2024 General Election

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2024 General Election

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steeleye20 Croydon 13 Jan 24 8.11pm
There has been no increase in investment growth since 2016 the year of the vote. And precious little in the years after the financial crisis. Investment produces growth, so where can it come from, certainly not the failed private sector, their wealth does not benefit us, but them. After 14 years, if the tory doctrine was correct, then we would not be in the position we are now. The growth figure will probably be contrived somehow to be around 0.5% by the election but its 14 years of economic stagnation and Truss attempt to borrow our way out of it is now not possible. Badly effected by Brexit which is getting worse each year. We muddle through by incessant and hugely expensive borrowing; I think that's the reality.
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steeleye20

Croydon 13 Jan 24 8.11pm

There has been no increase in investment growth since 2016 the year of the vote.

And precious little in the years after the financial crisis.

Investment produces growth, so where can it come from, certainly not the failed private sector, their wealth does not benefit us, but them.

After 14 years, if the tory doctrine was correct, then we would not be in the position we are now.

The growth figure will probably be contrived somehow to be around 0.5% by the election but its 14 years of economic stagnation and Truss attempt to borrow our way out of it is now not possible.

Badly effected by Brexit which is getting worse each year.

We muddle through by incessant and hugely expensive borrowing; I think that's the reality.

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 13 Jan 24 8.12pm
Originally posted by Matov It is and it will. But they must be making all kinds of calculations around that. Firstly, I think the mechanism for taking us back in will be a second referendum which will come about in much the same way that Starmer and co engineered the change in Labours policy on the same matter. There will be a motion passed at the Labour Party conference to hold a rejoin vote and Startmer will proclaim it as just part of the democratic process. Now the issue then comes about passing the Referendum Act that will enable it, and here is why Labour will need a massive majority because a number of its own MP's will object, especially the ones in the Red Wall seats. In fact, I suspect Starmer will make a it a free vote and might even abstain himself or vote against. Then the question its self might even have three options, with one being the status quo, the second being to rejoin the single market with all that entails and the third being a straight forward rejoin. And perhaps all against a frame-work of a pretty strong, at least in terms of perception, EU anti-migration drive that will be offered up as the only way of stopping the illegals turning up on Southern Beachs in that if they cannot reach France in the first place, then the problem goes away. With all of it designed to effectively nullify the backlash. Personally I would hope for a massive boycott of it. What comes after that will be interesting but the rejoin option will invariably be some kind of 'Treaty' that will be virtually impossible to reverse with perhaps even a 20 year minimum clause before it can be revisited. And then....potentially gets interesting. Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 1.34pm) I disagree. I don’t think we will just apply to rejoin, much though I would prefer that. I think we will do things slowly and in stages. Firstly to arrange a better “deal” which removes the obstacles to seamless trade. Then some kind of associate membership. Only when both of those have settled and the EU is ready to divide into inner and outer cores will we rejoin an outer core. Unless I live another 20 years I don’t expect to see the third stage. For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 13 Jan 24 8.12pm

Originally posted by Matov

It is and it will. But they must be making all kinds of calculations around that.

Firstly, I think the mechanism for taking us back in will be a second referendum which will come about in much the same way that Starmer and co engineered the change in Labours policy on the same matter. There will be a motion passed at the Labour Party conference to hold a rejoin vote and Startmer will proclaim it as just part of the democratic process.

Now the issue then comes about passing the Referendum Act that will enable it, and here is why Labour will need a massive majority because a number of its own MP's will object, especially the ones in the Red Wall seats. In fact, I suspect Starmer will make a it a free vote and might even abstain himself or vote against.

Then the question its self might even have three options, with one being the status quo, the second being to rejoin the single market with all that entails and the third being a straight forward rejoin. And perhaps all against a frame-work of a pretty strong, at least in terms of perception, EU anti-migration drive that will be offered up as the only way of stopping the illegals turning up on Southern Beachs in that if they cannot reach France in the first place, then the problem goes away. With all of it designed to effectively nullify the backlash. Personally I would hope for a massive boycott of it.

What comes after that will be interesting but the rejoin option will invariably be some kind of 'Treaty' that will be virtually impossible to reverse with perhaps even a 20 year minimum clause before it can be revisited.

And then....potentially gets interesting.

Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 1.34pm)

I disagree. I don’t think we will just apply to rejoin, much though I would prefer that. I think we will do things slowly and in stages.

