Well, I imagine that data for the years 2001 to 2011 on that particular question is out of date as you have had a rush of convictions in recent years.

However for the question being debated here.....as in...what will the population percentage of Muslims be in 2021 the census data is obviously relevant.

My argument hasn't shifted at all, as you should have the grace to admit. If you had read the link to the Telegraph that I posted you might understand my point. They made several very valid observations that support that point, particularly the one stating that in 2050 there will be three times as many people who are in their 90s than there will be births! Older people will form a greater proportion of the population.

The figures I quoted in my post to Stirling are simply extrapolations of statistics from the 2011 census to 2041 if birth rates etc continue at the same rate as they were at that time. But there are three reasons why I believe the percentage of Muslims will not rise as quickly as that.

Firstly, life expectancy has continued to increase, especially for males, and this is likely to continue due to medical innovations and (some) people living healthier lifestyles. There will be many more thousands of older people, proportionally larger in number, making younger ages proportionally smaller. Thus the percentage of Muslims who make up a greater proportion in the younger ages will be proportionally smaller overall too.

Secondly, since 2011 the UK has had a much larger percentage of non-Muslim immigrants than Muslim, a total of over 1 million people. This is a larger number than all Muslim births and Muslim immigrants over the same term. Birth rates for these people are reckoned to be similar to Muslim birth rates. I'm sure I don't have to spell the effect of this out to you.

And thirdly, purely anecdotal, but I don't believe that Muslim birthrate will continue at a 3.1 rate. My wife's parents came to England in the 50s from Guyana.They had eight children, which wasn't uncommon in Guyana, but quite rare in the UK. Three of their children were girls and they have 3,3 and 1 children respectively. The eldest sister had 2 girls and her eldest has one child, the other died before she had any children. The second sister had three boys and my wife has one girl, who is now 20 and hasn't any children yet. This may not be a particularly common example, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that within a generation or two birthrates among the decendents of immigrants are more likely to mirror rates among the general population.

Please don't keep on with your nonsense, you are going to feel very foolish when it dawns on you that I have a valid point.

In loving this new, snipe free hol.

No, people don't count twice on the census for being old, but the point that I thought Hrolf had accepted earlier in the thread is that in recent years the vast majority of immigrants into the UK have been non-Muslim. Stirling posted figures from the 2011 census; the proportion of Muslims in the general population was 4.4%. Since 2011 we have seen a net immigration of non-Muslims of over 1,000,000, mainly from Poland and other European countries.

These are far greater numbers than the combined total of Muslim births and Muslim immigrants over the same period. Hence my assertion that the percentage of Muslims in the UK is around 4% and this is likely to remain so. In fact the percentage of Muslims is more likely to decrease than increase, for reasons I have previously stated. This is compounded by the fact that people are living longer, so Muslim births would have to increase to around 10 per couple to have any appreciable increase in percentages of the population over the next generation, 30 years or so.

So, the numbers of Muslims may increase if the birthrate remains at 3.1 per family, but because the non Muslim population will increase in greater numbers, the percentage of Muslims to the non Muslim population is likely to fall.

The author of the book in the original post is, at the very least, wrong, and his erroneous assumptions are being used by people like Farage the "Pound shop Enoch Powell" and Britain First to stir up hatred and cause division.

Only for you,Tom (nice to see you)

From a review of the book:

"Naked racism may still be unacceptable in polite society. But post-Brexit vote there’s a clear market emerging for a slightly posher, better-read, more respectable way of saying that you’d rather not live next door to Romanians or think Muslims are coming to rape your womenfolk. Think Daily Mail columnist Katie Hopkins, but with longer words, and for people who wouldn’t be seen dead on an English Defence League march – although one of the more ridiculous contentions in this book by the journalist Douglas Murray is that the EDL are actually terribly misunderstood chaps, who have a point, and aren’t really to blame for the way their rallies regularly end in violence."

Clearly Mr Murray is a true sage of our times for (naturally) all objective, unbiased and unprejudiced readers

Edited by legaleagle (04 Dec 2017 9.18pm)