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The Strange Death of Europe - Douglas K Murry

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johnfirewall 19 Dec 17 11.24am
Originally posted by Stirlingsays I don't have a 'lot'. Unless it's as a secular Englishman. I support principles not groups...never joined one up to now...groups are an inevitable compromise of principles. You can correctly call me anti EU and anti religion, especially socially conservative Islam.....but then again....as you've called me pretty much everything under the sun you don't need suggestions. Edited by Stirlingsays (18 Dec 2017 10.20pm) I think all you've done there is presented yourself to the left as the average BF member. I'm not sure why no one can really appreciate the nuances of anyone else's political views. Because I despise Corbyn I was require to explain in great depth to one of his fans why this didn't mean I was a Tory. You've got to give it to the Yanks. Most pertinent that Sam Harris, a friend of Murray who would share your views considers himself a liberal.
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johnfirewall

19 Dec 17 11.24am

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I don't have a 'lot'. Unless it's as a secular Englishman.

I support principles not groups...never joined one up to now...groups are an inevitable compromise of principles.

You can correctly call me anti EU and anti religion, especially socially conservative Islam.....but then again....as you've called me pretty much everything under the sun you don't need suggestions.

Edited by Stirlingsays (18 Dec 2017 10.20pm)

I think all you've done there is presented yourself to the left as the average BF member. I'm not sure why no one can really appreciate the nuances of anyone else's political views.

Because I despise Corbyn I was require to explain in great depth to one of his fans why this didn't mean I was a Tory.

You've got to give it to the Yanks. Most pertinent that Sam Harris, a friend of Murray who would share your views considers himself a liberal.

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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 19 Dec 17 1.00pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays Deal, over and you the same, I'll be here and I will honour the bet....though conservative posters do appear under threat in terms of red cards. Edited by Stirlingsays (18 Dec 2017 11.41pm) Hopefully you won't see red before then! I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand. I think we can all agree on a few basics; as you posted previously, at the 2011 census the number of Muslims living in the UK was a fraction over 3 million, roughly 4.4% of the total population.The birth rate for immigrants is 3.1 and for UK nationals 1.9. To maintain steady population numbers requires a long term birth rate of 2.2; 1 to replace the mother, 1 to replace the father and .2 to replace those who don't have children. So, a Muslim birth rate of 3.1 provides an increase of 0.9 of a person per mother over the course of a generation, 30 years. As there were 3,000,000 Muslims living in the UK in 2011, it is fairly safe to assume that half of them were female, 1.5 million. They each produce 0.9 extra people (round it up to 1) so the total number of Muslims living in the UK in 2041 will be 4,500,000. The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%. Thirty years to rise from 4.4% to 6.1%; obviously shorter term the rise would be considerably lower, so it'll be interesting to see which side of 5% it falls in 2021. I believe my £100 will be fairly safe! I used to be immortal
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crystal balls

The Garden of Earthly Delights 19 Dec 17 1.00pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Deal, over and you the same, I'll be here and I will honour the bet....though conservative posters do appear under threat in terms of red cards.

Edited by Stirlingsays (18 Dec 2017 11.41pm)

Hopefully you won't see red before then!

I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand.

I think we can all agree on a few basics; as you posted previously, at the 2011 census the number of Muslims living in the UK was a fraction over 3 million, roughly 4.4% of the total population.The birth rate for immigrants is 3.1 and for UK nationals 1.9.

To maintain steady population numbers requires a long term birth rate of 2.2; 1 to replace the mother, 1 to replace the father and .2 to replace those who don't have children. So, a Muslim birth rate of 3.1 provides an increase of 0.9 of a person per mother over the course of a generation, 30 years.

As there were 3,000,000 Muslims living in the UK in 2011, it is fairly safe to assume that half of them were female, 1.5 million. They each produce 0.9 extra people (round it up to 1) so the total number of Muslims living in the UK in 2041 will be 4,500,000.

The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%.

