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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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Stirlingsays Flag 06 May 22 2.05pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

There always is in wars. There is a time for analysis and reflection, during which the whole picture can be analysed.

Right now, there is one basic truth that is paramount. Putin invaded his neighbour with the intention of acquiring all, or some of it. He wasn't invited.

All other matters, including how the west behaved prior to the invasion, are secondary and can be put aside until the war is over. The sole focus is on how best to end it safely and not in a way which either increases the likelihood of escalation or simply postpones it, whilst giving Putin the opportunity to refresh his war machine.

Raising the kind of questions you do whilst in the middle of a crisis is a dangerous distraction. It's as silly as the goalkeeper and the defence having a meeting in the centre circle to discuss why they conceded that last goal, whilst the opposition still have possession of the ball.

We need to focus on now, and not on yesterday.

The truth is only dangerous to liars.

What you seem to be suggesting is that no one question the decisions of our elites. It's a regular refrain from you.....until it's a topic like Brexit where you disagree....then you're all about giving your opinion. I might have always disagreed with it but I've never suggested you shouldn't give it.

I would remind you that this country is not at war, there is no 'loose lips sink ships' aspect to this. At the time of the Iraq war there were hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the war....and that was while our troops were actually fighting it. It made zero difference to government policy nor actions.

You are obviously entitled to your opinion but I regard your commentary as hyperbolic in this sense.

Yes, there will come a time where the actions that led up to this will undergo far more criticism than is the case now.....And I imagine that there will still be someone like yourself making the same censorship arguments against it being aired.

Edited by Stirlingsays (06 May 2022 2.07pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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BlueJay Flag UK 06 May 22 3.01pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

If someone is personally directing that at me. Saying that I'm a f***ing coward come and say that to my face. Other words are available. In my view a coward is someone who would suggest physical cowardice from the safety of their keyboard. Anyone can do that.

Edited by Stirlingsays (06 May 2022 5.26am)


It was a general point. I wasn't calling any specific person a 'coward' just an appropriate description of those who want these people to be rendered unarmed from the comfort of their own home. While you apparently do believe that, I'm not sure that inferring that you'd hit someone if they said it in person would really help the Ukranian people a great deal. That's not the kind of arming I had in mind, though I'm sure the Kremlin would appreciate your continued service. For future reference, I'm not remotely concerned about being physical attacked for stating a basic opinion because it creates a very unambigeous situation where it is fair and required to reply in kind to the point where there is an understanding that a repeat isn't the best idea.

Allowing the Ukranian people to defend themselves is not an encouragement of nuclear war. It is an much a wake up call as to what is a realistic 'win' for Putin (as the yes men fall away) and may itself bring about a solution that would not have otherwise be found. Forcing Ukraine into an unarmed situation where they would have to roll over nationally (and the dangerous places that itself could lead for them and others) isn't much of a sure fire solution either. Maybe it is to armchair commanders but we have to have the humility to say that really don't know where either approach will lead or what comes next.

Drunk on his own delusional ideas of their military let us not forget that Putin initially attempted to sweep through the country to the Capital, and so any talk of this being limited or only 'liberating' Donbass etc was nonsense all along. I'm not sure that letting them endlessly push on completely unopposed with ease is the best idea. Time will tell. It's not like we're part of the decision making process. We watch.


Edited by BlueJay (06 May 2022 3.19pm)

 

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 06 May 22 3.04pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

The truth is only dangerous to liars.

What you seem to be suggesting is that no one question the decisions of our elites. It's a regular refrain from you.....until it's a topic like Brexit where you disagree....then you're all about giving your opinion. I might have always disagreed with it but I've never suggested you shouldn't give it.

I would remind you that this country is not at war, there is no 'loose lips sink ships' aspect to this. At the time of the Iraq war there were hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the war....and that was while our troops were actually fighting it. It made zero difference to government policy nor actions.

You are obviously entitled to your opinion but I regard your commentary as hyperbolic in this sense.

Yes, there will come a time where the actions that led up to this will undergo far more criticism than is the case now.....And I imagine that there will still be someone like yourself making the same censorship arguments against it being aired.