Firstly to arrange a better “deal” which removes the obstacles to seamless trade. Then some kind of associate membership. Only when both of those have settled and the EU is ready to divide into inner and outer cores will we rejoin an outer core.

Unless I live another 20 years I don’t expect to see the third stage.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Matov 13 Jan 24 8.18pm
Originally posted by cryrst What would be the difference between the 2 nd and 3rd choices. Are there a lot ? Genuine question. Almost nothing beyond the second option meaning we accept the rules but have no say over them. But its not designed to actually do anything other than shave a few votes off the status quo option. I would guess the single biggest fear they will have around a second vote is the legitimacy of it based on voter numbers. Offer a straight forward binary option once again and any vote for us to rejoin that comes in under the vote tally for the original Leave victory will be rightly scoffed at. They cannot make it a like-for-like vote, hence offering third option or even more. Maybe even some kind of 2 part vote with a run-off. It has to framed a very different kind of referendum than those of 2016. Of course all of this is hyperbole on my part but for the life of me, I cannot arrive at any other conclusion for the Tories, and lets not forget this is the single most successful modern political machine in the world just literally making any and every kind of mistake going. They are simply not that stupid, as much as we want to believe. This f*** up HAS to be deliberate. And the only reason I can see is because of trying to get us back into the EU in a way that keeps them out of the firing line. Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 8.19pm) "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

13 Jan 24 8.18pm

Originally posted by cryrst

What would be the difference between the 2 nd and 3rd choices. Are there a lot ?
Genuine question.

Almost nothing beyond the second option meaning we accept the rules but have no say over them.

But its not designed to actually do anything other than shave a few votes off the status quo option.

I would guess the single biggest fear they will have around a second vote is the legitimacy of it based on voter numbers. Offer a straight forward binary option once again and any vote for us to rejoin that comes in under the vote tally for the original Leave victory will be rightly scoffed at. They cannot make it a like-for-like vote, hence offering third option or even more. Maybe even some kind of 2 part vote with a run-off. It has to framed a very different kind of referendum than those of 2016.

Of course all of this is hyperbole on my part but for the life of me, I cannot arrive at any other conclusion for the Tories, and lets not forget this is the single most successful modern political machine in the world just literally making any and every kind of mistake going. They are simply not that stupid, as much as we want to believe.

This f*** up HAS to be deliberate. And the only reason I can see is because of trying to get us back into the EU in a way that keeps them out of the firing line.

Edited by Matov (13 Jan 2024 8.19pm)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Eden Eagle Kent 14 Jan 24 9.51am
A fair bit of commentary here mentioning the record performance of the stock market since Brexit - for balance I thought it would be better to reflect on the FTSE 250 market which is much more UK centric rather than the FTSE 100 where many of the companies gain their results from global markets but are listed in the UK, for example Shell where only 5% of their profits are UK generated. The performance of the FTSE 250 over the past 5 years has been pretty flat with. 2.31% growth compared to the FTSE 100 9.42% growth over the same period.
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Eden Eagle

Kent 14 Jan 24 9.51am

A fair bit of commentary here mentioning the record performance of the stock market since Brexit - for balance I thought it would be better to reflect on the FTSE 250 market which is much more UK centric rather than the FTSE 100 where many of the companies gain their results from global markets but are listed in the UK, for example Shell where only 5% of their profits are UK generated.

The performance of the FTSE 250 over the past 5 years has been pretty flat with. 2.31% growth compared to the FTSE 100 9.42% growth over the same period.

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Matov 16 Jan 24 8.17am
Originally posted by Eden Eagle The performance of the FTSE 250 over the past 5 years has been pretty flat with. 2.31% growth compared to the FTSE 100 9.42% growth over the same period. It is a fair observation, and whilst I suspect there could be some interesting(?LOL) analysis around the impact of the Covid related quantitive easing measures on those in the FTSE 100 as compared to the 250 along with making comparisons on (as much as possible) a like to like basis say in the German and French equivalents the reality is that the disorder Brexit bought to the financial markets, who had never really factored in a Leave decision, would always have a short term (1-7 year) impact no matter. And whilst it is the great get out of card free card to play in terms of the prediction/forecasting/reading the runes games we like to play, Covid really was a huge disruptor that makes almost everything play second fiddle against it. But should a nations destiny/future really be only predicated against what is good the Stock Market? Can it only be measured is pounds, shillings and pence? However, back to matters in the more immediate. This rebellion against the lastest farce of a vote on Rwanda is interesting. Can Sunak really survive his own deputy leader voting for the amendments he does not support? I had started to be swayed more towards the idea of a November election but given that it is clear the disquiet on the Tory benches is growing by the day, then I am going back to May. I genuinely believe the powers pulling the strings on Sunak would rather crash this Government than see him replaced prior to an election taking place. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

16 Jan 24 8.17am

Originally posted by Eden Eagle

The performance of the FTSE 250 over the past 5 years has been pretty flat with. 2.31% growth compared to the FTSE 100 9.42% growth over the same period.