Thirty years to rise from 4.4% to 6.1%; obviously shorter term the rise would be considerably lower, so it'll be interesting to see which side of 5% it falls in 2021. I believe my £100 will be fairly safe!

I used to be immortal

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Hrolf The Ganger 19 Dec 17 1.48pm
Originally posted by crystal balls Hopefully you won't see red before then! I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand. I think we can all agree on a few basics; as you posted previously, at the 2011 census the number of Muslims living in the UK was a fraction over 3 million, roughly 4.4% of the total population.The birth rate for immigrants is 3.1 and for UK nationals 1.9. To maintain steady population numbers requires a long term birth rate of 2.2; 1 to replace the mother, 1 to replace the father and .2 to replace those who don't have children. So, a Muslim birth rate of 3.1 provides an increase of 0.9 of a person per mother over the course of a generation, 30 years. As there were 3,000,000 Muslims living in the UK in 2011, it is fairly safe to assume that half of them were female, 1.5 million. They each produce 0.9 extra people (round it up to 1) so the total number of Muslims living in the UK in 2041 will be 4,500,000. The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%. Thirty years to rise from 4.4% to 6.1%; obviously shorter term the rise would be considerably lower, so it'll be interesting to see which side of 5% it falls in 2021. I believe my £100 will be fairly safe! Yep. Very good. Keep shifting your argument and eventually, you will tell us exactly what I told you in the first place. Ageing population has nothing to do with long term population growth and that the immigrant origin population is growing faster than the rest.
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Hrolf The Ganger

19 Dec 17 1.48pm

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Originally posted by crystal balls

Hopefully you won't see red before then!

I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand.

The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%.

Yep. Very good. Keep shifting your argument and eventually, you will tell us exactly what I told you in the first place.

Ageing population has nothing to do with long term population growth and that the immigrant origin population is growing faster than the rest.

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Stirlingsays 19 Dec 17 2.42pm
Originally posted by crystal balls Hopefully you won't see red before then! I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand. I think we can all agree on a few basics; as you posted previously, at the 2011 census the number of Muslims living in the UK was a fraction over 3 million, roughly 4.4% of the total population.The birth rate for immigrants is 3.1 and for UK nationals 1.9. To maintain steady population numbers requires a long term birth rate of 2.2; 1 to replace the mother, 1 to replace the father and .2 to replace those who don't have children. So, a Muslim birth rate of 3.1 provides an increase of 0.9 of a person per mother over the course of a generation, 30 years. As there were 3,000,000 Muslims living in the UK in 2011, it is fairly safe to assume that half of them were female, 1.5 million. They each produce 0.9 extra people (round it up to 1) so the total number of Muslims living in the UK in 2041 will be 4,500,000. The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%. Thirty years to rise from 4.4% to 6.1%; obviously shorter term the rise would be considerably lower, so it'll be interesting to see which side of 5% it falls in 2021. I believe my £100 will be fairly safe! The Muslim population as a percentage of the national size doubled in this country in a decade. We shall see. 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

19 Dec 17 2.42pm

Originally posted by crystal balls

Hopefully you won't see red before then!

I have been thinking of a way to explain this so that even someone like Hrolf the Harris will be able to understand.

The total population in 2011 census was 63.1 million. This is forecast to rise to 72.9 million in 2041, so 30 years of a higher Muslim birthrate increases the percentage of the population to 6.1%.

The Muslim population as a percentage of the national size doubled in this country in a decade.

We shall see.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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nickgusset Shizzlehurst 19 Dec 17 6.12pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays The Muslim population as a percentage of the national size doubled in this country in a decade. We shall see. What decade and where is the data?
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nickgusset

Shizzlehurst 19 Dec 17 6.12pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

The Muslim population as a percentage of the national size doubled in this country in a decade.

We shall see.

What decade and where is the data?

