of deficits. We highly recommend reading the original article in full, but the short version is that budget surpluses caused by excessive taxation led to a shrinking money supply and an unwillingness of the co-op’s members to use their increasingly-valuable scrip to purchase time away from the kids. Fiscal stimulus — a one-time tax rebate plus permanent tax cuts — solved the initial problem, but wasn’t executed well, so the co-op soon started suffering from a surfeit of scrip and too many people wanting to go out on the town.)
Our preferred approach would be direct deposits into household accounts offered at the central bank. It’s simple and doesn’t require any political debate about how best to spend the newly created money.
But Corbyn’s plan to have the Bank of England fund government-directed investment in infrastructure could also work, especially if the pace of investment were adjusted according to the condition of the economy. In fact, Adam Posen supported something similar when he was on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, except that he focused on small businesses.
Compare what Posen said back in 2011:
I would suggest that the Government set up two new public institutions to address the investment gap by increasing the availability of credit to SMEs and to new firms. One would be a public bank or authority for lending to small business…The other institution I would encourage the Government to set up would be an entity to bundle and securitize loans made to SMEs. Essentially, we need a good version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to create a more liquid and deep market for illiquid securities which can then be sold off of bank(s) balance sheets…

And this is where the Bank of England comes in. Both of these entities, the new SME lender(s) and Bennie, would need an initial infusion of capital…By announcing a commitment to lending the initial (gilt-backed) capital for these proposed entities, assuring all that such entities if well managed can have liquidity from the central bank as needed, and publicly supporting their creation, the Bank can do a lot to fill financing and investment gap in the UK…

More explicit and active cooperation between monetary policy and governmental programs to rectify our resulting investment shortfall is not only good policy, but likely to enhance the credibility and viability of our monetary regime. Our current credit allocation problems and resulting investment shortfall is one of the biggest specific barriers to recovery and to sustainable price stability in Britain. Monetary policy in the form of more QE will address this shortfall. The Bank of England, however, can and should go further than just doing more QE to remove this barrier to investment and growth in new and smaller businesses.

…to Richard Murphy’s description of “People’s Quantitative Easing”:
People’s quantitative easing is…a highly directed process where the debt that is repurchased has been deliberately created and issued either by a green investment bank or by local authorities, health trusts and other such agencies for the specific purpose of funding new investment in the economy at the time when big business and financial markets are completely failing to deliver the scale of investment that is needed to get the UK working again and to restore our financial prosperity.

And again:
No one is saying that this puts the BoE in charge of investment policy. It is just the purchaser of debts, as is the ECB right now to the tune of €60 billion a month. The decisions on how the money is used will rest solely with the government. The BoE is simply acting as a bank, providing funding for that purpose in a way that Mark Carney and Mario Draghi have both said is technically and legally possible.

Posen thought that private lenders weren’t providing credit where he believed it was needed, so he recommended creating new public investment banks that could originate and securitise loans into bonds that could then be purchased by the Bank of England, thereby funding new business investment. Corbyn/Murphy want specialised “green” investment banks, housing authorities, and local governments to be able to finance infrastructure investment secure in the knowledge that the Bank of England will be there to provide funding support. We fail to see a significant difference.
You could oppose the policy because you think the government will make bad investments, but by that logic you’re really just against any government-led infrastructure spending. You could also object to the idea that the government is effectively using the central bank to finance its deficit spending and undermining the shibboleth of “central bank independence”, but you would have to contend with the arguments of, among others, Martin Wolf, Paul McCulley, and that old communist Milton Friedman.
The main concern about Corbynomics isn’t whether the monetary transmission mechanism needs an upgrade — it does — but whether the UK actually needs that much additional investment spending.
There’s a plausible case to be made that the existing budget and household debt forecasts imply an unsustainable household debt spiral, so any additional spending that doesn’t require the private sector to live far beyond its means should be welcome.
Suppose you reject this analysis and prefer traditional guides to macro policy. A quick look at employment and hours worked suggests the economy is on fire and could use some rate hikes. But if you separate out the extra work effort from what’s happened with real incomes, the implication is that UK productivity growth has been abysmal:


If Corbyn’s preferred investments are useful, they could help restore some of the lost ground in productivity and lead to higher real wages for Britons. And by expanding capacity, this extra investment spending may not even end up being inflationary. (The actual amounts in question, according to Murphy, are quite small relative to the size of the UK economy.)

