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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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Stirlingsays Flag 29 Apr 22 7.36am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Forest Hillbilly

I heard some well-regarded economists on the radio last week. They were discussing inflation and faltering supply issues in the UK.
They stated unanimously that the UK economy was showing signs of failure well before Covid and Ukraine started, and that both Covid and Ukraine were being used as a cover for Government economic failures.
Maybe their opinion was biased.

It's definitely true that covid is a significant part of it....well policy towards covid anyway.....What the breakdown between that and this war I suppose can be debated. As a commoner I just look at my food and other bills.

I'm not looking forward to what's coming......I'm seeing no serious efforts being made for peace....just a hell of a lot of weapon sales and doubling down.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 7.36am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 29 Apr 22 9.30am Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Does Russia interfere internationally? Sure, do western intelligence agencies interfere internationally? Definitely. Both were up to their necks in the Ukraine doing that....the corruption there is actually a bit shocking.

However, is any of this truthfully relayed?

Are any of their actions based upon a greater good? In my view much of it is questionable, whether it's Russia or anyone else. These agencies are the heavies for their states....performing dirty works for the aims of their regimes....sometimes counter productively.

I tell you what Wisbech, I'll prefer to listen to both sides before making my own mind up on an issue.....As it's done in the courts. Similar to the court situation both sides lie.....and I can be fooled just as much as anyone else.....However, at least it can be said that I'm not just listening to one side and swallowing it whole and I'll carry on being sceptical of both.

I have bias and it's always going to be for the west. However, I have an even bigger bias towards getting as close to a balanced truth as possible.....for example Wisbech I bet you didn't know that Russian fossil fuel revenues are much higher than before the war...probably why they can afford to selectively cut supply....or that the ruble is now at pre-war levels....Is this pro Russian misinformation? Or were these fossil fuel stats reported in the Guardian two days ago? Are you actually interested in what's true? Or rather what you just want to be true?
[Link]

Their inflation is reducing in pace just as ours continues to rocket.....ever stop to ask yourself why you don't know that? I criticise policies that don't work....and economic sanctions that hurt us and the world's vulnerable just as much...In my view it's the work of low quality elites doubling down on a general bad hand from the start.

You can carry on with your marketing and sales approach to the truth....you know that honourable ex profession of yours.

I understand that's for you but it isn't for me.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 7.06am)

Of course, both sides fight. That's what happens in a war, even undeclared ones. For years, though, some people wanted to deny that Russia was interfering and were behaving as 5th columnists within their own countries.

I know that our intelligence services are active and that what they do won't be publicised. That's not fooling anyone! That's just the nature of secret services. To compare that with what the Russians are doing in plain sight is ridiculous. We aren't shelling tower blocks in Moscow are we?

I also know the ruble has recovered. Primarily by manipulation and demands that oil and gas be paid for in it. It's a short-term effect which will have the long-term effect of stiffening and advancing the western determination to rid themselves of a reliance on Russia as a supplier. That kind of information doesn't make the headlines when people are dying, and cities flattened. It gets covered, but in the specialist columns.

This will turn out to be a massive miscalculation by Putin, who didn't expect the Ukrainians to resist as they have or the west to show the resolve thay have.

 


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BlueJay Flag UK 29 Apr 22 10.11am

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

This will turn out to be a massive miscalculation by Putin, who didn't expect the Ukrainians to resist as they have or the west to show the resolve thay have.

People act like peace is solely the responsibility of the invaded and those who are not happy to see what would likely amount to genocide, or at minimum significant civilian death (and human trafficking to Russia) if left unchecked. The Russian invasion was broad and clearly meant as much more than a reply to any considered or imagined disputed area. There could be peace tomorrow if Russia decided on it. The ball is largely in their court as there are clearly no firm limits to their intentions or barbarity, and unfortunately at this stage they cannot be trusted as far as thrown, which is not the best starting point for meaningful negotiations.

I'm certainly for peace, but not appeasement and laying down of arms to a point that amounts to encouragement of the barbarity we see. In large part those with that perspective have fast loosening allegiances to the West (due to valid government dislike and not so valid detachments from their neighbour, community, society..) so are excessively and easily influenced by West hostile foreign media. I have no issue whatsoever with a healthy skepticism towards my own media and government - indeed that's precisely where I sit - but it's within wide yet normal, healthy and rational bounds.

