Tide turning

This page is no longer updated, and is the old forum. For new topics visit the New HOL forum.

Tide turning

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Page 2 of 3 < 1 2 3 >

Mr_Gristle In the land of Whelk Eaters 26 Nov 17 2.19pm
Originally posted by Dan1994 There's no such thing as luck, only regression to the mean (most of the time). Good example of that being West Ham after finishing 7th or whatever it was. About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-) Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune)
Alert a moderator to this post

Mr_Gristle

In the land of Whelk Eaters 26 Nov 17 2.19pm

Originally posted by Dan1994

There's no such thing as luck, only regression to the mean (most of the time). Good example of that being West Ham after finishing 7th or whatever it was.

About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-)

Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune)

Alert a moderator to this post

stuckinbristol In the woodwork. 26 Nov 17 2.32pm
Well it was bloody lucky Shawcross aint got a left foot, and tried to tap one in with the outside of his right.
Alert a moderator to this post

stuckinbristol

In the woodwork. 26 Nov 17 2.32pm

Send a Private Message to stuckinbristol

Well it was bloody lucky Shawcross aint got a left foot, and tried to tap one in with the outside of his right.

Alert a moderator to this post

crystal-purley Purley 26 Nov 17 2.32pm
Originally posted by PALACE FOR EVER Yes there was some luck in Sakho's goal but we have three players (Sakho, Benteke and Tompkins) in a line in the six yard box with Sakho in the middle, no Stoke player near them with Crouch on the goal line and the keeper no where near as he is positioning himself for Cabaye's shot. Give the players credit for standing where they did, can't be offside because of where Crouch is standing. I remember Ferguson when managing Man Utd saying (something like this) 'It looks like we are luckier than others but the players are good enough to take advantage of any luck going' You could say the better a team is the luckier they seem to be! Gary Player "It's funny how the more I practise the luckier I get". Luck is strange though and using the heads/tails analogy I think most bookies would bet on the seventh and eighth going tails. Enjoying getting up later and not having someone who knows better than me (apart from the missus of course).
Alert a moderator to this post

crystal-purley

Purley 26 Nov 17 2.32pm

Send a Private Message to crystal-purley

Originally posted by PALACE FOR EVER

Yes there was some luck in Sakho's goal but we have three players (Sakho, Benteke and Tompkins) in a line in the six yard box with Sakho in the middle, no Stoke player near them with Crouch on the goal line and the keeper no where near as he is positioning himself for Cabaye's shot. Give the players credit for standing where they did, can't be offside because of where Crouch is standing.

I remember Ferguson when managing Man Utd saying (something like this) 'It looks like we are luckier than others but the players are good enough to take advantage of any luck going'

You could say the better a team is the luckier they seem to be!

Gary Player "It's funny how the more I practise the luckier I get". Luck is strange though and using the heads/tails analogy I think most bookies would bet on the seventh and eighth going tails.

Enjoying getting up later and not having someone who knows better than me (apart from the missus of course).

Alert a moderator to this post

Dan1994 Wallington 26 Nov 17 2.34pm
Originally posted by Mr_Gristle About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-) Well, if you look at our total expected goals (xG), which is basically the total probability of each shot we've taken going in, then we'd actually be 8th in the table. Obviously, there's a lot of context in this, such as being behind by a goal see's us take more shots and I'm not sure what our expected goals per shot is (xG/shot). In the football stats community, it was an absolute mystery how we hadn't scored in the first 6 games. We've also got the shots for/against of a mid table team, so in that sense we have been 'unlucky'. [Link]
Alert a moderator to this post

Dan1994

Wallington 26 Nov 17 2.34pm

Originally posted by Mr_Gristle

About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-)

Well, if you look at our total expected goals (xG), which is basically the total probability of each shot we've taken going in, then we'd actually be 8th in the table.

Obviously, there's a lot of context in this, such as being behind by a goal see's us take more shots and I'm not sure what our expected goals per shot is (xG/shot).

In the football stats community, it was an absolute mystery how we hadn't scored in the first 6 games. We've also got the shots for/against of a mid table team, so in that sense we have been 'unlucky'.

[Link]

Alert a moderator to this post

Username Horsham 26 Nov 17 2.44pm
Originally posted by Aolcpfc No. A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before. It turns because luck is luck- nothing more. Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head. Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come. Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck. Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'. We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions. Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out. Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it. Luck maybe can't be influenced, but you can still increase the odds in your favour, and as a result 'get lucky'. We've scored two 'lucky' goals in two weeks. Both came from scruffy shots (Cabaye this week, RLC last week). You could say we were lucky both times, but I'd say that just by taking the shot on, we increased the chances of something happening both times. In contrast, on a number of occasions in the last two games, we have created excellent opportunities to shoot but haven't. If Andros shoots in the first couple of minutes yesterday then maybe he scores and maybe he doesn't, but even if he doesn't then maybe we get 'lucky' and the keeper palms it straight to Wilf, or it takes a deflection. Of course, there are times when not taking the shot on is the better option, but it's about weighing those up correctly. When you have a clear sight of goal, we need to be pulling the trigger more often. The more we shoot, the 'luckier' we'll get. Employee of the month is a good example of how someone can be both a winner and a loser at the same time.
Alert a moderator to this post

Username

Horsham 26 Nov 17 2.44pm

Originally posted by Aolcpfc

No.

