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Rudi Hedman Caterham 28 Jul 19 11.44pm | |
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Originally posted by TheBigToePunt
I don't think having a stream of good younger players is inherently better than having a settled core of experienced players. Southampton fans sit there watching an average premier league team, just like us. I'm not sure it means much to them that some of their players will achieve great things for Liverpool later on. Only having experienced players as a small club is unsustainable because it’ll catch up with you and you will end up being one of the 3 worst teams when it does. The money runs out after however many years of paying for experience, you lose the edge you had, or some players all leave on free transfers or get crocked at the same time and you can’t afford to deal with it. It’s alsay been this way. The top clubs can afford it, but we can’t operate as a top club. The wage bill tells you we have been, but down where we are you have to develop players and sell them on, as we did with Bolasie, Zaha to Man U before that and Clyne before that. We and Parish lucked out on AWB and hopefully that’s one step to turning a corner, because even if it is used to pay back owner loans, it could mean money is available in future windows that wouldn’t have been. It’s also meant that Parish can be stronger vs bids for Zaha. There is a long road to sorting this out or the alternative is adding to it and if we do get relegated it could be really damaging or limiting to any revival.
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Eaglecoops CR3 29 Jul 19 7.50am | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Only having experienced players as a small club is unsustainable because it’ll catch up with you and you will end up being one of the 3 worst teams when it does. The money runs out after however many years of paying for experience, you lose the edge you had, or some players all leave on free transfers or get crocked at the same time and you can’t afford to deal with it. It’s alsay been this way. The top clubs can afford it, but we can’t operate as a top club. The wage bill tells you we have been, but down where we are you have to develop players and sell them on, as we did with Bolasie, Zaha to Man U before that and Clyne before that. We and Parish lucked out on AWB and hopefully that’s one step to turning a corner, because even if it is used to pay back owner loans, it could mean money is available in future windows that wouldn’t have been. It’s also meant that Parish can be stronger vs bids for Zaha. There is a long road to sorting this out or the alternative is adding to it and if we do get relegated it could be really damaging or limiting to any revival. Excellent post Rudi, spot on.
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TheBigToePunt 29 Jul 19 11.02am | |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Only having experienced players as a small club is unsustainable because it’ll catch up with you and you will end up being one of the 3 worst teams when it does. The money runs out after however many years of paying for experience, you lose the edge you had, or some players all leave on free transfers or get crocked at the same time and you can’t afford to deal with it. It’s alsay been this way. The top clubs can afford it, but we can’t operate as a top club. The wage bill tells you we have been, but down where we are you have to develop players and sell them on, as we did with Bolasie, Zaha to Man U before that and Clyne before that. We and Parish lucked out on AWB and hopefully that’s one step to turning a corner, because even if it is used to pay back owner loans, it could mean money is available in future windows that wouldn’t have been. It’s also meant that Parish can be stronger vs bids for Zaha. There is a long road to sorting this out or the alternative is adding to it and if we do get relegated it could be really damaging or limiting to any revival. There's logic to what you say, but I find the alternative convincing. 1. It's a fine line between a young team with sell on potential and one which just isn't good enough for the challenge here and now. That line is too fine for safety. West Ham had probably the last great generation of home grown talent when a side with ferdinand, lampard, Carrick, defoe, Cole and Johnson got them relegated. All the sell on value in the world doesn't matter then. Southampton have produced more than anyone recently and have been incredibly lucky to stay up at least twice. The idea that they have any sort of model is highly questionable. They've had absentee owners who have somehow got away with cashing in at every opportunity. 2. A selling club is a feeder club is a club without pride. Players like Mane, Pelle and Van Dyke performed for Southampton when it suited them. Then when they didn't get a transfer they wanted they literally went on strike. Newcastle had the same issue when Pardew built a great side up there. Ba, Cisse, Cabeye and Tiote (rip) all threw their toys out in a major way when they decided it was time to move on and up. They decided by the way, not the club. The leading players in the dressing room all on strike, or at least sympathetic to those who were. You know why? Because it went with the culture. Using the place as a stepping stone becomes the only reason anyone is there. Nobody cares beyond that, and everyone knows it. 3. Experienced players are actually pretty cheap. We got Tompkins and Kouyaté for about 10m each. Dann for a couple of million. Bournemouth spent double that on ide and Solanke just because of the 'brand' - young, English and from the academy of a big club. Both are currently looking useless. It's like anyone under 21 might be the new Pele and anyone over 26 is just a dead weight. Sometimes the lower the sell on value the cheaper the player.
