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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jan 13 9.48am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Quote Pussay Patrol at 06 Jan 2013 10.43pm

Quote MKeagle at 05 Jan 2013 8.51pm

I've been doing better recently since I've staked a little more on fewer games in the bet (more trebles & 4folds rather than 10 team acca's, I never win on them)! Plus, this thread gives decent tips!

Quote i_8_clowns at 05 Jan 2013 8.34pm

How do you guys normally get on? Reckon your up at all? However much I try, I always find one team that help the bookies to win!

Ah, this is the common mistake of the ordinary punter. As long as you bet at long odds, the less chance your bet will come in. This is how the bookies want you to bet, doing bets that will rarely come in at long odds, they know their risk is low and as long as plenty of people up and down the country are doing it they are cashing in. If you look at betting forms they like you to bet doing 1 from each section, things like that - never bet how the bookie wants you to.

I never do more than 3 selections, 2-3 certs, keep the odds in your favour, i have to bet big but the returns are better.


Yeah, preferably 2 or 3 selections, or a treble within a 4fold if you think 3 will win but not 100% sure of which 3 of the 4. You'll get your stake back plus possibly more if just 3 win. (1 line of 4 wins, the other 3 don't) Your stake is protected and you have survived a week's loss. A treble of 4 lines coming in is usually half of what the 4fold would be. 1 line is stake back, give or take depending on which 3 came in.

If you're doing just a 4fold, you may as well knock the least likely result of the 4 (may be the longest odds result) and do a treble. The odds may halve but the likelihood of winning is greater. However, if it's a cert such as Man Utd v Reading, sometimes include it to bump up a low odds acca. This can apply to double or trebles.

If you have odds of 3/1 on a regular basis then you have to win every 4th bet to break even. Not only is this possible with a good system or method but you can start to make either a regular return and build your pot and stake, if you want to. Going for wild and long odds means that 1 winner gives you plenty of weeks before the winnings run down, but it's unlikely you'll build anything.

When you look at the fixtures/ coupon, it's a good idea to start with League 2, then League 1, Championship and Prem. If you do it from top to bottom you never get to the bottom with all the 'umming' and 'arrghing', or if you do, you're losing patience and focus of what it is you're looking at or for. If you do it bottom to top, that way you'll either have a few certs, and/or a lot of choices before looking at a Prem list in a league where there aren't as many wins in the lower leagues and leagues where there's 8 more games.

Don't ever select the top 4 all to win, it rarely ever happens. Don't bet on or against Stoke in the league. They're hard to beat which means draws. Don't change your thinking if it works. If a week didn't return but has been before, chances are it will next week or the week after. Add 1 week to the average odds you go for and if you win more than once every 2,3,4 weeks then you're winning.

 


COYP

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Pussay Patrol Flag 08 Jan 13 1.48pm

I usually focus on the lower leagues and avoid the premiership. In the premiership there's a big gap between top and bottom but the clubs at the bottom aren't poor sides in decline they just lack depth and quality in their squad plus the odds are poor value.

In the lower leagues some teams are woefully out of form and cannot defend, leak goals and have a habit of losing, they also might have lots of injuries and this is when to get on.

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

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MKeagle Flag Newton Leys 11 Jan 13 1.44pm Send a Private Message to MKeagle Add MKeagle as a friend

Any tips for this weekend? Based on some of the suggestions/ideas above, I have my eye on this treble:

MK DONS to beat Bury

FLEETWOOD to beat Brizzle Rovers

ROTHERHAM to beat Barnet

Pays at just under 3/1 (2.7/1 to be precise) - only slight nervousness is due to living in MK, the MK Dons seem to always fcuk up my acca's!! And clearly the odds do not suggest I'll be paying off the mortgage if it comes in. Could do with possibly adding 1 more game perhaps?!

 


When Geoff went up to lift the Zenith Cup I was there, I was there....

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Geoff Tipps Flag Kent 11 Jan 13 2.07pm Send a Private Message to Geoff Tipps Add Geoff Tipps as a friend

Man Utd to beat Liverpool at Old Trafford and Man City to beat Arsenal at the Emirates isn't a bad shout.

Current odds on Skybet are 3.95/1...

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 11 Jan 13 3.09pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Quote MKeagle at 11 Jan 2013 1.44pm

only slight nervousness is due to living in MK, the MK Dons seem to always fcuk up my acca's!! And clearly the odds do not suggest I'll be paying off the mortgage if it comes in. Could do with possibly adding 1 more game perhaps?!


I haven't looked at the coupon yet but MK Dons have some serious injury problems and lost 2 home games immediately after suffering the injuries. Both against much lesser sides. There will probably be better options for your treble and if you do go with that treble, don't add another if you're not confident on the 3, you're adding to the likelihood the bookies will take your money. Isn't it better to have 2 weeks where you win 2/1 or 3/1 on the same stake in both weeks than losing in the 1st week with an 8/1 4fold?

 


COYP

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npn Flag Crowborough 11 Jan 13 3.11pm Send a Private Message to npn Add npn as a friend

Quote Geoff Tipps at 11 Jan 2013 2.07pm

Man Utd to beat Liverpool at Old Trafford and Man City to beat Arsenal at the Emirates isn't a bad shout.

Current odds on Skybet are 3.95/1...


