I am not a regular poster but reading this thread really has got me shaking my head.
Whilst nobody 'knows' for certain what will happen in the event of a brexit (or for that matter any event in the future) any analysis of the economic impact clearly favours an 'in' vote.
A bloomberg survey of economists this morning has found that the risk of a recession in the event of brexit has tripled and 29 of 34 saw sterling slipping below 1.35 versus the dollar.
I am an economist myself and i disagree slightly with the first statement although i do see gdp being reduced by approximately 0.5% per annum in the event of brexit which could tip us into recession, in a low growth environment. I am however much more bearish on sterling and can see it dropping to around 1.10. Whilst i try to remain politically non aligned, when i read people quoting lord lawson (famous for the green shoots of economic spring budget, 3.5m unemployed, worst housing bubble in uk history, record high interest rates and inflation (except 74 oil crisis)) or from what i can see a bunch of political mavericks (Boris, Gove, Farage) who havnt got a single economics qualification between them blindly telling us that we would be better off, i truly shudder.
The fact is that economic downturns or recessions effect everybody but is felt most keenly by tradespeople and small businesses. Taking out 'cheaper' european labour WILL NOT increase wages (only min or living wage Policy can try to schieve that) but it will reduce demand.
When Switzerland (where i lived for 3.5 years) negotiated their free trade agreement they had to give a lot more than they received i.e. they had to allow more foreign labour in, in return for free trade and were much worse off than if they had been full eu members.
The euro is a completely different debate to the brexit debate - the weakness of the euro being that centralised monetary policy will not work for a country if their business cycle is out of step with the rest of the area i.e we could have high interest rates when we need low ones. We shouldnt be distracted by any more misinformation that uses the euro debate as a rationale.
Aside from the frankly overwhelming economic arguments, i quite like thd fact that i and my children have got the right to live and work throughout the eu, i can walk through the blue channel at the airport without having to pay excise duty (nb the Swiss were not given this), that i dont pay a tariff on a new suit from italy or bottle of wine from France purely to protect a domestic business from competition. Remember competition is good for consumers in terms of choices, freedoms and prices.
So whilst the eu is not perfect (but what system is?) We are massively better off being part of it. Please vote 'in'

Less time than it's taken our exports to the EU to fall from 66% to 45%. The crossover where Eu exports hit 49% and exports to the rest of the word hit 51% was in 2008 and as I say, our exports to the EU are now at 45% and still falling.

Why are they falling since 2008? Partly because the rest of the world has more room for expansion and the southern countries in the Eurozone currency and EU are too different, corrupt and manana for it to work.

COYP

Your interest is noted Johnny.

If we're bad mouthing our respective "supporters" can you explain some of your team and their merits?

I'm particularly interested in Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and John Major.

All three are in competition to have been the worst PM's in history and one of them potentially the worst ever Chancellor. Selling Gold at rock bottom prices and declaring an end to boom and bust.... only to find they had only put an end to the boom.

I'm not advocating "Brexit" (God I hate that term) for economic reasons. I agree that for a while there will be a bit of turmoil but we'll be better off in the end.

My reason for leaving is purely about control of immigration and our right to control this and our own laws.

I was born in 1954 and have seen our country deteriorate slowly from over-population at first then overran by immigrants thanks largely to Tony Blair's reckless open door policy.

Our infrastructure cannot cope now and matters will only get worse. As members of the EU we have no way of stopping our population rising exponentially in the future. Cameron's concessions that he "fought hard" to win (lol) will have zero effect on curbing the desire of people to want to come and live here.

A vote to stay in the EU is a kick in the balls to our children and their children who might want to be living a happy life in an uncrowded island. I'll be dead before this happens thankfully.

I take your point hoof but the truth is 'do you want free trade or immigration' because they are are intrinsically linked even if we have brexit as EFTA also demands freedom of labour (degree of which is agreement dependent.) If you are arguing for economic isolation ( i would admire your honesty if you were) then history tells us e.g Devalera's ireland)that we would enter severe economic decline.
Some of the right wing press may print daily stories of our public services being under pressure but the truth is they have always been, but if the economy declines it will get a lot worse. Additionally it seems to me they are trying to spread fear - i went to school during the Thatcher years where class sizes were hitting 40 per class (now limited to 30), but fear of scarcity is good to sell newspapers but can be very misleading in this economic debate.
I wont get into a comparison of political figures ad this usually degenerates into tribalism but just wanted to point out that the political mavericks i have mentioned havnt had a glorious eceonomic past -although i take your point that gordon brown is also tainted by his market timing on gold.

Public services are under pressure due to cuts, and the failure of the state to properly redirect resources obtained through migrant workers via taxation etc into public services.

The truth is that years ago we needed to raise taxation in line with public spending on key services. Instead we had nearly three decades of tax cuts and stealth taxation used to fund those cuts, to get parties re-elected. Labours PFI projects have added to the burden, cheaper in the short term, more expensive in the long term.

We as a nation must learn that nothing is free, everything must be paid for, and the best approach has always been through taxation, if you want the services to be accountable, reliable and resilient.

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