Edited by BlueJay (29 Apr 2022 10.48am)

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 29 Apr 22 5.21pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Of course, both sides fight. That's what happens in a war, even undeclared ones. For years, though, some people wanted to deny that Russia was interfering and were behaving as 5th columnists within their own countries.

I know that our intelligence services are active and that what they do won't be publicised. That's not fooling anyone! That's just the nature of secret services. To compare that with what the Russians are doing in plain sight is ridiculous. We aren't shelling tower blocks in Moscow are we?

I also know the ruble has recovered. Primarily by manipulation and demands that oil and gas be paid for in it. It's a short-term effect which will have the long-term effect of stiffening and advancing the western determination to rid themselves of a reliance on Russia as a supplier. That kind of information doesn't make the headlines when people are dying, and cities flattened. It gets covered, but in the specialist columns.

This will turn out to be a massive miscalculation by Putin, who didn't expect the Ukrainians to resist as they have or the west to show the resolve thay have.

That's a reasonable response and point of view. Obviously I differ on some points but that's fine.

I'd just make the point that, while we might not be shelling Moscow now (I'd imagine most of us would be dead before it got to that...including most in Moscow) we certainly have politicians recommending attack on Russia soil.....literally putting everyone in danger.

I'll make the point that it's sad to say that the west have certainly knocked down many many apartment blocks.....We basically flattened cities in Iraq, we have done much worse than Russia in our time....and that's no defence of Russia who don't give a damn either. That's just a recognition that there are no clean hands here.

The excuses and justifications given then are much as what the Russians give now.....if they even cover it at all, it's because....it's a stray missile or part...or it's site that is being used as an ammo site or headquarters or attacks are coming from there....is any of it ever true or an actual justification?...I'm just glad I'm never involved in decisions that kill people.

I remember Blair ok'ed the attack on broadcast journalists in Serbia, killing sixteen if I remember correctly...in that case justifying bombing journalists just becomes another excuse....as saying because some kind of regime work is done by broadcasting its view instead of ours it's ok to kill them.....A view that basically justifies killing any civilian who disagrees.

Your first paragraph is interesting because it brings up the point of why we are here and the actual attitudes of these competing power structures and the point of 'undeclared wars'....and whether they actually have the support of their populations. It illustrates my wider point of the wrong approach to Russia for decades.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 5.55pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Stirlingsays Flag 29 Apr 22 5.51pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

I'm hearing Poland has supplied Ukraine with about 200 tanks.....all the caution of early Nato responses to this war seem to have gone and now all I'm seeing are massive risks of escalation.

People have been openly supporting Nato entering this war and that looks like it's effectively happening. This could escalate with Belarus entering the war....It seems that no one will be satisfied until a nuke or nukes are used.

I see no serious calls for peace.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 5.53pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Matov Flag 29 Apr 22 7.25pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

[Link]

Russian rouble is doing well. But what about sanctions? LOL. No Russian will be cold come the following winter. No Russian will be hungry come the following winter.


Edited by Matov (29 Apr 2022 7.26pm)

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Ouzo Dan Flag Behind you 29 Apr 22 8.11pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Russian State TV (almost daily) continues to talk up the use of Nuclear Weapons against Western targets.

What people need to understand is just like in China, Russian State TV is the mouthpiece of the Kremlin, its a way for Putin to say publically what he is thinking.

The Polish government are so nervous of a Nuclear strike they have split their government up into different parts of the country so if they're targeted they will still have a functional government.

Russia also seems to think it can win a Nuclear war

I actually think these mad c***s are going to lob one at a target in Ukraine.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (29 Apr 2022 8.13pm)

Edited by Ouzo Dan (29 Apr 2022 8.19pm)

 


The mountains are calling & I must go.

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Stirlingsays Flag 29 Apr 22 8.54pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Russian State TV (almost daily) continues to talk up the use of Nuclear Weapons against Western targets.

What people need to understand is just like in China, Russian State TV is the mouthpiece of the Kremlin, its a way for Putin to say publically what he is thinking.

The Polish government are so nervous of a Nuclear strike they have split their government up into different parts of the country so if they're targeted they will still have a functional government.