SkyBet odds are not great, but I signed up for an account this week on the back of a free £10 to bet, no catches, and not even any deposit required

 

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Geoff Tipps Flag Kent 11 Jan 13 3.30pm Send a Private Message to Geoff Tipps Add Geoff Tipps as a friend

Quote npn at 11 Jan 2013 3.11pm

Quote Geoff Tipps at 11 Jan 2013 2.07pm

Man Utd to beat Liverpool at Old Trafford and Man City to beat Arsenal at the Emirates isn't a bad shout.

Current odds on Skybet are 3.95/1...


SkyBet odds are not great, but I signed up for an account this week on the back of a free £10 to bet, no catches, and not even any deposit required


Yeah Sky seem to be a lot less restrictive with their free bets whereas sites like Bet365 will make you jump through hoops to ever stand a chance of profiting from it. For good odds I usually use Betvictor but I’m using my SkyBet account a lot lately with the free £5 bet they give you every week (as long as you spend over £5 in the previous). Not a bad deal for me as I only usually put down a 10er a weekend... well £5 now.

Edited by Geoff Tipps (11 Jan 2013 3.31pm)

 

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MKeagle Flag Newton Leys 11 Jan 13 3.54pm Send a Private Message to MKeagle Add MKeagle as a friend

Good shout Rudi, you've helped my decision on the Dons. I only had a quick look, will review properly tonight, and wait for yours and PP's suggestions too

Cheers!

Quote Rudi Hedman at 11 Jan 2013 3.09pm

Quote MKeagle at 11 Jan 2013 1.44pm

only slight nervousness is due to living in MK, the MK Dons seem to always fcuk up my acca's!! And clearly the odds do not suggest I'll be paying off the mortgage if it comes in. Could do with possibly adding 1 more game perhaps?!


I haven't looked at the coupon yet but MK Dons have some serious injury problems and lost 2 home games immediately after suffering the injuries. Both against much lesser sides. There will probably be better options for your treble and if you do go with that treble, don't add another if you're not confident on the 3, you're adding to the likelihood the bookies will take your money. Isn't it better to have 2 weeks where you win 2/1 or 3/1 on the same stake in both weeks than losing in the 1st week with an 8/1 4fold?


 


When Geoff went up to lift the Zenith Cup I was there, I was there....

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 11 Jan 13 6.48pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Quote MKeagle at 11 Jan 2013 3.54pm

Quote Rudi Hedman at 11 Jan 2013 3.09pm

Quote MKeagle at 11 Jan 2013 1.44pm

only slight nervousness is due to living in MK, the MK Dons seem to always fcuk up my acca's!! And clearly the odds do not suggest I'll be paying off the mortgage if it comes in. Could do with possibly adding 1 more game perhaps?!


I haven't looked at the coupon yet but MK Dons have some serious injury problems and lost 2 home games immediately after suffering the injuries. Both against much lesser sides. There will probably be better options for your treble and if you do go with that treble, don't add another if you're not confident on the 3, you're adding to the likelihood the bookies will take your money. Isn't it better to have 2 weeks where you win 2/1 or 3/1 on the same stake in both weeks than losing in the 1st week with an 8/1 4fold?

Good shout Rudi, you've helped my decision on the Dons. I only had a quick look, will review properly tonight, and wait for yours and PP's suggestions too

Cheers!


Had a look at the coupon. MK Dons at home to Bury. Bury are p1ss poor so maybe worth a go. MK Dons need a home result but there's always Bury to get their 1st win in 8 games. Having said all that, 8/15 isn't great and probably not worth it.

(P.S - can you post at the bottom of discussions, it's easier to follow than at the top. Thanks)

Edited by Rudi Hedman (11 Jan 2013 7.12pm)

 


COYP

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 11 Jan 13 7.02pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

All prices taken off a William Hill high st coupon. (easier to read and do rather than multiple tabs. Prices are better online)

Hot bets:

FLEETWOOD 4/6 v Bristol Rovers
ROTHERHAM 4/7 V Barnet
Fleetwood, Rotherham double = 1.6/1

Others less so...

BURTON 11/10 v Torquay
CHELTENHAM 10/11 v York
MK DONS 8/15 v Bury (Be careful, 8/15 prob not worth it)
Oldham v BRENTFORD 6/5
Barnsley v LEEDS 13/8
FOREST 7/10 v Pboro
HULL 7/10 v SHEFF WED
EVERTON 8/13 v Swansea

Fleetwood, Rotherham double = 1.6/1
Fleetwood, Rotherham, Hull treble = 3.5/1
Fleetwood, Rotherham, Everton treble = 3.2/1

Fleetwood, Rotherham, Hull, Everton 4fold = 6.2/1
(halve this for a treble within a 4fold. zero, stake or 3/1 return)

Edited by Rudi Hedman (11 Jan 2013 7.11pm)

 


COYP

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cardiff eagle Flag 11 Jan 13 11.25pm Send a Private Message to cardiff eagle Add cardiff eagle as a friend

I'm fancying a trixie of the following although may remove Doncaster due to new manager and keep it as a double.

Cheltenham
Brentford
Doncaster

 

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Pussay Patrol Flag 11 Jan 13 11.55pm

It's really tough this week, only 1 fixture stands out.

Bradford to beat Oxford - EVS - Weekend Banker

Whilst Oxford are in fairly good form, Bradford is not a happy hunting ground for them. Their main striker is suspended. Bradford will play the same team that beat Villa.

I might just do the single or put them in a double with Hull (4/6) which would be about 9/4

Doncaster to win at Stevenage is interesting - 7/4 - But now Saunders has gone it's put me off slightly

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

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