MSM are in a tizzy over McDonell comments that Corbyn will tell the Queen Labour are taking over e.g. Marxist coup.

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Actually it's not as sinister as it sounds.

-Johnson loses a vote of no confidence and decides not to call a GE immediately.

- Labour say they can form a government and put forward a vote of confidence in a Corbyn led coalition which they win proving they have a majority. On this basis Corbyn approaches the Queen for permission to form a government which she would give.

All of the above is entirely constitutionally although I wouldn't like to see it. I don't think it will happen for the following reasons:

- It is entirely possible that Johnson will lose a vote on a no deal Brexit as Tory rebels would vote with the opposition. However how many of those rebels would actively support a Corbyn coalition? This would mean they leave the Tory party and likely lose their next seat at the next GE.

- The Lib Dems would vote against a no deal but would they form a coalition? Last time they did this they got badly burned.

- The nationalists would ask a high price to join a coalition would Corbyn be prepared to pay that and would enough of his MPs support this if they felt the union was at risk.

The more likely scenario is that Johnson loses a no confidence vote there is a lot of dithering by the opposition parties who can't muster the votes to take over Johnson runs the clock down and then calls a GE after 31 Oct.

Edited by Badger11 (08 Aug 2019 8.42am)

One more point

It's globalist in the idea of open borders and multi-country trade pacts.

But I see it more as authoritarians (EU, UK establishment) vs individuals (rights and free speech).

The Americans could be the solution to this. Sign a free trade deal and the UK has some sort of market. The lowering of food standards will obviously be an issue.

We'll never die

If Brexit is the primary narrative then I suspect it is Johnsons to lose. The context here is to understand how both the June 2016 and the recent Euro-Election vote panned out on a constituency basis. And it was overwhelmingly pro-leave. I think in June 2016 the vote broke down to roughly 400 Leave seats compared to 200 remain. It is why Corbyn has resisted so hard against making Labour the party of Remain because he is aware of the maths.

Johnson knows he has to fight on the grounds of Brexit. No other way of looking at it. Hence what we are seeing now. Ramping up the rhetoric to provoke the Remain side into hysteria. Trust me, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Johnson gets to lead a Tory Party that will be cleansed of any dissenting voices whilst Corbyn leads what? A party in complete disarray which gets slaughtered every time the Brexit issue gets raised. And Lib-Dems, openly wishing to ignore the result from 2016.

Only question for Johnson is how the Brexit Party leaps. If they decide not to stand, or only do so in certain seats with the Tories standing to one side then I suspect it will be a 30-40 seat majority for Johnson. However, if they decide to fully contest it, perhaps a different picture.

Now whether Johnson then follows through on his no-deal Brexit, that is another question but I suspect that if he does win, the EU will offer a lot more concessions based on the fact they have an out in claiming it is a new Government now with a specific mandate.

I suspect a deal with include keeping us in the single market and customs union for agricultural goods. The EU want to protect Irish farmers and whilst I would love to see that t*** Varadkar destroyed, we need to rise above that sort of short term squabble.

But an interesting few months ahead but I suspect September will either make or break Johnson.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

I suspect that certain people in the EU might like the idea but the truth is that are fighting too many of their own fires at the moment. And Africa is being bought up by China. That is the real colonial expansion going on at the moment and where the problems are to come in the next 50 years or so. If people like to believe us big bad westerners were bad for Africa, then they are going to hate what China intends for the place because they genuinely do not see Africans as fully human. And have no missionary zeal to counter the economic pillaging.

If we do manage to extradite ourselves cleanly from the EU then I predict it will become even more protectionist than it is at the moment. To many French, Spanish and to a lesser extent, Irish farmers to protect from the slings and arrows of free global trade. And without the UK to sell into, it has to redirect those products inward.

The whole point is that they cannot compete as things stand with the rest of the world so all they can do is whack up tariffs and lock even more global trade out of their club.

Edited by Matov (08 Aug 2019 12.52pm)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

This Brexit joke never gets old.

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Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Aug 2019 8.57am)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)