This page is no longer updated, and is the old forum. For new topics visit the New HOL forum.
Register | Edit Profile | Subscriptions | Forum Rules | Log In
Matov 31 Jul 19 1.00am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Stirlingsays
As for Johnson himself, yep I agree. While my vote is with Johnson as a election winner I very much view him as the best of a poor bunch. He doesn't seem to believe in much and comes across as the typical neo liberal GDP Tory.....though hopefully with a much higher commitment to free speech and at least we should get him ditching all the ridiculous feminism BS that May infected the party with. Edited by Stirlingsays (31 Jul 2019 12.19am) Not much in that to disagree with although I suspect that he set his sights on number 10 early and was willing to do anything to get there. Meaning he desires a legacy. And that he might just succeed. Plus he has a teflon quality. By rights and all modern parameters he should not have been in with a sniff of making it but he did so. Reserving judgement at the moment. October 31st really is the key date here and I suspect he knows it. What has impressed me is how he has hit the ground running on Brexit. No smoke and mirrors and effectively setting out his stall straight away with no room for backing out. And I know I bang on about it but that Cummings/Grove axis is the key for me. Raab as foreign secretary as well. Bridges and boats are well and truly burnt and this is a fight to the political death for him. And he must know it. Failure to leave by October 31st and none of it matters anymore as the Brexit Party effectively kill the Tories off for decades to come. September is now the key. Lot of hot air between now and the first week but then it gets real.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Sir James Hird Mount Martha 31 Jul 19 3.39am | |
---|---|
Viewing Brexit from the outside(thank goodness!).
|
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Midlands Eagle 31 Jul 19 6.24am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Matov
What a refreshing comment at a time when so many others have already made their minds up that we are doomed, based on absolutely nothing but their existing prejudice. My only complaint at the moment is that I'd like to see less photo opportunities of our Prime Minister holding chickens as it really isn't necessary
|
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
dannyboy1978 31 Jul 19 7.01am | |
---|---|
BBC team scare mongers in full swing.
|
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Badger11 Beckenham 31 Jul 19 7.23am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Sir James Hird
Viewing Brexit from the outside(thank goodness!). Good point. I think the EU will not miss us but they will miss our money. The concern for them is that if we "get away with it" others may follow. Moving onto to Johnson's strategy I think he has it about right. There is no point in holding discussions with the EU unless they take the backstop off the table. The EU's strategy is quite clear delay and prevarication, this suits the Remainers as they hope the tide will tun in their favour and it never happens. Johnson has now called the EU's bluff and they have a big decision to make. Compromise on the backstop or risk a hard Brexit with them seen as the guilty party. They could go "all in" and hope that parliament rejects a hard Brexit and that Johnson then loses a general election. However this is high risk as I think Johnson may get the votes. Parliament has rejected a hard Brexit before however this was only by one vote and at a time when it was thought a better deal was available. Faced with a binary choice some MPs will have a tough call. The Remainers don't enter the equation as they will always vote against it whatever the deal or no deal. Some MP's can be persuaded to switch sides because they face the prospect of facing a rampant Brexit party at the GE. Boris may also pressurise the local party to deselect an MP in favour of a Brexiteer. If Johnson can show that the EU are the bad guys and are unwillingly to negotiate I think he will get just enough votes to pass a no deal Brexit but it will be tight. For now he needs to increase the Tory vote in the opinion polls. The more likely a Tory win at the next GE the more likely that the EU will realise that a deal is the best solution for them as Corbyn will not be the next PM.
One more point |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 31 Jul 19 8.28am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Spiderman
Please explain what they could do about it? Vote of no confidence? Bring it on, as Labour have gone, I suspect some of the Tory Brexit busters will either be de-selected or lose their seats (those whose constituents voted to leave). Only if there is a GE. I don't think the Tories will risk one as it could cause them a complete break up. If a vote of no confidence succeeds then there would be a new coalition government rather than a GE as a consequence. Assuming there is no GE then the current Parliament will find a way to stop no deal. Some have argued that there are legal challenges being prepared which would likely rule it out as impossible but certainly tie it up in the Courts for years.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 31 Jul 19 8.32am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by dannyboy1978
BBC team scare mongers in full swing. Explain what is "scare mongering" about publishing a factual article about a vital issue dominating the national news? Don't we have a right to understand the impact? Do you prefer that we be kept in the blissful ignorance of promises, wishes and hopes?
