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Badger11 Beckenham 26 Dec 20 10.00am
What happens next? Assuming the deal is passed by both sides and there are no hidden problems: 1. Hopefully things will calm down and both sides will dial down the rhetoric get on with their other pressing issues. 2. I think we will see a series of mini deals over the next 5-10 years smoothing out some of the minor stuff such as paperwork / red tape. 3. I don't see more countries leaving the EU unless they really screws things up. I do see more arguments as German and France are now the paymasters and some of the other countries especially Ireland are now being asked to pony up. They have lost a lot of revenue. 4. The EU will continue to integrate further as the UK anchor has finally gone. The EU super state will become a reality in the next 20 years. Whether it contains all 27 members maybe not I think a 2 track EU is very likely an inner Northern European group and the rest. 5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point) 6. Boris needs to incentivise business to trade outside the EU and manufacture more stuff at home if we can thrive outside the EU then I hope that the Remainer / Rejoiner arguement and Scotland Independence will wither away. The buck is now with the UK government if we fail it is down to Boris and Co they need to get this right. Overall I think the deal has shown that despite the doom mongers the UK is still a country to be reckoned with and living outside the EU will not impact peoples lives as much as they feared. We will do fine and as long as Boris can hold off Indyref2 I think in maybe 5 years the people of Scotland will accept the status quo. Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am) One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 26 Dec 20 10.00am

What happens next? Assuming the deal is passed by both sides and there are no hidden problems:

1. Hopefully things will calm down and both sides will dial down the rhetoric get on with their other pressing issues.

2. I think we will see a series of mini deals over the next 5-10 years smoothing out some of the minor stuff such as paperwork / red tape.

3. I don't see more countries leaving the EU unless they really screws things up. I do see more arguments as German and France are now the paymasters and some of the other countries especially Ireland are now being asked to pony up. They have lost a lot of revenue.

4. The EU will continue to integrate further as the UK anchor has finally gone. The EU super state will become a reality in the next 20 years. Whether it contains all 27 members maybe not I think a 2 track EU is very likely an inner Northern European group and the rest.

5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point)

6. Boris needs to incentivise business to trade outside the EU and manufacture more stuff at home if we can thrive outside the EU then I hope that the Remainer / Rejoiner arguement and Scotland Independence will wither away. The buck is now with the UK government if we fail it is down to Boris and Co they need to get this right.

Overall I think the deal has shown that despite the doom mongers the UK is still a country to be reckoned with and living outside the EU will not impact peoples lives as much as they feared.

We will do fine and as long as Boris can hold off Indyref2 I think in maybe 5 years the people of Scotland will accept the status quo.

Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am)

One more point

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Matov 26 Dec 20 11.13am
Originally posted by Badger11 5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point) Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am) Showing how ludicrous the SNP's economic 'plans' are is bloody easy. Apparently, their stance would be that Scotland essentially remains in a UK wide financial union until they can transition to their own currency/or the Euro. Like England is going to swallow that. And with the oil price as it is, sheer lunacy. Personally, I think I would be of a mind to give the SNP even more devolutionary powers. Give them more rope to hang themselves by. At the moment their entire support is based on nothing more than anti-English sentiment amongst their support with this fuzzy, soft-focus, on how wonderful it is to be 'European'. No sense of the strength of their own identity in a positive way. Just a desperate desire to be free of the big bad English and then try to become something that they are not nor ever can truly be. Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

26 Dec 20 11.13am

Originally posted by Badger11

5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point)

Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am)

Showing how ludicrous the SNP's economic 'plans' are is bloody easy. Apparently, their stance would be that Scotland essentially remains in a UK wide financial union until they can transition to their own currency/or the Euro. Like England is going to swallow that. And with the oil price as it is, sheer lunacy.

Personally, I think I would be of a mind to give the SNP even more devolutionary powers. Give them more rope to hang themselves by. At the moment their entire support is based on nothing more than anti-English sentiment amongst their support with this fuzzy, soft-focus, on how wonderful it is to be 'European'. No sense of the strength of their own identity in a positive way. Just a desperate desire to be free of the big bad English and then try to become something that they are not nor ever can truly be.

Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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chris123 hove actually 26 Dec 20 11.47am
Originally posted by Matov Showing how ludicrous the SNP's economic 'plans' are is bloody easy. Apparently, their stance would be that Scotland essentially remains in a UK wide financial union until they can transition to their own currency/or the Euro. Like England is going to swallow that. And with the oil price as it is, sheer lunacy. Personally, I think I would be of a mind to give the SNP even more devolutionary powers. Give them more rope to hang themselves by. At the moment their entire support is based on nothing more than anti-English sentiment amongst their support with this fuzzy, soft-focus, on how wonderful it is to be 'European'. No sense of the strength of their own identity in a positive way. Just a desperate desire to be free of the big bad English and then try to become something that they are not nor ever can truly be. Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria. I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union.
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chris123

hove actually 26 Dec 20 11.47am

Originally posted by Matov

Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria.

I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union.

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Henry of Peckham Eton Mess 26 Dec 20 12.08pm
Originally posted by chris123 I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union. They want to break up a union to join a union? ... irrational anti British sentiment if you ask me. Denial is not just a river in Egypt
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Henry of Peckham

Eton Mess 26 Dec 20 12.08pm

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Originally posted by chris123

I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union.

They want to break up a union to join a union? ... irrational anti British sentiment if you ask me.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt

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jeeagles 26 Dec 20 12.16pm
Originally posted by Badger11 What happens next? Assuming the deal is passed by both sides and there are no hidden problems: 1. Hopefully things will calm down and both sides will dial down the rhetoric get on with their other pressing issues. 2. I think we will see a series of mini deals over the next 5-10 years smoothing out some of the minor stuff such as paperwork / red tape. 3. I don't see more countries leaving the EU unless they really screws things up. I do see more arguments as German and France are now the paymasters and some of the other countries especially Ireland are now being asked to pony up. They have lost a lot of revenue. 4. The EU will continue to integrate further as the UK anchor has finally gone. The EU super state will become a reality in the next 20 years. Whether it contains all 27 members maybe not I think a 2 track EU is very likely an inner Northern European group and the rest. 5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point) 6. Boris needs to incentivise business to trade outside the EU and manufacture more stuff at home if we can thrive outside the EU then I hope that the Remainer / Rejoiner arguement and Scotland Independence will wither away. The buck is now with the UK government if we fail it is down to Boris and Co they need to get this right. Overall I think the deal has shown that despite the doom mongers the UK is still a country to be reckoned with and living outside the EU will not impact peoples lives as much as they feared. We will do fine and as long as Boris can hold off Indyref2 I think in maybe 5 years the people of Scotland will accept the status quo. Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am) Boris probably sees large political gains are possible by taking on the SNP. They are now the establishment and not the protest party. There's a lot of resentment towards them and a lot has changed since 1997 when the Tories won 0 seats in Scotland.
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jeeagles

26 Dec 20 12.16pm

Originally posted by Badger11

What happens next? Assuming the deal is passed by both sides and there are no hidden problems:

1. Hopefully things will calm down and both sides will dial down the rhetoric get on with their other pressing issues.

2. I think we will see a series of mini deals over the next 5-10 years smoothing out some of the minor stuff such as paperwork / red tape.

5. Scottish Independence will not go away Boris needs to convince the voters that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the SNP plans do not make sense. (see next point)

Overall I think the deal has shown that despite the doom mongers the UK is still a country to be reckoned with and living outside the EU will not impact peoples lives as much as they feared.

We will do fine and as long as Boris can hold off Indyref2 I think in maybe 5 years the people of Scotland will accept the status quo.

Edited by Badger11 (26 Dec 2020 10.02am)

Boris probably sees large political gains are possible by taking on the SNP. They are now the establishment and not the protest party. There's a lot of resentment towards them and a lot has changed since 1997 when the Tories won 0 seats in Scotland.

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Matov 26 Dec 20 12.17pm
Originally posted by chris123 I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would want to join a union. Utterly bizarre really. If Brexit has confirmed anything it is that France and Germany dominate how the EU acts and thinks. With an independent Scotland within the EU barely a minnow. Amongst the smallest of the 27. A Southern European economy without even the weather to compensate. A freezing cold version of Croatia. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

26 Dec 20 12.17pm

Originally posted by chris123

I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would want to join a union.

Utterly bizarre really. If Brexit has confirmed anything it is that France and Germany dominate how the EU acts and thinks.

