Palace's Survival Magic Number

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Palace's Survival Magic Number

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thebob Tatebayashi (from Croydon) 08 Apr 14 11.03pm
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety. It is quite a bit more complex than that. The "magic number" is the amount of points that will guarantee that we finish 17th. 13 would be the magic number if Sunderland weren't playing any of the teams above us, but they are. Not every team below us can score maximum points because not everyone can win every game. Before the Sun-Spurs game 10 was the number, It's slightly less now but I can't be assed to calculate it. This predictor is great. [Link] Try making every team below us win every match and you will soon find out how the interplay of other teams increases our chances of staying up. 3 or 4 pts will do it realistically , but mathematically we need at least 10 pts. Edited by thebob (08 Apr 2014 11.03pm)
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thebob

Tatebayashi (from Croydon) 08 Apr 14 11.03pm

Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm

The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.

It is quite a bit more complex than that.

The "magic number" is the amount of points that will guarantee that we finish 17th. 13 would be the magic number if Sunderland weren't playing any of the teams above us, but they are. Not every team below us can score maximum points because not everyone can win every game.

Before the Sun-Spurs game 10 was the number, It's slightly less now but I can't be assed to calculate it.

This predictor is great.

[Link]

Try making every team below us win every match and you will soon find out how the interplay of other teams increases our chances of staying up.

3 or 4 pts will do it realistically , but mathematically we need at least 10 pts.

Edited by thebob (08 Apr 2014 11.03pm)

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Alexi_the_Eagle Newton-le-Willows 08 Apr 14 11.16pm
Palace's magic number? 39 points. That's all we need, a win and 2 draws to be safe. "Look at that. Accident blackspot? These aren't accidents! They're throwing themselves into the road gladly! Throwing themselves into the road to escape all this hideousness!"
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Alexi_the_Eagle

Newton-le-Willows 08 Apr 14 11.16pm

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Palace's magic number? 39 points. That's all we need, a win and 2 draws to be safe.

"Look at that. Accident blackspot? These aren't accidents! They're throwing themselves into the road gladly! Throwing themselves into the road to escape all this hideousness!"

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Canterbury Palace Whitstable 08 Apr 14 11.30pm
I think if we now lost every remaining game we'd still have a decent chance of staying up. Sunderland and Cardiff need too many points per game, far above what they've achieved so far this season. I think those two will be joined by the loser of the Fulham V Norwich game this weekend. My money is literally on Fulham escaping, which I backed at 29/10 this morning. I don't reckon Norwich will take another point. We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...
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Canterbury Palace

Whitstable 08 Apr 14 11.30pm

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I think if we now lost every remaining game we'd still have a decent chance of staying up. Sunderland and Cardiff need too many points per game, far above what they've achieved so far this season. I think those two will be joined by the loser of the Fulham V Norwich game this weekend. My money is literally on Fulham escaping, which I backed at 29/10 this morning. I don't reckon Norwich will take another point.

We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

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rossboss29 Portsmouth 08 Apr 14 11.33pm
I genuinely believe 36 points will be enough to stay up. One more win and I think we will have survival. If we lose against Villa, West Ham & Everton I reckon it will go to the last day of the season.
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rossboss29

Portsmouth 08 Apr 14 11.33pm

I genuinely believe 36 points will be enough to stay up.
One more win and I think we will have survival. If we lose against Villa, West Ham & Everton I reckon it will go to the last day of the season.

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Stesbot Tonbridge 08 Apr 14 11.45pm
Using the predictor I think 9 points mathematically guarantees survival although getting relegated on 42 points takes quite a sequence of results from our rivals.
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Stesbot

Tonbridge 08 Apr 14 11.45pm

Using the predictor I think 9 points mathematically guarantees survival although getting relegated on 42 points takes quite a sequence of results from our rivals.

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kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 09 Apr 14 4.50pm
Having started this thread, I admit that my math and statistics are from hunger. Divorced...And LOVING it! VJRAM Rev. CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach Trevor Francis, International PRAT
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kenbarr

Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 09 Apr 14 4.50pm

Having started this thread, I admit that my math and statistics are from hunger.

Divorced...And LOVING it!
VJRAM Rev.
CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC
Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach
Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach
Trevor Francis, International PRAT

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Lee_Bowman DOVER 09 Apr 14 4.59pm
I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this… ASTON VILLA 40 PALACE 39 SWANSEA CITY 37 WEST BROM 37 FULHAM 34 NORWICH CITY 33 SUNDERLAND 33 CARDIFF CITY 30 Twitter: @LeeCPDAFC
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Lee_Bowman

DOVER 09 Apr 14 4.59pm

I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this…

ASTON VILLA 40
PALACE 39
SWANSEA CITY 37
WEST BROM 37
FULHAM 34
NORWICH CITY 33
SUNDERLAND 33
CARDIFF CITY 30

Twitter: @LeeCPDAFC

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kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.34pm
With Palace winning and Sunderland losing, magic survival number goes down to 7. Can we start to believe now? Divorced...And LOVING it! VJRAM Rev. CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach Trevor Francis, International PRAT
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kenbarr

Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.34pm

With Palace winning and Sunderland losing, magic survival number goes down to 7. Can we start to believe now?

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kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.37pm
Quote Lee_Bowman at 09 Apr 2014 4.59pm I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this… ASTON VILLA 40 PALACE 39 SWANSEA CITY 37 WEST BROM 37 FULHAM 34 NORWICH CITY 33 SUNDERLAND 33 CARDIFF CITY 30 We have 37 now with a winnable fixture at West Ham, a barn burner between two in-form sides at Everton Wednesday night and I fancy our chances getting points against both Liverpool and Man City. Fulham away is tricky because they still may need points to survive. Palace should come out this with anywhere from 42 to 45 points. Divorced...And LOVING it! VJRAM Rev. CPFC since Boxing Day 1989 CPFC 2-2 CFC Gregg Berhalter, US International & USMNT Head Coach Jill Ellis, England International & Retired USWNT Head Coach Trevor Francis, International PRAT
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kenbarr

Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.37pm

Quote Lee_Bowman at 09 Apr 2014 4.59pm

I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this…

ASTON VILLA 40
PALACE 39
SWANSEA CITY 37
WEST BROM 37
FULHAM 34
NORWICH CITY 33
SUNDERLAND 33
CARDIFF CITY 30

We have 37 now with a winnable fixture at West Ham, a barn burner between two in-form sides at Everton Wednesday night and I fancy our chances getting points against both Liverpool and Man City. Fulham away is tricky because they still may need points to survive. Palace should come out this with anywhere from 42 to 45 points.

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