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Badger11 Beckenham 31 Jul 19 8.40am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Only if there is a GE. I don't think the Tories will risk one as it could cause them a complete break up. If a vote of no confidence succeeds then there would be a new coalition government rather than a GE as a consequence. Assuming there is no GE then the current Parliament will find a way to stop no deal. Some have argued that there are legal challenges being prepared which would likely rule it out as impossible but certainly tie it up in the Courts for years. I don't see that happening and I am not sure that Corbyn wants that either? For a coalition to succeed it would need the DUP to break with the Tories, they would still need some Tory rebels to defect to one of the other parties. Those Tories who defect would never be forgiven by Tory voters for letting in a Corbyn government and would be ousted at the next GE in 3 years. A more likely scenario is there are not enough votes for a no deal Brexit and not enough votes for a new coalition government. Corbyn is 70 he knows if he is ever going to be PM it is now or never. His popularity is diminishing and whilst a coalition government would give him what he wants I don't see he will be able to gather enough votes. His best chance is to fight a GE this year as a Remain party which would see the Lib Dems lose the votes they hoovered up from Labour. Anyway all speculation no one really knows.
One more point |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 31 Jul 19 9.20am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Badger11
I don't see that happening and I am not sure that Corbyn wants that either? For a coalition to succeed it would need the DUP to break with the Tories, they would still need some Tory rebels to defect to one of the other parties. Those Tories who defect would never be forgiven by Tory voters for letting in a Corbyn government and would be ousted at the next GE in 3 years. A more likely scenario is there are not enough votes for a no deal Brexit and not enough votes for a new coalition government. Corbyn is 70 he knows if he is ever going to be PM it is now or never. His popularity is diminishing and whilst a coalition government would give him what he wants I don't see he will be able to gather enough votes. His best chance is to fight a GE this year as a Remain party which would see the Lib Dems lose the votes they hoovered up from Labour. Anyway all speculation no one really knows. I agree no-one knows. Certainly not Bogus Johnson. I don't think the DUP will break with the Tories but I do believe that there is likely to be a significant group of Tories who will put country before party at this time if a no deal outcome is the alternative. I think there is a growing mood within Labour that they need to replace Corbyn if they are to secure power so don't be surprised if something happens in the coming few weeks to achieve that in time. But I am only speculating too.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Stirlingsays 31 Jul 19 10.03am | |
---|---|
Corbyn is going nowhere, not until after a general election anyway. The Labour party benches are filled with his supporters, as is his right. When Corbyn loses as I expect him to then the fallout and aftermath in the Labour ranks will be fascinating to watch. I still find it hard to envisage Labour going back to a kind of Blairism though....still, all will be revealed. Edited by Stirlingsays (31 Jul 2019 10.04am)
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Midlands Eagle 31 Jul 19 10.12am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Explain what is "scare mongering" about publishing a factual article about a vital issue dominating the national news? Don't we have a right to understand the impact? The article was deliberately written to appeal to people like yourself who are so close minded that they aren't interested in any other viewpoint apart from their own. Everyone has the right to understand the impact of a no deal Brexit but reading biased articles like that one won't help at all
|
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
EverybodyDannsNow SE19 31 Jul 19 10.21am | |
---|---|
Originally posted by dannyboy1978
BBC team scare mongers in full swing. No one was talking about no deal 3 years ago; it was all project fear and we were going to agree the easiest trade deal in history...
|
|
Alert a moderator to this post |
Registration is now on our new message board
To login with your existing username you will need to convert your account over to the new message board.
All images and text on this site are copyright © 1999-2024 The Holmesdale Online, unless otherwise stated.
Web Design by Guntrisoft Ltd.