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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 DanH  SW2 24 Feb 16 2.17pm |
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Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
First of all "Brexit"... FFS that term is a pathetic journo tag! People like Richard Branson were saying we would be in the slow lane of finance, jobs would go etc etc... all a load of baseless lies. Nigel Lawson v Branson etc.... I know where my trust lies. If that could actually be proven then we wouldn't be having this debate. No one knows. It's all guesswork at the moment.
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Kermit8  Hevon 24 Feb 16 2.20pm |
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Originally posted by DanH
If that could actually be proven then we wouldn't be having this debate. No one knows. It's all guesswork at the moment.
Edited by Kermit8 (24 Feb 2016 2.21pm)
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 24 Feb 16 2.21pm |
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Originally posted by dannyh
We arethe strongest economy in the Eurozone, not because we are in it, but because we hold it all togther, if we go Germany and France will be left holding the baby, and we all know how well they get along. Lets just pack it in, and consign the whole Europen ideaoligical utopian fantasy to the history books, it was a good idea (on paper), which is where it should have stayed. I have heard a sneaky one that Prauge is serioulsy rethinking it's inclusion in the whole fiasco. if this vote went to the public today, we'd be out of Europe as soon as they could count the votes. Edited by dannyh (24 Feb 2016 11.23am) At present - That hasn't aways been the case, and it'll probably fluctuate over time etc. I don't necessarily disagree with an exit, but I think that the EU on the whole won't be affected long term by a UK exit, if it can survive in the short term - In fact it may benefit, given the UK has always been more opposed to EU and MEP power. Ultimately, I think even with an exit, we'll remain 'very closely' aligned with the EU and a kind of partial member, like some of the Scandinavian states are. Long term the 'soverignty' gains will probably be outweighed by a reduction in UK influence and power that comes from being part of the worlds largest trade body /entity, but not significantly, as I can see the UK and US becoming much closer in their alignment and possibly even becoming part of the 'Pacific Trade Agreement'. The only real concern is what does an exit actually mean. I think obfuscation on this remains the best argument for staying in. Its clear that many people see an exit from the EU as benefical, but they don't seem to have an explaination of how they see the UK post-EU going forwards.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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| Stuk Top half 24 Feb 16 2.22pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
I think we should help transform the EU rule and have a yearly cap dependent on necessity and how many have left but the aforementioned problems you mentioned will be here to stay what with people getting older, junk food related illnesses, lack of investment in infrastructure and problems in education and housing (lack of building and rent controls) which aren't immigrant related. Brexit will not weave the magic you hope for but will make us economically poorer. You're not allowed to, categorically. Free movement is the one thing they will not budge on, so the only option to control it is to leave. And you can't argue against that. I'd still like your thoughts on change from within and how well it worked for the SPL? A football comparison on a football message board is fairly apt isn't it? Edited by Stuk (24 Feb 2016 2.23pm)
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| Stuk Top half 24 Feb 16 2.26pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
At present - That hasn't aways been the case, and it'll probably fluctuate over time etc. I don't necessarily disagree with an exit, but I think that the EU on the whole won't be affected long term by a UK exit, if it can survive in the short term - In fact it may benefit, given the UK has always been more opposed to EU and MEP power. Ultimately, I think even with an exit, we'll remain 'very closely' aligned with the EU and a kind of partial member, like some of the Scandinavian states are. Long term the 'soverignty' gains will probably be outweighed by a reduction in UK influence and power that comes from being part of the worlds largest trade body /entity, but not significantly, as I can see the UK and US becoming much closer in their alignment and possibly even becoming part of the 'Pacific Trade Agreement'. The only real concern is what does an exit actually mean. I think obfuscation on this remains the best argument for staying in. Its clear that many people see an exit from the EU as benefical, but they don't seem to have an explaination of how they see the UK post-EU going forwards. They're not states and none of them are partial members. Norway isn't one, Sweden and Denmark are but retain their currency like we do.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 24 Feb 16 2.29pm |
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Originally posted by DanH
If that could actually be proven then we wouldn't be having this debate. No one knows. It's all guesswork at the moment. I think the problem stems from people using terms like stronger / weaker, without actually defining what these terms actually mean. To me, it seems like an exit would makes us stronger and weaker in different ways, especially long term. The same goes with sovereignty, over time how would being outside of the EU reflect on the interests of citizens in relation to the state, and the power of the state internationally. This was pretty interesting recently when the conservatives were looking at leaving the EU and European court, the response was simply to replace it with something more or less the same, but British (but in law rights are rights, irrespective of whether they're European or British) - The capacity to suspend them or change them remains exactly the same, almost impossible - as we've seen in the states, the constitutional right is more powerful than the capacity of the state to legislate against it In the short term, I don't think anything will change much. The markets will probably drop, and then recover, as the skittish shift investment, and then return when its clear the UK isn't sinking into the sea of oblivion. The plus side, greater independence, the downside is greater national responsibility. We won't have the responsibility to the EU, but we also won't have the leverage and security that comes with membership.