With an independent Scotland within the EU barely a minnow. Amongst the smallest of the 27. A Southern European economy without even the weather to compensate. A freezing cold version of Croatia.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Badger11 Beckenham 26 Dec 20 12.36pm
Originally posted by Matov Showing how ludicrous the SNP's economic 'plans' are is bloody easy. Apparently, their stance would be that Scotland essentially remains in a UK wide financial union until they can transition to their own currency/or the Euro. Like England is going to swallow that. And with the oil price as it is, sheer lunacy. Personally, I think I would be of a mind to give the SNP even more devolutionary powers. Give them more rope to hang themselves by. At the moment their entire support is based on nothing more than anti-English sentiment amongst their support with this fuzzy, soft-focus, on how wonderful it is to be 'European'. No sense of the strength of their own identity in a positive way. Just a desperate desire to be free of the big bad English and then try to become something that they are not nor ever can truly be. Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria. We should be doing that anyway and not just to the national governments. Brexit is about taking power away Westminster should not be consolidating that which it takes back from the EU it should pass it back down the line. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 26 Dec 20 12.36pm

Originally posted by Matov

Personally, I think I would be of a mind to give the SNP even more devolutionary powers. Give them more rope to hang themselves by. At the moment their entire support is based on nothing more than anti-English sentiment amongst their support with this fuzzy, soft-focus, on how wonderful it is to be 'European'. No sense of the strength of their own identity in a positive way. Just a desperate desire to be free of the big bad English and then try to become something that they are not nor ever can truly be.

Scottish nationalism might be supposedly resurgent but what it is based on, seems nothing more than a kind of mass hysteria.

We should be doing that anyway and not just to the national governments. Brexit is about taking power away Westminster should not be consolidating that which it takes back from the EU it should pass it back down the line.

One more point

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nead1 26 Dec 20 1.01pm
In my judgement we have traded a very good and influential position within the EU - outside of the Euro, Shengen, Social Chapter with numerous rebates - for the deal that has now been struck. As most commentators seem to acknowledge, it is pretty minimalist. The prize is our apparent independence and ability to behave as Global Britain - something the Spartans (Cash, Francois, Bone etc all independently older men of independent means) apparently view as key even though other members of the EU trade perfectly well with China and other blocs already. It was not our membership of the EU that has prevented us being more successful in this context. The price of all of this has been the incredible rancour and division of the past 4 years; equally, the break up of the UK looks highly likely. NI is essentially still in the EU through the withdrawl agreement and are likely to look more and more toward Dublin especially as the population of NI is almost 50% Nationalist. Equally, it is hard to see how the position re a referendum in Scotland can be maintained. Scottish independence is more an emotional than economic issue as they see it (just like Brexit) and a view that they can thrive as a small trading nation just like NZ. The behaviour of Boris and his cronies just builds the case day by day - the Scots do not in any way relate to him. One final point. The deal that has been done with the EU was essentially delivered for the UK by dedicated civil servants in the Foreign Office in Brussels and the no 10 unit. They worked day and night for months at a time with no days off. Interestingly, Boris made virtually no mention of this and showed already that he is not on top of the detail of what's been agreed in any case. It was just more bluff and bluster just like he has handled the whole Covid crisis. I wonder if he now recognises that Civil Servants are actually an incredible asset to both him and the UK? Interestingly, there has been virtually no mention of CS reform as a priority since the departure of Cummings. I appreciate my views differ from most who post on this subject but it never does any harm to recognise that there are still and will be for years very conflicting views on the wisdom of what has been done. The proof will ultimately be in terms of the prosperity and indeed survival of the UK. I hope those who voted for it - especially in the poorer areas of the North and Wales - do not live to regret it.
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nead1