“People’s QE” is far from an obviously wrong idea. Implemented properly, it could even improve the Bank of England’s ability to fulfill its mandate without needing to goose house prices or get into contentious debates about helping the rich at the expense of pensioners.

Edited by nickgusset (16 Aug 2015 7.49pm)

What's it's saying is theoretically it could work if Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell don't, among other things, give into ideological whims, the economy is right and they have some luck.

Just remember theoretically a toddler could fight and beat one of the Klitshco brothers - if the conditions were right and the toddlers opponent had a heart attack before blows were exchanged.

No sale. The above is just theory and comes with too many caveats.

Go back to my previous - and unanswered question - do you think Corbyns economics stack up Gusset? No need for links, we have plenty of those. What is your view?

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

Alert Alert a moderator to this post Edit this post Quote this post in a reply
jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 17 Aug 15 8.44am

Quote matt_himself at 17 Aug 2015 7.19am

Quote nickgusset at 16 Aug 2015 7.49pm


Here is the article from the ft. Written by Matthew Klein.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the UK Labour Party, one positive consequence will be the ensuing discussion of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
It all started with his presentation on “The Economy in 2020” given on July 22:
The ‘rebalancing’ I have talked about here today means rebalancing away from finance towards the high-growth, sustainable sectors of the future. How do we do this? One option would be for the Bank of England to be given a new mandate to upgrade our economy to invest in new large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects: Quantitative easing for people instead of banks. Richard Murphy has been one of many economists making that case.

That passage seems to have been mostly ignored until August 3, when Chris Leslie, Labour’s shadow chancellor, attacked the policy, which in turn led to a detailed response from the aforementioned Richard Murphy (see also here and here), at which point what seems like the bulk of the British economics commentariat erupted. Just search the internet for “Corbynomics” if you don’t believe us.
Much of the commentary has been negative — former Bank of England economist Tony Yates concluded, for example, that “People’s QE” would be “the first step along the road to undermining the social usefulness of money” — although Chris Dillow gave an intelligent defense.
We don’t understand the negativity. Some of the specific arguments justifying the proposal may be flawed, but the core idea is sound and possesses an impressive intellectual pedigree. In fact, it could help solve one of the most troublesome questions in central banking: how policymakers can accomplish their objectives using the tools at their disposal, without producing too many unpleasant side effects.
One of the oddities of “monetary policy” is that it has almost no direct impact on how much money there is to go around.
Virtually all of what we commonly think of and use as money is actually short-term debt issued and retired at will by private financial firms. Monetary policymakers can affect the incentives of these profit-seeking entities but they have little control over the amount of nominal spending occurring in the economy. Nudging the unsecured overnight interbank lending rate up and down can encourage lenders to adjust their leverage, but good luck tying that to the traditional price stability mandate. (Also, a friendly reminder that the level of interest rates is basically irrelevant for corporate investment.)
Then there’s QE. Central banks across the rich world have been “printing money” — trillions! — without producing a large and obvious impact on inflation or real growth. That’s because, contrary to popular belief and the misleading language of too many commentators, they haven’t been “printing” anything at all. What’s actually happened is that policymakers have been finding people with extremely liquid assets and buying those assets at market prices. Giving someone 0 in exchange for an easy-to-sell bond currently trading at 0 has some impact but it’s much less exciting than “printing money”. As Mark Dow put it, “if we all understood monetary policy better, the Fed’s policies would be working far less well.”
The existing monetary policy tools also have the unseemly property of appearing to work mainly by making the rich richer and hoping that some of the extra wealth gets spent. Even if it’s true that the rest of society benefits from this, because otherwise they’d be unemployed, this is trickle-down monetary policy. The Bank of England admitted that “in practice, the benefits from these wealth effects will accrue to those households holding most financial assets”.
Cutting out the middle men is the most obvious way to improve the transmission of central banker desires into economic reality. If policymakers want people to spend, they shouldn’t try to juice share and home prices, or fiddle about with borrowing costs at the margin, but actually give people money.
(This, by the way, was the core insight of the “Capitol Hill Baby Sitting Co-op Crisis” made famous by Professor Krugman. There was no “monetary policy” as conventionally understood, just fiscal policy paired with monetisation of deficits. We highly recommend reading the original article in full, but the short version is that budget surpluses caused by excessive taxation led to a shrinking money supply and an unwillingness of the co-op’s members to use their increasingly-valuable scrip to purchase time away from the kids. Fiscal stimulus — a one-time tax rebate plus permanent tax cuts — solved the initial problem, but wasn’t executed well, so the co-op soon started suffering from a surfeit of scrip and too many people wanting to go out on the town.)
Our preferred approach would be direct deposits into household accounts offered at the central bank. It’s simple and doesn’t require any political debate about how best to spend the newly created money.
But Corbyn’s plan to have the Bank of England fund government-directed investment in infrastructure could also work, especially if the pace of investment were adjusted according to the condition of the economy. In fact, Adam Posen supported something similar when he was on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, except that he focused on small businesses.
Compare what Posen said back in 2011:
I would suggest that the Government set up two new public institutions to address the investment gap by increasing the availability of credit to SMEs and to new firms. One would be a public bank or authority for lending to small business…The other institution I would encourage the Government to set up would be an entity to bundle and securitize loans made to SMEs. Essentially, we need a good version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to create a more liquid and deep market for illiquid securities which can then be sold off of bank(s) balance sheets…