It is a fair observation, and whilst I suspect there could be some interesting(?LOL) analysis around the impact of the Covid related quantitive easing measures on those in the FTSE 100 as compared to the 250 along with making comparisons on (as much as possible) a like to like basis say in the German and French equivalents the reality is that the disorder Brexit bought to the financial markets, who had never really factored in a Leave decision, would always have a short term (1-7 year) impact no matter. And whilst it is the great get out of card free card to play in terms of the prediction/forecasting/reading the runes games we like to play, Covid really was a huge disruptor that makes almost everything play second fiddle against it.

But should a nations destiny/future really be only predicated against what is good the Stock Market? Can it only be measured is pounds, shillings and pence?

However, back to matters in the more immediate. This rebellion against the lastest farce of a vote on Rwanda is interesting. Can Sunak really survive his own deputy leader voting for the amendments he does not support?

I had started to be swayed more towards the idea of a November election but given that it is clear the disquiet on the Tory benches is growing by the day, then I am going back to May. I genuinely believe the powers pulling the strings on Sunak would rather crash this Government than see him replaced prior to an election taking place.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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steeleye20 Croydon 16 Jan 24 10.34am
The boundaries have been re-drawn in their favour by the tories each time they have been returned. The polls show a big win for Starmer, to be able to do anything meaningful he will need a swing of about 12% so it's not the formality forecast.
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steeleye20

Croydon 16 Jan 24 10.34am

The boundaries have been re-drawn in their favour by the tories each time they have been returned.

The polls show a big win for Starmer, to be able to do anything meaningful he will need a swing of about 12% so it's not the formality forecast.

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Matov 16 Jan 24 6.20pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 The polls show a big win for Starmer, to be able to do anything meaningful he will need a swing of about 12% so it's not the formality forecast. Could be about to get very interesting given the resignations in the last 20 minutes. I genuinely don't see how Sunak does not come under a leadership challenge now. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

16 Jan 24 6.20pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

The polls show a big win for Starmer, to be able to do anything meaningful he will need a swing of about 12% so it's not the formality forecast.

Could be about to get very interesting given the resignations in the last 20 minutes.

I genuinely don't see how Sunak does not come under a leadership challenge now.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Hrolf The Ganger 16 Jan 24 8.13pm
Originally posted by Matov Could be about to get very interesting given the resignations in the last 20 minutes. I genuinely don't see how Sunak does not come under a leadership challenge now. A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out.
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Hrolf The Ganger

16 Jan 24 8.13pm

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Originally posted by Matov

Could be about to get very interesting given the resignations in the last 20 minutes.

I genuinely don't see how Sunak does not come under a leadership challenge now.

A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out.

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Hrolf The Ganger 16 Jan 24 8.17pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 There has been no increase in investment growth since 2016 the year of the vote. And precious little in the years after the financial crisis. Investment produces growth, so where can it come from, certainly not the failed private sector, their wealth does not benefit us, but them. After 14 years, if the tory doctrine was correct, then we would not be in the position we are now. The growth figure will probably be contrived somehow to be around 0.5% by the election but its 14 years of economic stagnation and Truss attempt to borrow our way out of it is now not possible. Badly effected by Brexit which is getting worse each year. We muddle through by incessant and hugely expensive borrowing; I think that's the reality. Absolute cobblers of the highest order. Britain has recovered better from COVID than the EU. That is a fact. The doom mongering was and is baloney. It is just the usual Leftist Britain bashing twaddle that we have all grown used to.
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Hrolf The Ganger

16 Jan 24 8.17pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

There has been no increase in investment growth since 2016 the year of the vote.

And precious little in the years after the financial crisis.

Investment produces growth, so where can it come from, certainly not the failed private sector, their wealth does not benefit us, but them.

After 14 years, if the tory doctrine was correct, then we would not be in the position we are now.