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| Lyons550 Shirley 24 Feb 16 2.37pm |
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Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
Just like the far left who are scaremongering about the effects of our economy failing if we leave the EU, which is a load of bollocks and was disproven when we didn't adopt the Euro. I don't disagree with you here at all...both sides are scaremongering...which is why its hard to find any sense amongst all the noise. The point I'm making is simply that certain members of society are being awoken from their apathetic slumber based on part of the discussion that needs to be had...not the whole discussion. No more no less. personally i'd like to see more from the London School of economics on the pro's and cons for both votes before I make any decision as to how I may go..
The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World |
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| nickgusset Shizzlehurst 24 Feb 16 3.07pm |
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Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
Just like the far left who are scaremongering about the effects of our economy failing if we leave the EU, which is a load of bollocks and was disproven when we didn't adopt the Euro. When you say the 'far left' do you mean 1 person (if so who?) or a group of people (if so who?) I've seen arguments for both sides on the far left which makes your statement a bit redundant.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 24 Feb 16 3.10pm |
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Originally posted by Stuk
They're not states and none of them are partial members. Norway isn't one, Sweden and Denmark are but retain their currency like we do. Well yes, and no. Norway isn't an EU member, but it is a member of the EEA and EFTA etc. Which is what I think an exit will result in for the UK. We'll 'pick and choose' agreements to belong to. These agreements, are very much in line with EU membership (the EEA allows for Free Movement of people, goods etc). I see any exit ending up with the UK being part of the EEA and EFTA, which I think will disappoint a lot of people long term. Essentially we'll be EU by the back door. It'll be sold as a victory for the people, and result in 'more of the same'. Which will anger me somewhat....
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| Stuk Top half 24 Feb 16 3.36pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Well yes, and no. Norway isn't an EU member, but it is a member of the EEA and EFTA etc. Which is what I think an exit will result in for the UK. We'll 'pick and choose' agreements to belong to. These agreements, are very much in line with EU membership (the EEA allows for Free Movement of people, goods etc). I see any exit ending up with the UK being part of the EEA and EFTA, which I think will disappoint a lot of people long term. Essentially we'll be EU by the back door. It'll be sold as a victory for the people, and result in 'more of the same'. Which will anger me somewhat.... If we sign up to anything with free movement tied in as a caveat, then there's no point having a referendum in the first place. Edit: IF they sign us up to.... Edited by Stuk (24 Feb 2016 3.37pm)
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| davenotamonkey 24 Feb 16 4.35pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
We have the fifth largest economy in the world and we have been part of the common Euro market for many, many decades now. Wonder where we would be if we had voted 'leave' back in 1975? Wonder no more, Kermit! There is data for that: I've indicated where countries are not in the EU, as you seem to think it is the be-all and end-all of trade, life and liberty. The UK grew: You'd need some hard evidence to suggest we would have been a "special case" with respect to these other countries, and wouldn't have been on the same trajectory as them through the decades. What is very evident is that you mix up this "EU trade" thing with the single market, from which (among others outside the EU) Switzerland and Norway do extremely well out of. They pay to trade in? OK! Maybe we should have a similar negotiation then, so long as it remains in our financial interests to do so. I imagine that would be part of the Article 50 negotiation (which I sincerely hope "cast-iron deal-of-the-century" Dave will have no part in) Incidentally, it is extremely disingenuous to suggest a "leave" in the 1975 referendum (of a trading bloc) is in any way equivalent to a "leave" in the 2016 referendum (of the only global trading bloc out of 17 demanding political union in order to be a member).
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| davenotamonkey 24 Feb 16 4.45pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
Edited by Kermit8 (24 Feb 2016 2.21pm) Can you even tell me what the membership of the EU will be in 10 years time? Better than that - how about how much we'll pay in net contributions next year? Or how about how many more measures we will be forced to accept via QVM next year? What will be the net EU immigration for the next 5 years? (good to know for things like schools, hospitals, and moreso recently, prisons) How about whether we'll get stung for another £1.7Bn that we'll emphatically "refuse to pay" and then pile it onto our national debt? You have no idea. To claim that remaining in this ever-integrating political union is anything but "going into the unknown" is a bare-faced lie. A vote for "remain" is as uncertain (likely more so) than Brexit, and is most certainly not the status quo. At least with Brexit, we could kick out those making the stupid mistakes and stupid laws during an election. When did we elect the EU commission?
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