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crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 19 Dec 17 10.53pm
Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger Yep. Very good. Keep shifting your argument and eventually, you will tell us exactly what I told you in the first place. Ageing population has nothing to do with long term population growth and that the immigrant origin population is growing faster than the rest. My argument hasn't shifted at all, as you should have the grace to admit. If you had read the link to the Telegraph that I posted you might understand my point. They made several very valid observations that support that point, particularly the one stating that in 2050 there will be three times as many people who are in their 90s than there will be births! Older people will form a greater proportion of the population. The figures I quoted in my post to Stirling are simply extrapolations of statistics from the 2011 census to 2041 if birth rates etc continue at the same rate as they were at that time. But there are three reasons why I believe the percentage of Muslims will not rise as quickly as that. Firstly, life expectancy has continued to increase, especially for males, and this is likely to continue due to medical innovations and (some) people living healthier lifestyles. There will be many more thousands of older people, proportionally larger in number, making younger ages proportionally smaller. Thus the percentage of Muslims who make up a greater proportion in the younger ages will be proportionally smaller overall too. Secondly, since 2011 the UK has had a much larger percentage of non-Muslim immigrants than Muslim, a total of over 1 million people. This is a larger number than all Muslim births and Muslim immigrants over the same term. Birth rates for these people are reckoned to be similar to Muslim birth rates. I'm sure I don't have to spell the effect of this out to you. And thirdly, purely anecdotal, but I don't believe that Muslim birthrate will continue at a 3.1 rate. My wife's parents came to England in the 50s from Guyana.They had eight children, which wasn't uncommon in Guyana, but quite rare in the UK. Three of their children were girls and they have 3,3 and 1 children respectively. The eldest sister had 2 girls and her eldest has one child, the other died before she had any children. The second sister had three boys and my wife has one girl, who is now 20 and hasn't any children yet. This may not be a particularly common example, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that within a generation or two birthrates among the decendents of immigrants are more likely to mirror rates among the general population. Please don't keep on with your nonsense, you are going to feel very foolish when it dawns on you that I have a valid point. I used to be immortal
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crystal balls

The Garden of Earthly Delights 19 Dec 17 10.53pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

Yep. Very good. Keep shifting your argument and eventually, you will tell us exactly what I told you in the first place.

Ageing population has nothing to do with long term population growth and that the immigrant origin population is growing faster than the rest.

My argument hasn't shifted at all, as you should have the grace to admit. If you had read the link to the Telegraph that I posted you might understand my point. They made several very valid observations that support that point, particularly the one stating that in 2050 there will be three times as many people who are in their 90s than there will be births! Older people will form a greater proportion of the population.

The figures I quoted in my post to Stirling are simply extrapolations of statistics from the 2011 census to 2041 if birth rates etc continue at the same rate as they were at that time. But there are three reasons why I believe the percentage of Muslims will not rise as quickly as that.

Firstly, life expectancy has continued to increase, especially for males, and this is likely to continue due to medical innovations and (some) people living healthier lifestyles. There will be many more thousands of older people, proportionally larger in number, making younger ages proportionally smaller. Thus the percentage of Muslims who make up a greater proportion in the younger ages will be proportionally smaller overall too.

Secondly, since 2011 the UK has had a much larger percentage of non-Muslim immigrants than Muslim, a total of over 1 million people. This is a larger number than all Muslim births and Muslim immigrants over the same term. Birth rates for these people are reckoned to be similar to Muslim birth rates. I'm sure I don't have to spell the effect of this out to you.

And thirdly, purely anecdotal, but I don't believe that Muslim birthrate will continue at a 3.1 rate. My wife's parents came to England in the 50s from Guyana.They had eight children, which wasn't uncommon in Guyana, but quite rare in the UK. Three of their children were girls and they have 3,3 and 1 children respectively. The eldest sister had 2 girls and her eldest has one child, the other died before she had any children. The second sister had three boys and my wife has one girl, who is now 20 and hasn't any children yet. This may not be a particularly common example, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that within a generation or two birthrates among the decendents of immigrants are more likely to mirror rates among the general population.

Please don't keep on with your nonsense, you are going to feel very foolish when it dawns on you that I have a valid point.