And this is where the Bank of England comes in. Both of these entities, the new SME lender(s) and Bennie, would need an initial infusion of capital…By announcing a commitment to lending the initial (gilt-backed) capital for these proposed entities, assuring all that such entities if well managed can have liquidity from the central bank as needed, and publicly supporting their creation, the Bank can do a lot to fill financing and investment gap in the UK…

More explicit and active cooperation between monetary policy and governmental programs to rectify our resulting investment shortfall is not only good policy, but likely to enhance the credibility and viability of our monetary regime. Our current credit allocation problems and resulting investment shortfall is one of the biggest specific barriers to recovery and to sustainable price stability in Britain. Monetary policy in the form of more QE will address this shortfall. The Bank of England, however, can and should go further than just doing more QE to remove this barrier to investment and growth in new and smaller businesses.

…to Richard Murphy’s description of “People’s Quantitative Easing”:
People’s quantitative easing is…a highly directed process where the debt that is repurchased has been deliberately created and issued either by a green investment bank or by local authorities, health trusts and other such agencies for the specific purpose of funding new investment in the economy at the time when big business and financial markets are completely failing to deliver the scale of investment that is needed to get the UK working again and to restore our financial prosperity.

And again:
No one is saying that this puts the BoE in charge of investment policy. It is just the purchaser of debts, as is the ECB right now to the tune of €60 billion a month. The decisions on how the money is used will rest solely with the government. The BoE is simply acting as a bank, providing funding for that purpose in a way that Mark Carney and Mario Draghi have both said is technically and legally possible.

