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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?
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 Stirlingsays  26 Apr 22 4.56pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
True, I wasn't giving any particular value judgement on it, nor a particular timeframe. The Irish are so intermixed with the British that distinctions are purely cultural at this point....mind you the practical differences between the cultures are more imagined than anything else. In that sense it's very similar to the Ukrainians and Russians..... It's a war between slavs who are all pretty much the same. I'm not arguing for full human universalism....because that's basically the commie's position. But this war is essentially self harming and at the end of it I think most will come to view it that way. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Apr 2022 4.57pm)
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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ASCPFC  Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 26 Apr 22 5.01pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
The Irish are so intermixed with the British that distinctions are purely cultural at this point....mind you the practical differences between the cultures are more imagined than anything else. In that sense it's very similar to the Ukrainians and Russians..... It's a war between slavs who are all pretty much the same. I'm not arguing for full human universalism....because that's basically the commie's position. But this war is essentially self harming and at the end of it I think most will come to view it that way. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Apr 2022 4.57pm) I can understand what you mean, yet, all I can see is that Ukrainians who were not particularly radical now hate Russia. They're not going to give up. It's not a winnable war.
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 georgenorman 26 Apr 22 5.04pm |
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Originally posted by W12
I'm fairly close to this pit of vipers by the way by way of what I do for a living so can see elements of this happening up close. Edited by W12 (26 Apr 2022 4.31pm) What as Putin's boyfriend you mean?
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| W12 26 Apr 22 5.18pm | |
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Originally posted by cryrst
So you are part of the problem that you so dislike.! How did you make that assumption?
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| W12 26 Apr 22 5.18pm | |
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Originally posted by georgenorman
What as Putin's boyfriend you mean? Mongo like candy.
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cryrst  The garden of England 26 Apr 22 5.31pm |
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Originally posted by W12
How did you make that assumption? You help the system you despise
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| W12 26 Apr 22 5.36pm | |
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Originally posted by cryrst
You help the system you despise No I don't
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| Stirlingsays 26 Apr 22 5.55pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
I can understand what you mean, yet, all I can see is that Ukrainians who were not particularly radical now hate Russia. They're not going to give up. It's not a winnable war. While I'm critical of my own side's general policy towards Russia since the Berlin wall came down....something I view as recklessly counter productive this doesn't translate into thinking an invasion was the correct Russian response. Whole books could be written on alternative tactics that essentially result in protecting your own people in borderlands and no doubt those books on alternative approaches will be written.....there's also the Nato encroachment aspect, western interference and the coup and all the rest of it but I'll leave that be. I agree, that polarisation means that come the peace deal the Russian call for the demilitarisation of Ukraine isn't realistic....though a demilitarised zone around its areas is. When we think of 'winning', that would mean different things to different people depending upon the take.....there is no doubt that whatever the outcome both sides will claim victories because no set of elites are Turkeys voting for Christmas.....though personally I think most of our elites are practically oven ready. What will be the end result? I think Russia will gain territory that won't be given back. The cost of gaining it though makes it a hard sell even internally. However, as they control the media they will decide most people's opinions....the same as here. In the longer light of day I think the view will prevail that soft power would have been the better approach to their policy aims. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Apr 2022 6.02pm)
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| ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 26 Apr 22 6.09pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
While I'm critical of my own side's general policy towards Russia since the Berlin wall came down....something I view as recklessly counter productive this doesn't translate into thinking an invasion was the correct Russian response. Whole books could be written on alternative tactics that essentially result in protecting your own people in borderlands and no doubt those books on alternative approaches will be written.....there's also the Nato encroachment aspect, western interference and the coup and all the rest of it but I'll leave that be. I agree, that polarisation means that come the peace deal the Russian call for the demilitarisation of Ukraine isn't realistic....though a demilitarised zone around its areas is. When we think of 'winning', that would mean different things to different people depending upon the take.....there is no doubt that whatever the outcome both sides will claim victories because no set of elites are Turkeys voting for Christmas.....though personally I think most of our elites are practically oven ready. What will be the end result? I think Russia will gain territory that won't be given back. The cost of gaining it though makes it a hard sell even internally. However, as they control the media they will decide most people's opinions....the same as here. In the longer light of day I think the view will prevail that soft power would have been the better approach to their policy aims. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Apr 2022 6.02pm) It's a decent observation. Just in a practical sense, to overcome a country like Ukraine would take probably 4 or 5 times the forces Russia is committing. Conventional military thinking is that you need 2.5-3 times the forces when attacking defending forces. By my reckoning, requiring maybe more than 700,000 troops. Just can't see it happening.
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| Grumbles 26 Apr 22 6.19pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
It's a decent observation. Just in a practical sense, to overcome a country like Ukraine would take probably 4 or 5 times the forces Russia is committing. Conventional military thinking is that you need 2.5-3 times the forces when attacking defending forces. By my reckoning, requiring maybe more than 700,000 troops. Just can't see it happening. 3 to 1 in open ground up to 10 to 1 in urban environments. The policy of appeasement has not worked so yes a tougher line should have been taken on Russia. Question being should, NATO or the Allies really have "encroached" in '45 or '90."
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| Stirlingsays 26 Apr 22 6.24pm |
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Originally posted by ASCPFC
It's a decent observation. Just in a practical sense, to overcome a country like Ukraine would take probably 4 or 5 times the forces Russia is committing. Conventional military thinking is that you need 2.5-3 times the forces when attacking defending forces. By my reckoning, requiring maybe more than 700,000 troops. Just can't see it happening. That would be true if the areas you are defending were hostile. I think Russia keeping its gains mostly restricted to high Russian populated areas reduces those difficulties. Most pro Ukrainians in the Donbas for example will long since have moved out since 2014. I can't see a win for Ukraine here.....that's Ukraine personally.....I realise that the west are more than willing to sacrifice the entire Ukrainian male population and not care how gang pressed some of them were. Nato could 'win' a long economically damaging war where we are all eating beans...or it could end in us getting fried. Personally I argue for the least damage solutions, but I'm still waiting for that view to emerge within the elites outside of Orban.
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| ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 26 Apr 22 6.30pm |
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Originally posted by Grumbles
3 to 1 in open ground up to 10 to 1 in urban environments. The policy of appeasement has not worked so yes a tougher line should have been taken on Russia. Question being should, NATO or the Allies really have "encroached" in '45 or '90." I was joking about Patton in 45 before - but look what happened to him. That's a conspiracy theory that has been brushed under the carpet some time ago. He was all for driving straight on. However, my personal opinion is that Russian forces were strong in 45 and would have won (nukes notwithstanding). Today, it genuinely looks like, militarily, Russia are not the threat people thought (nukes notwithstanding).
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