The growth figure will probably be contrived somehow to be around 0.5% by the election but its 14 years of economic stagnation and Truss attempt to borrow our way out of it is now not possible.

Badly effected by Brexit which is getting worse each year.

We muddle through by incessant and hugely expensive borrowing; I think that's the reality.

Absolute cobblers of the highest order.

Britain has recovered better from COVID than the EU. That is a fact.
The doom mongering was and is baloney.

It is just the usual Leftist Britain bashing twaddle that we have all grown used to.

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Stirlingsays 16 Jan 24 8.22pm
Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out. Most of the Conservative MPs are Cameron filtered left and centralists.....So most of them are similar to Sunak. Them putting in someone to the right now would be quite a dishonest ploy, because it isn't their politics. I think the Conservatives are doomed until an election wipe out and the Cameron disease is cured within the party and they start electing actual right wingers again.....merging with Reform or essentially becoming that party and so it's no longer being needed. Considering the mess that Starmer is inevitably going to make of the economy, immigration and running the country......if the Tories look like an actual different party they have a significant chance of getting back in. Edited by Stirlingsays (16 Jan 2024 8.24pm) 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

16 Jan 24 8.22pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out.

Most of the Conservative MPs are Cameron filtered left and centralists.....So most of them are similar to Sunak.

Them putting in someone to the right now would be quite a dishonest ploy, because it isn't their politics.

I think the Conservatives are doomed until an election wipe out and the Cameron disease is cured within the party and they start electing actual right wingers again.....merging with Reform or essentially becoming that party and so it's no longer being needed.

Considering the mess that Starmer is inevitably going to make of the economy, immigration and running the country......if the Tories look like an actual different party they have a significant chance of getting back in.

Edited by Stirlingsays (16 Jan 2024 8.24pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Hrolf The Ganger 16 Jan 24 10.26pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays Most of the Conservative MPs are Cameron filtered left and centralists.....So most of them are similar to Sunak. Them putting in someone to the right now would be quite a dishonest ploy, because it isn't their politics. I think the Conservatives are doomed until an election wipe out and the Cameron disease is cured within the party and they start electing actual right wingers again.....merging with Reform or essentially becoming that party and so it's no longer being needed. Considering the mess that Starmer is inevitably going to make of the economy, immigration and running the country......if the Tories look like an actual different party they have a significant chance of getting back in. Edited by Stirlingsays (16 Jan 2024 8.24pm) Politicians being dishonest. Surely not. We have a government with members who want to completely ignore public opinion in order to uphold a ridiculous, unsustainable and misplaced principle about human rights. Time will surely see them overwhelmed by events. Any party in government will not survive the s***storm that is coming our way if things remain as they are.
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Hrolf The Ganger

16 Jan 24 10.26pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Most of the Conservative MPs are Cameron filtered left and centralists.....So most of them are similar to Sunak.

Them putting in someone to the right now would be quite a dishonest ploy, because it isn't their politics.

Edited by Stirlingsays (16 Jan 2024 8.24pm)

Politicians being dishonest. Surely not.

We have a government with members who want to completely ignore public opinion in order to uphold a ridiculous, unsustainable and misplaced principle about human rights.

Time will surely see them overwhelmed by events. Any party in government will not survive the s***storm that is coming our way if things remain as they are.

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Matov 17 Jan 24 6.16am
Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out. And precisely why it will not be allowed to happen. Last night is a prime example of why this political car-crash is 100% being stage-managed. The proposed legislation ONLY works if the input of international courts is ignored. Which the amendment in question would have allowed. And it gets defeated by a Conservative Government who have zero intention of doing anything to stop what is happening on the south coast. Which means they get utter wiped out in the next GE. And based on this actual hard-evidence, can only be seen in terms of them wanting this to happen. No other explanation makes any sense. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

17 Jan 24 6.16am

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

A Sunak resignation is the only possible chance the Tories have of saving a total wipe out.

And precisely why it will not be allowed to happen. Last night is a prime example of why this political car-crash is 100% being stage-managed.

The proposed legislation ONLY works if the input of international courts is ignored. Which the amendment in question would have allowed. And it gets defeated by a Conservative Government who have zero intention of doing anything to stop what is happening on the south coast.

Which means they get utter wiped out in the next GE. And based on this actual hard-evidence, can only be seen in terms of them wanting this to happen. No other explanation makes any sense.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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