Posen thought that private lenders weren’t providing credit where he believed it was needed, so he recommended creating new public investment banks that could originate and securitise loans into bonds that could then be purchased by the Bank of England, thereby funding new business investment. Corbyn/Murphy want specialised “green” investment banks, housing authorities, and local governments to be able to finance infrastructure investment secure in the knowledge that the Bank of England will be there to provide funding support. We fail to see a significant difference.
You could oppose the policy because you think the government will make bad investments, but by that logic you’re really just against any government-led infrastructure spending. You could also object to the idea that the government is effectively using the central bank to finance its deficit spending and undermining the shibboleth of “central bank independence”, but you would have to contend with the arguments of, among others, Martin Wolf, Paul McCulley, and that old communist Milton Friedman.
The main concern about Corbynomics isn’t whether the monetary transmission mechanism needs an upgrade — it does — but whether the UK actually needs that much additional investment spending.
There’s a plausible case to be made that the existing budget and household debt forecasts imply an unsustainable household debt spiral, so any additional spending that doesn’t require the private sector to live far beyond its means should be welcome.
Suppose you reject this analysis and prefer traditional guides to macro policy. A quick look at employment and hours worked suggests the economy is on fire and could use some rate hikes. But if you separate out the extra work effort from what’s happened with real incomes, the implication is that UK productivity growth has been abysmal:


If Corbyn’s preferred investments are useful, they could help restore some of the lost ground in productivity and lead to higher real wages for Britons. And by expanding capacity, this extra investment spending may not even end up being inflationary. (The actual amounts in question, according to Murphy, are quite small relative to the size of the UK economy.)

“People’s QE” is far from an obviously wrong idea. Implemented properly, it could even improve the Bank of England’s ability to fulfill its mandate without needing to goose house prices or get into contentious debates about helping the rich at the expense of pensioners.

Edited by nickgusset (16 Aug 2015 7.49pm)

What's it's saying is theoretically it could work if Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell don't, among other things, give into ideological whims, the economy is right and they have some luck.

Just remember theoretically a toddler could fight and beat one of the Klitshco brothers - if the conditions were right and the toddlers opponent had a heart attack before blows were exchanged.

No sale. The above is just theory and comes with too many caveats.

Go back to my previous - and unanswered question - do you think Corbyns economics stack up Gusset? No need for links, we have plenty of those. What is your view?

Please refrain from 'badgering' posters and just repeatedly asking the same question. Clearly the poster agrees with Corbyn. This is not Newsnight.


 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

Alert Alert a moderator to this post Quote this post in a reply
matt_himself Flag Matataland 17 Aug 15 9.04am Send a Private Message to matt_himself Add matt_himself as a friend

I

Quote jamiemartin721 at 17 Aug 2015 8.44am

Quote matt_himself at 17 Aug 2015 7.19am

Quote nickgusset at 16 Aug 2015 7.49pm


Here is the article from the ft. Written by Matthew Klein.

If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader of the UK Labour Party, one positive consequence will be the ensuing discussion of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
It all started with his presentation on “The Economy in 2020” given on July 22:
The ‘rebalancing’ I have talked about here today means rebalancing away from finance towards the high-growth, sustainable sectors of the future. How do we do this? One option would be for the Bank of England to be given a new mandate to upgrade our economy to invest in new large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects: Quantitative easing for people instead of banks. Richard Murphy has been one of many economists making that case.