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bexleydave Barnehurst 29 Jul 19 11.09am | |
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Originally posted by TheBigToePunt
There's logic to what you say, but I find the alternative convincing. 1. It's a fine line between a young team with sell on potential and one which just isn't good enough for the challenge here and now. That line is too fine for safety. West Ham had probably the last great generation of home grown talent when a side with ferdinand, lampard, Carrick, defoe, Cole and Johnson got them relegated. All the sell on value in the world doesn't matter then. Southampton have produced more than anyone recently and have been incredibly lucky to stay up at least twice. The idea that they have any sort of model is highly questionable. They've had absentee owners who have somehow got away with cashing in at every opportunity. 2. A selling club is a feeder club is a club without pride. Players like Mane, Pelle and Van Dyke performed for Southampton when it suited them. Then when they didn't get a transfer they wanted they literally went on strike. Newcastle had the same issue when Pardew built a great side up there. Ba, Cisse, Cabeye and Tiote (rip) all threw their toys out in a major way when they decided it was time to move on and up. They decided by the way, not the club. The leading players in the dressing room all on strike, or at least sympathetic to those who were. You know why? Because it went with the culture. Using the place as a stepping stone becomes the only reason anyone is there. Nobody cares beyond that, and everyone knows it. 3. Experienced players are actually pretty cheap. We got Tompkins and Kouyaté for about 10m each. Dann for a couple of million. Bournemouth spent double that on ide and Solanke just because of the 'brand' - young, English and from the academy of a big club. Both are currently looking useless. It's like anyone under 21 might be the new Pele and anyone over 26 is just a dead weight. Sometimes the lower the sell on value the cheaper the player. What an articulate and well argued post.
Bexley Dave Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ******* thing! "The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum) |
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 29 Jul 19 12.59pm | |
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Originally posted by bexleydave
What an articulate and well argued post. Yes, but doing only one isn’t the way to go. I’ve always said that it has to be a combination of the 2 or more. If these experienced heads were so available at attractive prices then as that’s how we do things, we would’ve had this Prem survival business wrapped up without any issues whatsoever. However it isn’t that easy and you get higher wage demands, clubs raising the price due to higher demand if this was so successful. We now have an ageing team with several having no sell on value. The answer really is finding players in places and areas where the demand is lower, or relatively lower. It’s been that way for a few decades now since Wenger brought in French and Dutch players, then there was the influx of African and East European players, then South American. That takes thinking outside of the box, some knowledge and ability in carrying out these searches. Something we lack. We can’t even do it in our own country and have therefore flicked through the Prem panini album. I remember when we were in the championship I heard the instruction from Parish was to sign under 24’s or something. Well as mistakes have been made and we’ve become more desperate following these mistakes, we’ve gone for the high wage guaranteed fix but eventually the funds run out. Hopefully Meyer might finally be one to break our usual. Edited by Rudi Hedman (29 Jul 2019 1.00pm)
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Eaglecoops CR3 29 Jul 19 1.40pm | |
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Originally posted by TheBigToePunt
There's logic to what you say, but I find the alternative convincing. 1. It's a fine line between a young team with sell on potential and one which just isn't good enough for the challenge here and now. That line is too fine for safety. West Ham had probably the last great generation of home grown talent when a side with ferdinand, lampard, Carrick, defoe, Cole and Johnson got them relegated. All the sell on value in the world doesn't matter then. Southampton have produced more than anyone recently and have been incredibly lucky to stay up at least twice. The idea that they have any sort of model is highly questionable. They've had absentee owners who have somehow got away with cashing in at every opportunity. 2. A selling club is a feeder club is a club without pride. Players like Mane, Pelle and Van Dyke performed for Southampton when it suited them. Then when they didn't get a transfer they wanted they literally went on strike. Newcastle had the same issue when Pardew built a great side up there. Ba, Cisse, Cabeye and Tiote (rip) all threw their toys out in a major way when they decided it was time to move on and up. They decided by the way, not the club. The leading players in the dressing room all on strike, or at least sympathetic to those who were. You know why? Because it went with the culture. Using the place as a stepping stone becomes the only reason anyone is there. Nobody cares beyond that, and everyone knows it. 3. Experienced players are actually pretty cheap. We got Tompkins and Kouyaté for about 10m each. Dann for a couple of million. Bournemouth spent double that on ide and Solanke just because of the 'brand' - young, English and from the academy of a big club. Both are currently looking useless. It's like anyone under 21 might be the new Pele and anyone over 26 is just a dead weight. Sometimes the lower the sell on value the cheaper the player. Whilst some of your points are valid, nobody has suggested that we need a young team. We need to be introducing young players to mix with the senior players. Some will shine and and attract bids, others will become solid pros who might want to stay with us longer. As Rudi said, the seasoned pros have no sell on value and if a whole bunch of them come to the end of their contracts/careers at the same time then you are in trouble as there will never be sufficient cash in the bank to go buy possibly 5/6 players. In an ideal world we should be looking to bring on or buy 2 or 3 youngsters per year. Hopefully out of such a policy we should look to sell maybe 1 or 2 per year at a profit as they develop or replace some of the older players. In a way both you and Rudi are correct but it has to be a mix and it is our poor performance at finding decent young players at lower prices that is killing us.