Edited by Stirlingsays (06 May 2022 2.07pm)

Why on earth you say some of the nonsense you do is beyond comprehension sometimes. When the timing of any statement can impact the consequences, it can hurt everyone.

Your preoccupation with these mythical "elites" seems to dominate every thought you have. Those charged with taking decisions on our behalf in this crisis, and the others we have faced in recent times, like the pandemic, need our support. I don't like Johnson, but you will recall I supported our Government throughout the pandemic, whilst you, someone much more politically aligned with him than me, did not. There is a time to reflect and learn lessons and there is a time when the cudgels get put away, and we work together.

That's not to deny anyone's right to criticise. It's to suggest there is an appropriate time to do it, and if anything you say doesn't help a situation, then ask yourself whether it should be said.

We are at war. Not a declared one, but one that is very real. It's a war of ideas and principles. A war of support for our friends and allies that, if lost, would have a major impact on us too. A war that will cost us greatly in terms of inflationary pressures and security uncertainties. To deny that is to deny the obvious. People protested over Iraq, where we were directly involved, as is their right. That could have made a difference. Making suggestions about how we should now handle Putin and produce the least bad outcome, seems OK to me. Trying to analyse why we got here, doesn't.

Brexit isn't comparable. It's not a war. It's self-inflicted harm, where the enemy is those inflicting it on us. I am no longer fighting that battle. I am thinking about the future and how it might unfold. Any remarks I make now about Brexit itself are made only in that context.

I don't seek to censor anyone. All I ask is that they ask themselves a simple question. "Does what I am doing help anyone?" If the answer is no, then why do it?

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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BlueJay Flag UK 06 May 22 3.35pm

Zelensky outlines possible peace deal concessions

The Ukrainian president says that he would accept a peace deal in which Russian troops returned to the positions they held the day before the fully-fledged invasion began in February.

When asked by the BBC's Frank Gardner what the "minimum" concession from Russia would be in return for peace, Zelensky responded: "A return of Russian forces to where they were on 23 Feb."

"But for this to happen there needs to be diplomatic dialogue," he added. "From our side, not all the diplomatic bridges have been burnt."

Zelensky did not specifically mention Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014 - but his response signals a willingness to acknowledge Russian control of the peninsula as part of a peace settlement.

It's also not clear what this would mean for the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine's east which have been partly under the control of pro-Russian separatist since 2014 too.


Can't see Putin going for this, but clearly if you give an inch they will take a mile, so within negotiations its a position at least. It's hard to fully 'cave' in a situation where you're still fighting as territory is ripped away by force. I can see why giving too much might be seen as an encouragement of further future pushes. Perhaps there is a sweet spot of acceptance for both sides that falls short of that. Though again if there is, I can't help but think that us helping them stall Russias advances will have been what got us there.

 

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steeleye20 Flag Croydon 06 May 22 3.35pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Putin has certainly studied the international situation closely especially brexit.

That is why Russia is doing so much harm to itself.

 

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BlueJay Flag UK 06 May 22 4.44pm

Sweden says it received U.S. security assurances if it hands in NATO application - [Link]

Sweden has received assurances from the United States that it would receive support during the period a potential application to join NATO is processed by the 30 nations in the alliance, Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in Washington on Wednesday.

Sweden and neighbour Finland stayed out of NATO during the Cold War, but Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine have led the countries to rethink their security policies, with NATO membership looking increasingly likely.

Both countries are concerned they would be vulnerable during an application process, which could take up to a year to be approved by all NATO's members.

"Naturally, I'm not going to go into any details, but I feel very sure that now we have an American assurance," Linde told Swedish TV from Washington after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"However, not concrete security guarantees, those you can only get if you are a full member of NATO," she added.

Linde declined to say what assurances she had received from Blinken.

"They would mean that Russia can be clear that if they direct any kind of negative activities against Sweden, which they have threatened, it would not be something that the U.S. would just allow to happen ... without a response," she said.

 

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BlueJay Flag UK 06 May 22 4.46pm

Amnesty says evidence shows Russian troops committed war crimes near Kyiv - [Link]

KYIV, Ukraine, May 6 (Reuters) - Amnesty International said on Friday there was compelling evidence that Russian troops had committed war crimes, including extrajudicial executions of civilians, when they occupied an area outside Ukraine's capital in February and March.

