The chance of it happening is far, far larger than it not at this stage. You're ignoring several things here such as improvement in charging infrastructure and battery charge times, range and so on. We haven't peaked in that regard, nowhere near it.

Rapid charging will and is developing as it is the holy grail... get things down to a 5 minute charge (or less) and there's little difference to todays refuelling. Not to mention that not all charging would be empty > full. Pretty quickly makes your scenario moot

The thing that has to be done is to time peak affordability and availability with peak charging accessibility. If that is off then yes, there will be problems... but at this point for anyone to stick their neck out and say that electric cars won't be the main form of personal transport in the future is counter to the reality.

I think you're right that full electrification won't be the case though outside of the consumer space – heavy machinery and some commercial vehicles will most likely continue to use diesel etc. for sometime, then change over to something like hydrogen. Similar trajectory for planes, shipping etc. Although even with that battery tech will continue to improve so who knows in 50 years time.

Hybrids are dead in the water, as is consumer level hydrogen. Both massively inefficient and impractical long term when compared with full electric.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (25 Jul 2023 1.18pm)

Greta is now 20 and seems to have blossomed into a bit of an angry Munter. Now, if i was being lectured on Climate-change by a cheerful Paige Spiraniac......well then....show me where i can sign up for the rally, can i save the Planet by carrying your golf-bags please Miss ?

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Edited by PalazioVecchio (25 Jul 2023 3.14pm)

A couple of points:
What will generate the electricity that charges the electric vehicles if oil and gas are to be phased out? Cloudy day will deliver how much solar power? Windless day will generate how much electricity? My favourite source of power would be tidal; virtually guaranteed generator of power.
What income revenue stream will replace the tax generated currently from petrol and diesel? Be prepared for freedom of movement being restricted to essential only journeys due to limited energy capacity.

Fossils will be gradually phased out. They have a major role to play for at least another 15-20 years… one can’t just decommission them all at once, nor is anyone suggesting that will be the case. Fossils will only be phased out completely once we have enough energy mix to be secure and not at the mercy as you point out, of dips that cannot be filled. Ironically battery farms and energy storage is a big part of that, as is wind, solar, tidal, decentralised, hydro, nuclear etc. I would also expect a small number of gas turbine power stations to be kept for some time after that as emergency peaking backup.

It never ceases to amaze me that people think the net zero strategy is to abruptly ditch all legacy power sources and switch over to a fully renewable grid. It will take time to transition away from reliance on fossil fuels, it’s not an instant fix. There are so many obvious reasons why that isn’t and never has been the reality or government strategy. Energy security being the main one, to counter your assumption about limited energy capacity - the government won’t sacrifice that for anything. It would be political and economic suicide.

Replacing fuel duty - potential political hot potato. Whatever they implement it will need to be cost neutral (no more expensive to the consumer than it is now). My guess is some sort of pay as you drive system - anything more complex creates data and privacy debates that the electorate will take a dim view of.

As mentioned previously diesel and hydrogen will be used commercially for decades to come, that will also contribute to the tax mix.

Edited by SW19 CPFC (26 Jul 2023 12.38am)

Also I have a fear that the brainwashed eco-zealots will just widen their protests to include existing sources of ‘old’ power, not just new gas and oil developments.

how soon before we get in trouble for calling them that ? The new holier than thou class. The throwing of Christianity onto the scrapheap was hand in glove with getting a new set of Clergymen. ahem, Clergypeople. Climate change and rainbow flags. Preaching at us about how wicked we all are.

And we must atone for our Climate sins. Meanwhile these glitterati all drive posh cars themselves. What car does Lineker drive ?

the next lockdowns will not be for a Virus.....they will be for a manufactured 'climate crisis'.