A 'tide of luck' does not turn BECAUSE of, or DESPITE what went before.

It turns because luck is luck- nothing more.

Six heads in a row occur because of luck. The next throw is still a 50:50 chance of being a head. The throw after that still has a 50:50 chance of being a head.

Now if you'd said at the start: "what's the chance of 8 heads in a row?" you'd say it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. That's a very different out come.

Luck is not created- it happens: be it good or bad. We will have runs of luck and runs of bad luck.

Besides which, you couldn't possibly notice every instance of good luck and every instance of bad luck in a game. You can't see everything. So you can't say whether we were more lucky or less lucky in a particular game because you've not evaluated every instance of luck. A computer that 'watched' the game countless number of times might get closer to an answer, but even that would depend on what is programmed as being 'luck'.

We humans only register a very small proportion of what we see. Furthermore we are all biased. How we perceive things and evaluate things is dependent on our preconceptions.

Luck will, so to speak, sort itself out.

Not even worth thinking about luck as it can't be influenced. I stand to be corrected (as I am no panjandrum) by the philosophers/ physicists amongst you, but that's how I understand it.

Luck maybe can't be influenced, but you can still increase the odds in your favour, and as a result 'get lucky'.

We've scored two 'lucky' goals in two weeks. Both came from scruffy shots (Cabaye this week, RLC last week). You could say we were lucky both times, but I'd say that just by taking the shot on, we increased the chances of something happening both times.

In contrast, on a number of occasions in the last two games, we have created excellent opportunities to shoot but haven't. If Andros shoots in the first couple of minutes yesterday then maybe he scores and maybe he doesn't, but even if he doesn't then maybe we get 'lucky' and the keeper palms it straight to Wilf, or it takes a deflection.

Of course, there are times when not taking the shot on is the better option, but it's about weighing those up correctly. When you have a clear sight of goal, we need to be pulling the trigger more often. The more we shoot, the 'luckier' we'll get.

Employee of the month is a good example of how someone can be both a winner and a loser at the same time.

Alert a moderator to this post

Goldfiinger Just down the road 26 Nov 17 3.42pm
Originally posted by PALACE FOR EVER Yes there was some luck in Sakho's goal but we have three players (Sakho, Benteke and Tompkins) in a line in the six yard box with Sakho in the middle, no Stoke player near them with Crouch on the goal line and the keeper no where near as he is positioning himself for Cabaye's shot. Give the players credit for standing where they did, can't be offside because of where Crouch is standing. I remember Ferguson when managing Man Utd saying (something like this) 'It looks like we are luckier than others but the players are good enough to take advantage of any luck going' You could say the better a team is the luckier they seem to be! Yeah Roy has us drilled to start taking advantage of any luck should it come out way.
Alert a moderator to this post

Goldfiinger

Just down the road 26 Nov 17 3.42pm

Originally posted by PALACE FOR EVER

I remember Ferguson when managing Man Utd saying (something like this) 'It looks like we are luckier than others but the players are good enough to take advantage of any luck going'

You could say the better a team is the luckier they seem to be!

Yeah Roy has us drilled to start taking advantage of any luck should it come out way.

Alert a moderator to this post

thai-eagle chiang mai 26 Nov 17 4.09pm
Good players/teams have luck!
Alert a moderator to this post

thai-eagle

chiang mai 26 Nov 17 4.09pm

Good players/teams have luck!

Alert a moderator to this post

n wales eagles llandudno 26 Nov 17 4.10pm
Originally posted by Mr_Gristle About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-) Regressing to the mean .Should suit parish
Alert a moderator to this post

n wales eagles

llandudno 26 Nov 17 4.10pm

Send a Private Message to n wales eagles

Originally posted by Mr_Gristle

About time our tide of misfortune started regressing to the mean, then. Maybe it's already started :-)

Regressing to the mean .Should suit parish

Alert a moderator to this post

Hutchyeagle Hove 26 Nov 17 7.02pm
My dad always used to say: ‘The harder you work , the luckier you get !’
Alert a moderator to this post

Hutchyeagle

Hove 26 Nov 17 7.02pm

My dad always used to say:

‘The harder you work , the luckier you get !’

Alert a moderator to this post

chris123 hove actually 26 Nov 17 7.25pm
Originally posted by MKCPFC Don't come on here stating the obvious. 68% people agree.
Alert a moderator to this post

chris123

hove actually 26 Nov 17 7.25pm

Originally posted by MKCPFC

Don't come on here stating the obvious.

68% people agree.

Alert a moderator to this post

chateauferret 26 Nov 17 7.29pm
Originally posted by Hutchyeagle My dad always used to say: ‘The harder you work , the luckier you get !’ Mine used to try to make me go to clown games. ============ The Ferret ============
Alert a moderator to this post

chateauferret