Civilians also suffered abuses such as "reckless shootings and torture" at the hands of Russian forces during their failed onslaught on Kyiv in the early stages of the invasion launched by the Kremlin on Feb. 24, the rights group said in a report.

"These are not isolated incidents. These are very much part of a pattern wherever Russian forces were in control of a town or a village," Donatella Rovera, Amnesty's senior crisis response adviser, told a news conference in Kyiv.

Information collected by the group "can be used, hopefully, for holding the perpetrators to account, if not today, one day in the future", she said.

Russia, which calls its invasion a "special operation" to disarm Ukraine and protect it from fascists, denies its forces committed abuses. Kyiv and its Western backers say the fascism claim is a false pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression.

 

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Grumbles 06 May 22 8.06pm Send a Private Message to Grumbles Add Grumbles as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Was reading murmerings last night that a Russian frigate was on fire after a neptun missile strike & turns out its probably correct.

Russia is losing ships to a country with no Navy... unbelievable.

Modern frigate, not area coverage AAW, BUT it should have been able to deal with a sub sonic missile.

 

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Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Flag Stoke sub normal 07 May 22 1.07am Send a Private Message to Tim Gypsy Hill '64 Add Tim Gypsy Hill '64 as a friend

Originally posted by Matov


The absolutely one-sided slant on the reporting is eye-opening. Real 'Ministry of Truth' s*** going on.

But the entire war has exposed some utterly bizarre double standards.

On the Left, you have them cheering on the Azov battalion, an openly Neo-Nazi organisation and those of us with a more...not quite sure I would called it a 'pro'....say an open minded slant on Russia and its motives in the odd position of being pleased when Muslim Chechen troops are successful against fellow Europeans. That really hit home with me the other night when I was watching some Russian footage of Chechen troops firing anti-tank weapons at Ukrainian positions, in a ruined European city, on European soil, and giving it all the 'Allah Akbah' spiel.

Something not quite sitting right with me. Like we are ALL being played on one level.

The problem with Chechens is that, broadly, they are religious to a fault. Give them weapons and they will kill 'infidels'. The Russians should be wary of them, as it was Stalin who displaced most of them.

The 'left' cheering for their own demise has always been. It is evidenced countless times.

 


Systematically dragged down by the lawmakers

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Stirlingsays Flag 07 May 22 4.55am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

I said early on in this conflict that I agreed with arming the Ukraine against Russia. I now think I was wrong. Now I agree with Orban that this worsens an already bad situation.

Initially the Ukraine did well against Russia's tactics....which were more geared towards overthrowing the Zelensky regime than they were knocking down cities. However that tactic failed and now its about the east and south of the country where most of the Russia support base is.

The threat of nuclear war has clearly been considerably increased. I think anyone denying that isn't dealing with the reality of the situation.

The Ukraine isn't in Nato but the argument has been made that Russia invading the Ukraine is worth an economic cold war, huge inflation increases, billions of pounds of military equipment into a corrupt country which could later be turned on us, significant nuclear threat increase and essentially keeping a war going instead of serious negotiations that provide realistic solutions.....not de facto unrealistic ones.

As long as those who support these responses remain consistent through the hardship over these months and years then while regarding their view as seriously damaging I will at least respect that this was the hill they were willing to sacrifice on....it just isn't mine.

Treating Putin like a hate figure is not dealing with realpolitik. Again, I have to refer to the Yemen for the huge double standards here. It's like whatever the media direct their attention there is a civilian army quite willing to nod along...even when many of them have openly acknowledged that the same media lies to them whenever it wants.

I'm no fan of Putin, however efforts to unseat him are likely to put us in more danger, not less.

Huge risks being taken on a bad hand in my view.....all or nothing merchants are not wise custodians of civilisation.


Edited by Stirlingsays (07 May 2022 5.16am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Stirlingsays Flag 07 May 22 5.10am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Why on earth you say some of the nonsense you do is beyond comprehension sometimes. When the timing of any statement can impact the consequences, it can hurt everyone.