I used to be immortal

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Stirlingsays 19 Dec 17 11.20pm
Originally posted by nickgusset What decade and where is the data? [Link] [Link] Page 22. The number of Muslims in the UK increased from the 2001 to 2011 census by 48.3 percent. Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Dec 2017 11.35pm) 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

19 Dec 17 11.20pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

What decade and where is the data?

[Link]

Page 22.

The number of Muslims in the UK increased from the 2001 to 2011 census by 48.3 percent.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Dec 2017 11.35pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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nickgusset Shizzlehurst 19 Dec 17 11.38pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays [Link] Interesting. Where can I see the report the data was gleaned from? The data is from the last census, but I won't use the 'it's old' argument as we know the census if not perfect is the most reliable data we have, I'm sure you'll agree.
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nickgusset

Shizzlehurst 19 Dec 17 11.38pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

[Link]

Interesting. Where can I see the report the data was gleaned from?

The data is from the last census, but I won't use the 'it's old' argument as we know the census if not perfect is the most reliable data we have, I'm sure you'll agree.

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Stirlingsays 19 Dec 17 11.43pm
Originally posted by nickgusset Interesting. Where can I see the report the data was gleaned from? The data is from the last census, but I won't use the 'it's old' argument as we know the census if not perfect is the most reliable data we have, I'm sure you'll agree. See above. I'm sure you understand that the census is the only method we have for reliable demographic population statistics. 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

19 Dec 17 11.43pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

Interesting. Where can I see the report the data was gleaned from?

The data is from the last census, but I won't use the 'it's old' argument as we know the census if not perfect is the most reliable data we have, I'm sure you'll agree.

See above.

I'm sure you understand that the census is the only method we have for reliable demographic population statistics.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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nickgusset Shizzlehurst 20 Dec 17 12.20am
Originally posted by Stirlingsays See above. I'm sure you understand that the census is the only method we have for reliable demographic population statistics. Indeed, it was just that I posted research based on the last census to show conviction rates for Asian paedos was only just above the percentage demographic for Asians in the UK, yet it's not really reported that way, focussing on type one convictions which do have a higher percentage of Asian convictions. I was told it was too out of date to have any meaning. Thought it worth asking if census data is acceptable in debate.
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nickgusset

Shizzlehurst 20 Dec 17 12.20am

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

See above.

I'm sure you understand that the census is the only method we have for reliable demographic population statistics.

Indeed, it was just that I posted research based on the last census to show conviction rates for Asian paedos was only just above the percentage demographic for Asians in the UK, yet it's not really reported that way, focussing on type one convictions which do have a higher percentage of Asian convictions. I was told it was too out of date to have any meaning.

Thought it worth asking if census data is acceptable in debate.

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nickgusset Shizzlehurst 20 Dec 17 12.21am
Originally posted by Stirlingsays [Link] [Link] Page 22. The number of Muslims in the UK increased from the 2001 to 2011 census by 48.3 percent. Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Dec 2017 11.35pm) What was the number increase?
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nickgusset

Shizzlehurst 20 Dec 17 12.21am

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

[Link]

Page 22.

The number of Muslims in the UK increased from the 2001 to 2011 census by 48.3 percent.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Dec 2017 11.35pm)

What was the number increase?

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Stirlingsays 20 Dec 17 12.28am
Originally posted by nickgusset What was the number increase? Read the stuff on page 22-23. Apparently in 2014 the Islamic population in England and Wales was way over 5 percent.....so nationally I'm looking good for this bet for 2021. [Link] Edited by Stirlingsays (20 Dec 2017 12.37am) Attachment: pop.JPG (43.74Kb) 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

20 Dec 17 12.28am

Originally posted by nickgusset

What was the number increase?

Read the stuff on page 22-23.

Apparently in 2014 the Islamic population in England and Wales was way over 5 percent.....so nationally I'm looking good for this bet for 2021.

[Link]

Edited by Stirlingsays (20 Dec 2017 12.37am)

Attachment: pop.JPG (43.74Kb)