That passage seems to have been mostly ignored until August 3, when Chris Leslie, Labour’s shadow chancellor, attacked the policy, which in turn led to a detailed response from the aforementioned Richard Murphy (see also here and here), at which point what seems like the bulk of the British economics commentariat erupted. Just search the internet for “Corbynomics” if you don’t believe us.
Much of the commentary has been negative — former Bank of England economist Tony Yates concluded, for example, that “People’s QE” would be “the first step along the road to undermining the social usefulness of money” — although Chris Dillow gave an intelligent defense.
We don’t understand the negativity. Some of the specific arguments justifying the proposal may be flawed, but the core idea is sound and possesses an impressive intellectual pedigree. In fact, it could help solve one of the most troublesome questions in central banking: how policymakers can accomplish their objectives using the tools at their disposal, without producing too many unpleasant side effects.
One of the oddities of “monetary policy” is that it has almost no direct impact on how much money there is to go around.
Virtually all of what we commonly think of and use as money is actually short-term debt issued and retired at will by private financial firms. Monetary policymakers can affect the incentives of these profit-seeking entities but they have little control over the amount of nominal spending occurring in the economy. Nudging the unsecured overnight interbank lending rate up and down can encourage lenders to adjust their leverage, but good luck tying that to the traditional price stability mandate. (Also, a friendly reminder that the level of interest rates is basically irrelevant for corporate investment.)
Then there’s QE. Central banks across the rich world have been “printing money” — trillions! — without producing a large and obvious impact on inflation or real growth. That’s because, contrary to popular belief and the misleading language of too many commentators, they haven’t been “printing” anything at all. What’s actually happened is that policymakers have been finding people with extremely liquid assets and buying those assets at market prices. Giving someone 0 in exchange for an easy-to-sell bond currently trading at 0 has some impact but it’s much less exciting than “printing money”. As Mark Dow put it, “if we all understood monetary policy better, the Fed’s policies would be working far less well.”
The existing monetary policy tools also have the unseemly property of appearing to work mainly by making the rich richer and hoping that some of the extra wealth gets spent. Even if it’s true that the rest of society benefits from this, because otherwise they’d be unemployed, this is trickle-down monetary policy. The Bank of England admitted that “in practice, the benefits from these wealth effects will accrue to those households holding most financial assets”.
Cutting out the middle men is the most obvious way to improve the transmission of central banker desires into economic reality. If policymakers want people to spend, they shouldn’t try to juice share and home prices, or fiddle about with borrowing costs at the margin, but actually give people money.
(This, by the way, was the core insight of the “Capitol Hill Baby Sitting Co-op Crisis” made famous by Professor Krugman. There was no “monetary policy” as conventionally understood, just fiscal policy paired with monetisation of deficits. We highly recommend reading the original article in full, but the short version is that budget surpluses caused by excessive taxation led to a shrinking money supply and an unwillingness of the co-op’s members to use their increasingly-valuable scrip to purchase time away from the kids. Fiscal stimulus — a one-time tax rebate plus permanent tax cuts — solved the initial problem, but wasn’t executed well, so the co-op soon started suffering from a surfeit of scrip and too many people wanting to go out on the town.)
Our preferred approach would be direct deposits into household accounts offered at the central bank. It’s simple and doesn’t require any political debate about how best to spend the newly created money.
But Corbyn’s plan to have the Bank of England fund government-directed investment in infrastructure could also work, especially if the pace of investment were adjusted according to the condition of the economy. In fact, Adam Posen supported something similar when he was on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, except that he focused on small businesses.
Compare what Posen said back in 2011:
I would suggest that the Government set up two new public institutions to address the investment gap by increasing the availability of credit to SMEs and to new firms. One would be a public bank or authority for lending to small business…The other institution I would encourage the Government to set up would be an entity to bundle and securitize loans made to SMEs. Essentially, we need a good version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to create a more liquid and deep market for illiquid securities which can then be sold off of bank(s) balance sheets…

And this is where the Bank of England comes in. Both of these entities, the new SME lender(s) and Bennie, would need an initial infusion of capital…By announcing a commitment to lending the initial (gilt-backed) capital for these proposed entities, assuring all that such entities if well managed can have liquidity from the central bank as needed, and publicly supporting their creation, the Bank can do a lot to fill financing and investment gap in the UK…

More explicit and active cooperation between monetary policy and governmental programs to rectify our resulting investment shortfall is not only good policy, but likely to enhance the credibility and viability of our monetary regime. Our current credit allocation problems and resulting investment shortfall is one of the biggest specific barriers to recovery and to sustainable price stability in Britain. Monetary policy in the form of more QE will address this shortfall. The Bank of England, however, can and should go further than just doing more QE to remove this barrier to investment and growth in new and smaller businesses.

…to Richard Murphy’s description of “People’s Quantitative Easing”:
People’s quantitative easing is…a highly directed process where the debt that is repurchased has been deliberately created and issued either by a green investment bank or by local authorities, health trusts and other such agencies for the specific purpose of funding new investment in the economy at the time when big business and financial markets are completely failing to deliver the scale of investment that is needed to get the UK working again and to restore our financial prosperity.