Your preoccupation with these mythical "elites" seems to dominate every thought you have. Those charged with taking decisions on our behalf in this crisis, and the others we have faced in recent times, like the pandemic, need our support. I don't like Johnson, but you will recall I supported our Government throughout the pandemic, whilst you, someone much more politically aligned with him than me, did not. There is a time to reflect and learn lessons and there is a time when the cudgels get put away, and we work together.

That's not to deny anyone's right to criticise. It's to suggest there is an appropriate time to do it, and if anything you say doesn't help a situation, then ask yourself whether it should be said.

We are at war. Not a declared one, but one that is very real. It's a war of ideas and principles. A war of support for our friends and allies that, if lost, would have a major impact on us too. A war that will cost us greatly in terms of inflationary pressures and security uncertainties. To deny that is to deny the obvious. People protested over Iraq, where we were directly involved, as is their right. That could have made a difference. Making suggestions about how we should now handle Putin and produce the least bad outcome, seems OK to me. Trying to analyse why we got here, doesn't.

Brexit isn't comparable. It's not a war. It's self-inflicted harm, where the enemy is those inflicting it on us. I am no longer fighting that battle. I am thinking about the future and how it might unfold. Any remarks I make now about Brexit itself are made only in that context.

I don't seek to censor anyone. All I ask is that they ask themselves a simple question. "Does what I am doing help anyone?" If the answer is no, then why do it?

You seemed to have moved from your initial view of ensuring that Putin had a realistic 'out' to cheerleader for our current policies...which is to push Russia out of the Ukraine, despite all the escalation and nuclear risks involved in that....plus the fate of all the Russian supporters in the east and south.

Once again there is little I can agree with in your post.

Instead of answering each point in a very long and largely pointless post I'll respond to a point that you make frequently but which I often find totally loony tunes. To quote you:

'Why on earth you say some of the nonsense you do is beyond comprehension sometimes. When the timing of any statement can impact the consequences, it can hurt everyone.'

Much as I have enjoyed Hol over the years, sadly the reality is there aren't political bigwigs clicking on Hol everyday for political advice and views on how to run the country and foreign policy.

I don't know what's going on inside your head but let me inform you that this is a political forum on one of several football forums for Crystal Palace....one football club in an association of hundreds of clubs. It's not Twitter with accounts with millions of followers.

The idea that I should watch what I say out of some concern that it may impact the war in the Ukraine is so ludicrous that the opinion deserves a cage in a zoo to be stared at in disbelief.

Worthy of the blue-anon mantle.


Edited by Stirlingsays (07 May 2022 5.14am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 07 May 22 8.26am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

You seemed to have moved from your initial view of ensuring that Putin had a realistic 'out' to cheerleader for our current policies...which is to push Russia out of the Ukraine, despite all the escalation and nuclear risks involved in that....plus the fate of all the Russian supporters in the east and south.

Once again there is little I can agree with in your post.

Instead of answering each point in a very long and largely pointless post I'll respond to a point that you make frequently but which I often find totally loony tunes. To quote you:

'Why on earth you say some of the nonsense you do is beyond comprehension sometimes. When the timing of any statement can impact the consequences, it can hurt everyone.'

Much as I have enjoyed Hol over the years, sadly the reality is there aren't political bigwigs clicking on Hol everyday for political advice and views on how to run the country and foreign policy.

I don't know what's going on inside your head but let me inform you that this is a political forum on one of several football forums for Crystal Palace....one football club in an association of hundreds of clubs. It's not Twitter with accounts with millions of followers.

The idea that I should watch what I say out of some concern that it may impact the war in the Ukraine is so ludicrous that the opinion deserves a cage in a zoo to be stared at in disbelief.

Worthy of the blue-anon mantle.


Edited by Stirlingsays (07 May 2022 5.14am)

I am fully aware of the limited audience and, in your case, very grateful for that.

Nevertheless, the point is valid. Planting a seed anywhere can grow into a forest. Regrettably, you aren't alone, and small voices, when in chorus with others, can make a lot of noise.

When that noise is distracting and disturbing everyone who encounters it, even in small corners like this one, has the right, and I believe a duty, to put a damper on it and turn the volume down, and with luck, right off.

I don't restrict this kind of comment to here! I make it wherever I encounter it.

When people are ready to listen to your music then is the time to offer it to them.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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