We've been waiting for our rebate since Thatcher. I think it's safe to say we've written that off.

Red and Blue Army!

Mother Merkel decided to offer Cameron nothing on freedom of movement on the renegotiation and now Germany get to enjoy the fruits of her decisions as she leaves.

How lucky they were to vote in the East German Merkel....More than a million new Muslims up...before suddenly deciding borders actually mattered and losing the British because of her and France's insistence that certain EU rules are set in stone.

....unless they apply to Germany meeting its budget, or indeed real audits of the EU finances.... or Greek finances before joining....amongst the numerous other eyes averted rule breaks that this cartel ignores.

Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Aug 2019 7.03pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

LOL.

Oddly enough I don't get that het up about the money. Yes, it is a lot but in the greater scheme of things, not beyond what we can comfortably pay.

And if the talks had been handled better then I reckon it would actually have been a relatively cheap sum to hand over in exchange for EU co-operation on border issues. The money is a specific concern for the actual EU as an institution, as opposed to the trade concerns which are primarily national and if we had agreed to keep on bunging the w***ers in Brussels, it might have smoothed out paths elsewhere. And to be fair to the EU, it does actually hold a lot of smaller countries to account when it comes to how the money is spent on infrastructure so some points could have been had by taking a more generous stance

But that ship has sailed and now playing the withholding card makes perfect sense. There will be a lot of white noise about this but I suspect that nobody will make that much fuss at least in the British domestic political arena. EU bigwigs sounding off about us not coughing up plays right into the Leave narrative with zero votes to be gained in trying to claim we should pay the EU more than we need to.

It's a win-win for Johnson.

But always keep an eye on the main game here which is any and every attempt to keep the UK a captive market for EU goods. Only game in town. The money is ultimately a side show, at least in terms of this particular contribution. That is why the EU will play-hard ball right until the end. They NEED the UK to remain a cash cow for numerous EU memberstates who stand to lose billions if they have to compete with other producers for the UK £ in your pocket.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Yes it's all about how the hand is played at this stage. Who blinks first. May was a walkover but I think Boris, through a combination of seeing what didn't work, and ideas about his own legacy is unlikely to back down. What the eventual outcome of that will be for any proposed deal is up for debate I suppose. It's looking like a 50/50 between a rehashed deal and No Deal in my view now. It's surprising how much common ground can be found as the clock ticks down.

Good analysis from Matov if we do have a GE before 31 Oct Farage can either make or break the Tories.

I said previously that Corbyn may not want a GE before we Brexit as if we do it will be all about that topic and Labour do not have a convincing policy.

Yesterday when the rebels met Corbyn decided against calling a no confidence motion immediately when Parliament meets. This is now a game of chess with multiple levels and players.

Johnson Wants some form of Brexit too little and the ERG and Farage will sink the Tories. Too much it may not get through Parliament and the opposition could seize control of the timetable.

Corbyn wants to be PM but also wants Brexit but doesn't want to be seen as that by his Remain party. If he provokes a GE before 31 Oct he will have to fight as a Remain party or face losing votes to the other Remain parties. If he does fight as a Remain party he runs the real risk of losing votes to Farage. I suspect he wants a GE post Brexit so he can fight on traditional party lines.

The EU are sitting on the fence hoping the Remainers seize control so they don't have to do anything. If Boris exits no deal and wins a big GE majority it will make it harder for the EU to agree any trade deal post Brexit. So would it be better to agree a deal now whilst Boris is still fairly weak?

Remain politicians. They have stopped talking about a people's vote I think they have realised there is no appetite for that amongst the public. Their position appears to have harden as they are now looking at repealing article 50. They run the risk of alienating the voters which is why they keep talking about not leaving without a deal to sound reasonable. I am getting fed up with the media for not asking the simple question what deal? There is only one deal on the table and Parliament has rejected that 3 times. If the EU continue to refuse to negotiate then talk of not leaving without a deal is completely meaningless, it is also a fig leaf that the public can see through when they say we need a deal they really mean we want to stay.

All to play for who will blink first.

One more point

Looks like Johnson is about to cross the Rubicon. Lot of chatter out there about him going to the Queen to discuss suspending Parliament from mid-September.

It is a huge f***ing trap. He wants their outrage. He wants them throwing all their toys out of the pram. And will offer them a vote. Revoke or Back Brexit.

LOL. It is beautiful in a f***ed up way. True political showmanship on a scale we have not seen in decades. A defining moment in this countries history.

The Remainers will be bursting veins in their heads.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.