And again:
No one is saying that this puts the BoE in charge of investment policy. It is just the purchaser of debts, as is the ECB right now to the tune of €60 billion a month. The decisions on how the money is used will rest solely with the government. The BoE is simply acting as a bank, providing funding for that purpose in a way that Mark Carney and Mario Draghi have both said is technically and legally possible.

Posen thought that private lenders weren’t providing credit where he believed it was needed, so he recommended creating new public investment banks that could originate and securitise loans into bonds that could then be purchased by the Bank of England, thereby funding new business investment. Corbyn/Murphy want specialised “green” investment banks, housing authorities, and local governments to be able to finance infrastructure investment secure in the knowledge that the Bank of England will be there to provide funding support. We fail to see a significant difference.
You could oppose the policy because you think the government will make bad investments, but by that logic you’re really just against any government-led infrastructure spending. You could also object to the idea that the government is effectively using the central bank to finance its deficit spending and undermining the shibboleth of “central bank independence”, but you would have to contend with the arguments of, among others, Martin Wolf, Paul McCulley, and that old communist Milton Friedman.
The main concern about Corbynomics isn’t whether the monetary transmission mechanism needs an upgrade — it does — but whether the UK actually needs that much additional investment spending.
There’s a plausible case to be made that the existing budget and household debt forecasts imply an unsustainable household debt spiral, so any additional spending that doesn’t require the private sector to live far beyond its means should be welcome.
Suppose you reject this analysis and prefer traditional guides to macro policy. A quick look at employment and hours worked suggests the economy is on fire and could use some rate hikes. But if you separate out the extra work effort from what’s happened with real incomes, the implication is that UK productivity growth has been abysmal:


If Corbyn’s preferred investments are useful, they could help restore some of the lost ground in productivity and lead to higher real wages for Britons. And by expanding capacity, this extra investment spending may not even end up being inflationary. (The actual amounts in question, according to Murphy, are quite small relative to the size of the UK economy.)

“People’s QE” is far from an obviously wrong idea. Implemented properly, it could even improve the Bank of England’s ability to fulfill its mandate without needing to goose house prices or get into contentious debates about helping the rich at the expense of pensioners.

Edited by nickgusset (16 Aug 2015 7.49pm)

What's it's saying is theoretically it could work if Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell don't, among other things, give into ideological whims, the economy is right and they have some luck.

Just remember theoretically a toddler could fight and beat one of the Klitshco brothers - if the conditions were right and the toddlers opponent had a heart attack before blows were exchanged.

No sale. The above is just theory and comes with too many caveats.

Go back to my previous - and unanswered question - do you think Corbyns economics stack up Gusset? No need for links, we have plenty of those. What is your view?

Please refrain from 'badgering' posters and just repeatedly asking the same question. Clearly the poster agrees with Corbyn. This is not Newsnight.


Deleted.

Edited by matt_himself (17 Aug 2015 9.12am)

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

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Kermit8 Flag Hevon 17 Aug 15 10.06am Send a Private Message to Kermit8 Add Kermit8 as a friend

Such a refreshing change from the suited, spin doctoring, bland politics of the last 20 years. Wouldn't have minded if it had been a rabid Thatcherite that had come to the fore on the other side rather than Jeremy C either just to shake things up a bit.

Farage was/is a fake so he never got my balls tingling.

Let's hope Corbyn wins the vote.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


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leggedstruggle Flag Croydon 17 Aug 15 11.19am

Quote Kermit8 at 17 Aug 2015 10.06am

Such a refreshing change from the suited, spin doctoring, bland politics of the last 20 years. Wouldn't have minded if it had been a rabid Thatcherite that had come to the fore on the other side rather than Jeremy C either just to shake things up a bit.

Farage was/is a fake so he never got my balls tingling.

Let's hope Corbyn wins the vote.

Farage fake? You mean he really likes the EU and wants us to stay in it while it sucks all its members down to catastrophe like a black hole.