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Master Coin 29 Jul 19 4.19pm | |
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Originally posted by TheBigToePunt
There's logic to what you say, but I find the alternative convincing. 1. It's a fine line between a young team with sell on potential and one which just isn't good enough for the challenge here and now. That line is too fine for safety. West Ham had probably the last great generation of home grown talent when a side with ferdinand, lampard, Carrick, defoe, Cole and Johnson got them relegated. All the sell on value in the world doesn't matter then. Southampton have produced more than anyone recently and have been incredibly lucky to stay up at least twice. The idea that they have any sort of model is highly questionable. They've had absentee owners who have somehow got away with cashing in at every opportunity. 2. A selling club is a feeder club is a club without pride. Players like Mane, Pelle and Van Dyke performed for Southampton when it suited them. Then when they didn't get a transfer they wanted they literally went on strike. Newcastle had the same issue when Pardew built a great side up there. Ba, Cisse, Cabeye and Tiote (rip) all threw their toys out in a major way when they decided it was time to move on and up. They decided by the way, not the club. The leading players in the dressing room all on strike, or at least sympathetic to those who were. You know why? Because it went with the culture. Using the place as a stepping stone becomes the only reason anyone is there. Nobody cares beyond that, and everyone knows it. 3. Experienced players are actually pretty cheap. We got Tompkins and Kouyaté for about 10m each. Dann for a couple of million. Bournemouth spent double that on ide and Solanke just because of the 'brand' - young, English and from the academy of a big club. Both are currently looking useless. It's like anyone under 21 might be the new Pele and anyone over 26 is just a dead weight. Sometimes the lower the sell on value the cheaper the player. Neither strategy is truly 'sustainable' over a long period of time. Which is precisely why the premier league ever-present list is only 6 teams (the top 6 less City plus Everton). Which in reality means basically every team in the league from 7 downwards has traditionally run the risk of relegation any given season (despite what Parish may think about how polishing Selhurst might make us a "stable PL club"). Unfortunately it seems that Everton and Wolves both now have megabucks owners and so I foresee a shift towards 8 "guaranteed safe" teams (top 6 plus these two). Which is bad news for us as we're now battling to avoid being 3/12 instead of 3/14. Edited by Master Coin (29 Jul 2019 4.19pm)
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Midlands Eagle 29 Jul 19 4.37pm | |
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Originally posted by Master Coin
Unfortunately it seems that Everton and Wolves both now have megabucks owners and so I foresee a shift towards 8 "guaranteed safe" teams (top 6 plus these two). Which is bad news for us as we're now battling to avoid being 3/12 instead of 3/14. The answer seems to be fairly obvious then if we want to make it a top 9
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Rudi Hedman Caterham 29 Jul 19 5.43pm | |
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Originally posted by Master Coin
Neither strategy is truly 'sustainable' over a long period of time. Which is precisely why the premier league ever-present list is only 6 teams (the top 6 less City plus Everton). Which in reality means basically every team in the league from 7 downwards has traditionally run the risk of relegation any given season (despite what Parish may think about how polishing Selhurst might make us a "stable PL club". Unfortunately it seems that Everton and Wolves both now have megabucks owners and so I foresee a shift towards 8 "guaranteed safe" teams (top 6 plus these two). Which is bad news for us as we're now battling to avoid being 3/12 instead of 3/14. Edited by Master Coin (29 Jul 2019 4.19pm) But the right mix and not just 1 will keep you there longer.