Russia also seems to think it can win a Nuclear war

I actually think these mad c***s are going to lob one at a target in Ukraine.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (29 Apr 2022 8.13pm)

Agreed.

Russia have low yield nuclear weapons and I can see one of these being used in the Ukraine if Putin wants to keep his gains but feels under pressure. That then has the high potential for starting a chain reaction that ends all of us. I was posting about this weeks ago. As much as invading the Ukraine was an escalation....it's not even in the same ballpark.

With idiots like Truss saying she wants to push Russia out of Ukraine that would be a complete loss for Putin....with this being an existential war for them the potential for utter disaster is being played with like it doesn't actually matter.

Egos could see millions of dead here, which could end up being us as well. None of these idiots seem to want to stop and think about whether playing with fecking existence is worth it.


Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 8.57pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Ouzo Dan Flag Behind you 29 Apr 22 9.37pm Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Agreed.

Russia have low yield nuclear weapons and I can see one of these being used in the Ukraine if Putin wants to keep his gains but feels under pressure. That then has the high potential for starting a chain reaction that ends all of us. I was posting about this weeks ago. As much as invading the Ukraine was an escalation....it's not even in the same ballpark.

With idiots like Truss saying she wants to push Russia out of Ukraine that would be a complete loss for Putin....with this being an existential war for them the potential for utter disaster is being played with like it doesn't actually matter.

Egos could see millions of dead here, which could end up being us as well. None of these idiots seem to want to stop and think about whether playing with fecking existence is worth it.


Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 8.57pm)

I do fear the only way we'll see wholesale change in Russia is to fully conquer it much like the allies did with Germany, to concede land in Ukraine will just see them return in a few years to take another chunk for itself.
Yes I see how mad and unachievable that is but Russia is doing Russia, I also acknowledge that the West have played their part in all of this.

See this interview with Yanis Varoufakis,
[Link]

Whilst I disagree that Putin is looking for an off ramp, he does make some excellent points, the part about Russian men life expectancy dropping was an eye opener for me.

China plans to establish a military base in the Solomon Islands which will pretty much guarantee war in the region.

Were about to have a global food shortage, Biden has spoken about famines, its something like 3 days of people going hungry before you have chaos, We are going to see resource wars break out all over the world.

The world is honestly going mad.

 


The mountains are calling & I must go.

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Stirlingsays Flag 29 Apr 22 9.57pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

I do fear the only way we'll see wholesale change in Russia is to fully conquer it much like the allies did with Germany, to concede land in Ukraine will just see them return in a few years to take another chunk for itself.

I agree with your post, the only part I'd differ with is here.

An invasion of Russia would obviously mean nuclear war. That's plain in their descriptions for nuclear usage.

In terms of concern for incremental invasion at a later date. Any peace deal could see this addressed. For example, if Russia reinvaded it could be stated that Poland automatically takes security for Polish heritage parts of Ukraine and effectively at that point you have a Nato/Russia official war.

However, at this point the fruitcakes are effectively doing a limited version of this right now.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 29 Apr 22 10.05pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm hearing Poland has supplied Ukraine with about 200 tanks.....all the caution of early Nato responses to this war seem to have gone and now all I'm seeing are massive risks of escalation.

People have been openly supporting Nato entering this war and that looks like it's effectively happening. This could escalate with Belarus entering the war....It seems that no one will be satisfied until a nuke or nukes are used.

I see no serious calls for peace.

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Apr 2022 5.53pm)

You continue to conflate Nato with countries who are Nato members. Poland sending tanks doesn't involve Nato. It may be Putin wants you to think there is no difference, but there is a very clear, and indisputable line.

Nato itself is not involved. It cannot be, as its purpose is defence.

 


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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 29 Apr 22 10.11pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I agree with your post, the only part I'd differ with is here.

An invasion of Russia would obviously mean nuclear war. That's plain in their descriptions for nuclear usage.

In terms of concern for incremental invasion at a later date. Any peace deal could see this addressed. For example, if Russia reinvaded it could be stated that Poland automatically takes security for Polish heritage parts of Ukraine and effectively at that point you have a Nato/Russia official war.

However, at this point the fruitcakes are effectively doing a limited version of this right now.

Who is going to invade Russia? Ukraine won't. The most it will do is target a few supply chain logistics.

Nato won't. Its sole purpose is defence, and it has no mandate for offensive action.

 


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