 


mother-in-law is an anagram of woman hitler

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johnfirewall Flag 17 Aug 15 11.41am Send a Private Message to johnfirewall Add johnfirewall as a friend

Just sounds like a fluke to me. What he's tried to do is appeal to the clueless youth who relentlessly talk about the banks and creation of money, conveniently providing funds for their other absurd ideals of having the state own everything.

Are we really giving him the credit for 'people's QE' getting some support from genuine economists who point out that short term debt issuance is a viable solution? Any entity in the world would benefit from low rate borrowing.

 

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Kermit8 Flag Hevon 17 Aug 15 11.57am Send a Private Message to Kermit8 Add Kermit8 as a friend

Quote leggedstruggle at 17 Aug 2015 11.19am

Quote Kermit8 at 17 Aug 2015 10.06am

Such a refreshing change from the suited, spin doctoring, bland politics of the last 20 years. Wouldn't have minded if it had been a rabid Thatcherite that had come to the fore on the other side rather than Jeremy C either just to shake things up a bit.

Farage was/is a fake so he never got my balls tingling.

Let's hope Corbyn wins the vote.

Farage fake? You mean he really likes the EU and wants us to stay in it while it sucks all its members down to catastrophe like a black hole.


Not quite. I mean he likes the sound of his own voice and political career far more than he dislikes the EU. Conviction politician, my arse.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


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Mr_Gristle Flag In the land of Whelk Eaters 17 Aug 15 1.47pm Send a Private Message to Mr_Gristle Add Mr_Gristle as a friend

Amused to see that the smear wagon is in full steam against Corbyn now.

If he really, really is such a deluded fruit loop, surely it's easier to give him the rope with which he can hang himself!

Or is the Establishment worried that he'll strike a few too many chords with the plebs? Can't have that, can we?

 


Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune)

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tome Flag Inner Tantalus Time. 17 Aug 15 7.04pm Send a Private Message to tome Add tome as a friend

Quote matt_himself at 17 Aug 2015 7.19am

Quote nickgusset at 16 Aug 2015 7.49pm


Here is the article from the ft. Written by Matthew Klein.


If Corbyn’s preferred investments are useful, they could help restore some of the lost ground in productivity and lead to higher real wages for Britons. And by expanding capacity, this extra investment spending may not even end up being inflationary. (The actual amounts in question, according to Murphy, are quite small relative to the size of the UK economy.)

“People’s QE” is far from an obviously wrong idea. Implemented properly, it could even improve the Bank of England’s ability to fulfill its mandate without needing to goose house prices or get into contentious debates about helping the rich at the expense of pensioners.

Edited by nickgusset (16 Aug 2015 7.49pm)

What's it's saying is theoretically it could work if Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell don't, among other things, give into ideological whims, the economy is right and they have some luck.

Just remember theoretically a toddler could fight and beat one of the Klitshco brothers - if the conditions were right and the toddlers opponent had a heart attack before blows were exchanged.

No sale. The above is just theory and comes with too many caveats.

Go back to my previous - and unanswered question - do you think Corbyns economics stack up Gusset? No need for links, we have plenty of those. What is your view?


Matt, I wonder, isn't this by and large the caveat that always applies to campaigning politicians? They come up with an idea of adjusting the economy and test that hypothesis when they implement it?

Sure, it's dependent on the quality of their judgement about investment - or those of the Bank of England. One could argue that they'd hardly do any worse than the rest of the banks did - all those bailouts and so on.

Certainly, they'd need to be some workings involved - but I'd wager the alignment with the ideas of serious economists is a good start point, no? What would you suggest would be more credible?

Edited by tome (17 Aug 2015 7.05pm)

 


A one and a two...

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leggedstruggle Flag Croydon 17 Aug 15 8.38pm

There is nothing wrong in Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour party as such. It would mean there is a real choice for the electorate instead of all the parties fighting for the centre ground. However, it is very unlikely that he would ever get into power with his policies. But a protest style party of opposition would be quite healthy.

 


mother-in-law is an anagram of woman hitler

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