True and is this not some of the problem? No-one really knew that much about the virus before it hit

I like your desire for measurable actuali....though I stated what I thought mattered rather than waffled.

I don't think we can avoid a recession, that's already nailed on. The only question is how long it goes on...and I have my fingers crossed on that. Come on MMT! Pull us out of this mess.

In terms of deaths it depends upon how long before we get a mass produced vaccine.....So any number is going to be guesswork. But if you insist on a number... going with no mass produced vaccine being injected into us until February with given our population denisity and herd immunity I'd estimate around 120,000 deaths..if you're going to head back to work it's reasonably independent of what route you took (excepting successful early and permanent lockdown).

Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Apr 2020 3.23pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Lockdown was primarily about spreading out the deaths, not reducing them. And we held out longer than a lot of others, keeping schools open in particular.

The harsh realities of new viruses like this are that people will die from them. When people go into hospital they are not going to be treated, merely given more of a chance of staying alive long enough for their own bodies to fight it.

I suspect that ideally, we would have avoided lock-down for a week or two longer because you want it embedded in the community to achieve the 50% plus infection you need for herd immunity to kick in come the second wave in the autumn.

Lets see what happens but until we are past the 2021-2022 winter it is impossible to see who got it right.

But avoiding this disease for most people is counter productive. I concede I am a lunatic on matters like this and perhaps think too coldly but we might have been better off deliberately infecting young healthy people in large numbers whilst forcing the vulnerable to remain behind closed doors.

Also, to put it bluntly, people do die of all sorts of things and we do not stop the cause. Driving for example. How many people die on the roads every year?

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Quite.

Many will just accept what the media and government tell them and a lot...especially the younger...won't even really take much notice of that.

You just hope that most older and vulnerable people are isolating (though in many circumstances that's only going to be partially possible) and that families work-around to help protect them. On the flip side you hope that the young have caught it, as Matov said...despite the government's attempts to stop that.....and that we have already built up a certain level of herd immunity in the population.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Absolutely. But the wider consequences of how the world has reacted to this pandemic are almost beyond comprehension.

An economic back-lash that will probably be the worst crisis the western world has ever faced and I genuinely believe that more lives will cut short because of that than people who will die of this wretched virus.

Just a look at the stats in terms of spikes in unemployment, drops in national GDPs and the huge growth in Government debts are simply eye-watering. And I do not use that term lightly.

There is no VE day moment around this. Even if we come up with a vaccine in the next 12 months, there will be a global tetchiness that will last for the entire decade.

This is one of those tipping points that history is defined by. There is no return to the norm. Perhaps I am guilty of hyperbole but the more I try to take in what is happening, the more wary I become of what lies ahead for us all.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

It traditionally happens with flu as we know....more people's immune systems seem stronger in the summer....probably dealing with less daily pathogen attacks. Maybe the warmer weather isn't as kind to pathogens that are living in vapor.

Here is the current rundown of countries, which contains how the hotter countries are doing.....though outside of the first world you have to wonder on the reliability of the stats....plus as you know countries like China will lie anyway.

[Link]

Edited by Stirlingsays (11 Apr 2020 3.53pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)