26 Dec 20 1.01pm

In my judgement we have traded a very good and influential position within the EU - outside of the Euro, Shengen, Social Chapter with numerous rebates - for the deal that has now been struck. As most commentators seem to acknowledge, it is pretty minimalist.
The prize is our apparent independence and ability to behave as Global Britain - something the Spartans (Cash, Francois, Bone etc all independently older men of independent means) apparently view as key even though other members of the EU trade perfectly well with China and other blocs already. It was not our membership of the EU that has prevented us being more successful in this context.
The price of all of this has been the incredible rancour and division of the past 4 years; equally, the break up of the UK looks highly likely. NI is essentially still in the EU through the withdrawl agreement and are likely to look more and more toward Dublin especially as the population of NI is almost 50% Nationalist. Equally, it is hard to see how the position re a referendum in Scotland can be maintained. Scottish independence is more an emotional than economic issue as they see it (just like Brexit) and a view that they can thrive as a small trading nation just like NZ. The behaviour of Boris and his cronies just builds the case day by day - the Scots do not in any way relate to him.
One final point. The deal that has been done with the EU was essentially delivered for the UK by dedicated civil servants in the Foreign Office in Brussels and the no 10 unit. They worked day and night for months at a time with no days off. Interestingly, Boris made virtually no mention of this and showed already that he is not on top of the detail of what's been agreed in any case. It was just more bluff and bluster just like he has handled the whole Covid crisis. I wonder if he now recognises that Civil Servants are actually an incredible asset to both him and the UK? Interestingly, there has been virtually no mention of CS reform as a priority since the departure of Cummings.
I appreciate my views differ from most who post on this subject but it never does any harm to recognise that there are still and will be for years very conflicting views on the wisdom of what has been done. The proof will ultimately be in terms of the prosperity and indeed survival of the UK. I hope those who voted for it - especially in the poorer areas of the North and Wales - do not live to regret it.

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Phil’s Barber Crowborough 26 Dec 20 2.06pm
Originally posted by Willo It appears as though a compromise was reached.The EU wanted a 14 year transition, the UK offered 3 years but a settlement was reached at 5.5 years. For avoidance of doubt I have not seen the text of the whole deal but the above is what has been mentioned. Edited by Willo (25 Dec 2020 10.38am) No one was in any doubt Willo...the text wasn’t even released/published until today. Edited by Phil’s Barber (26 Dec 2020 2.10pm)
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Phil’s Barber

Crowborough 26 Dec 20 2.06pm

Originally posted by Willo

It appears as though a compromise was reached.The EU wanted a 14 year transition, the UK offered 3 years but a settlement was reached at 5.5 years.

For avoidance of doubt I have not seen the text of the whole deal but the above is what has been mentioned.

Edited by Willo (25 Dec 2020 10.38am)

No one was in any doubt Willo...the text wasn’t even released/published until today.

Edited by Phil’s Barber (26 Dec 2020 2.10pm)

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Jimenez SELHURSTPARKCHESTER,DA BRONX 26 Dec 20 2.52pm
Originally posted by chris123 I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union. Sinn Fein the same????? Pro USA & Israel
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Jimenez

SELHURSTPARKCHESTER,DA BRONX 26 Dec 20 2.52pm

Originally posted by chris123

I still don't quite understand why a nationalist party would won't to join a union.

Sinn Fein the same?????

Pro USA & Israel

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Badger11 Beckenham 26 Dec 20 2.59pm
Another thought I had. This deal took less than a year to negotiate the moaners said it would never happen and would take many years but in hindsight it is credit to both sides to achieve it in the time frame. Overall 4 years to leave a complicated body and create a new relationship is not that bad in the scheme of things. If Mrs May had not made such a shocking mess it could have been half that time. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 26 Dec 20 2.59pm

Another thought I had.

This deal took less than a year to negotiate the moaners said it would never happen and would take many years but in hindsight it is credit to both sides to achieve it in the time frame.

Overall 4 years to leave a complicated body and create a new relationship is not that bad in the scheme of things. If Mrs May had not made such a shocking mess it could have been half that time.

One more point

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The Dolphin 26 Dec 20 4.05pm
Mrs May did everything she could to try and stop us leaving - she was an absolute disgrace from the moment she called an election that didn't need to be called. The deal will be fine and will evolve as time goes by which is fine. As for Scotland - let them go - they are a drain on UK finances and get rid of them out of Parliament as well. They would go bust without our backup quicker than the French raising a white flag!
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The Dolphin

26 Dec 20 4.05pm

Mrs May did everything she could to try and stop us leaving - she was an absolute disgrace from the moment she called an election that didn't need to be called.
The deal will be fine and will evolve as time goes by which is fine.
As for Scotland - let them go - they are a drain on UK finances and get rid of them out of Parliament as well.
They would go bust without our backup quicker than the French raising a white flag!

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