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TheBigToePunt 29 Jul 19 6.16pm | |
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Thanks all for continuing this interesting discussion. I'm not advocating a strict policy of only signing senior players, although we could debate whether that might actually be a good idea. I was simply arguing against the idea of a preference for younger ones where that preference comes from resale value rather than whether they are part of the very strongest 11 we can arrange right now. The really notable thing is that a few of you feel we should have a 'transfer strategy'. I question that such a thing can actually exist. We aren't Man City. We will always need to be flexible and responsive in the short term to what the team needs right now, because that only has to go wrong a tiny bit and the whole thing crumbles. Our experience in this league has shown that the greatest need is often unexpected until the time, and can't really be planned for two or three years in advance. Apart from the mad trolley dash straight after promotion the club has actually done a good job of targeted signings to strengthen the team where it was weakest at the time. That is the only 'strategy' worth worrying about as far as I can see. Always has been and always will be. If the solution to today's problem happens to be a kid in our youth team then that's great, and the club have put a massive effort in to the academy to increase the chances of that happening, but the idea that instead of starting out by saying 'We need a new left back, who is the best one we can get for the budget' we would sit there and say 'Never mind what the team needs, the squad doesn't have enough resale value so let's go and get the best player we can who is under 20' is dangerously overthinking it. This resale value idea has taken grip to such an extent that as I said in an earlier post, any player under 20 has an artificially high value now anyway. The whole of Western Europe is scouring every part of Africa, Eastern Europe and wherever else looking for players now. There is no untapped market. We aren't failing to think hard enough about it, it's just not the great idea it might once have been, and that's without the fact that you'll always end up with far more misses than hits. As has been correctly pointed out, we start every year knowing we are one of 12 to 14 sides who might end up in the bottom three, and the margins are too tight to take a single liberty. The idea that we might sign anyone other than the best available option to give the team what it needs right now is almost negligence. If we hadn't signed Dann, Puncheon, Cabeye, McArthur, Tompkins, PVA, Sakho and even Benteke then we'd have gone down.
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est1905 29 Jul 19 6.21pm | |
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Originally posted by grumpymort
Had Big Sam not pushed for those Jan signings we would of been relegated it's that simple. Why should you need people that care about the club you don't it's the same with any job you are their to do that job and get paid for it. Again same as any job you advance that is how it should be you are just presuming they would spend lots of money and leave the club in trouble which is false and shows you know nothing about both those men they are not Harry. This is also towards TheBigToePunt comment. Roy isn't asking for anything you can tell the manner he has he doesn't want to be involved in this stuff so he just will let the likes of Dougie go out and then tell Roy whats on offer this for me is wrong Roy should be more hands on this is what Pullis and Big Sam was doing which I don't think SP liked that he wants bargain basement people. We have needed many players for years even last year we was all saying much bring in 5-6 did we no the season before 4-5 no again this is why the squad is so short of talent. Wilf wont go without something being sorted even if it's loan deal for someone still plenty of time to go we always do business last two days of the window so we should all just wait until then. Some one mentioned some lower league teams bringing in lot of players well yes Northampton do this all the time that place relies on loans and players going they bring players in its stepping stone and very toxic place. Edited by grumpymort (28 Jul 2019 10.28pm) You talk complete rubbish. If we had a Championship squad we'd be in the Championship wouldn't we. Pulis was/is a chancer. Allardyce probably has more professionalism and commitment to a job but both are out for No.1 with little regard for their employers or the business model's future success.
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Painter Croydon 29 Jul 19 6.46pm | |
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Originally posted by TheBigToePunt
Thanks all for continuing this interesting discussion. I'm not advocating a strict policy of only signing senior players, although we could debate whether that might actually be a good idea. I was simply arguing against the idea of a preference for younger ones where that preference comes from resale value rather than whether they are part of the very strongest 11 we can arrange right now. The really notable thing is that a few of you feel we should have a 'transfer strategy'. I question that such a thing can actually exist. We aren't Man City. We will always need to be flexible and responsive in the short term to what the team needs right now, because that only has to go wrong a tiny bit and the whole thing crumbles. Our experience in this league has shown that the greatest need is often unexpected until the time, and can't really be planned for two or three years in advance. Apart from the mad trolley dash straight after promotion the club has actually done a good job of targeted signings to strengthen the team where it was weakest at the time. That is the only 'strategy' worth worrying about as far as I can see. Always has been and always will be. If the solution to today's problem happens to be a kid in our youth team then that's great, and the club have put a massive effort in to the academy to increase the chances of that happening, but the idea that instead of starting out by saying 'We need a new left back, who is the best one we can get for the budget' we would sit there and say 'Never mind what the team needs, the squad doesn't have enough resale value so let's go and get the best player we can who is under 20' is dangerously overthinking it. This resale value idea has taken grip to such an extent that as I said in an earlier post, any player under 20 has an artificially high value now anyway. The whole of Western Europe is scouring every part of Africa, Eastern Europe and wherever else looking for players now. There is no untapped market. We aren't failing to think hard enough about it, it's just not the great idea it might once have been, and that's without the fact that you'll always end up with far more misses than hits. As has been correctly pointed out, we start every year knowing we are one of 12 to 14 sides who might end up in the bottom three, and the margins are too tight to take a single liberty. The idea that we might sign anyone other than the best available option to give the team what it needs right now is almost negligence. If we hadn't signed Dann, Puncheon, Cabeye, McArthur, Tompkins, PVA, Sakho and even Benteke then we'd have gone down. The Academy is an interesting subject, as however much you invest, there is no guarantee of success. All the big clubs are scouting all over the world for kids as young as 8-9 years old, then offering them the big dream, in reality many fall by the wayside and never make it.
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